2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

Interesting. Economist has them neck and neck, with an edge for Trump. But the trend lines don’t look good for Trump. Of course Trump is counting on the Georgia election board to help him to victory and the polls don’t capture that.

+1 Board of Election races have now become hyper partisan in the swing states.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/18/trump-election-georgia

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

So if you continue the math there, what percentage of support do you think Trump has with female voters?

[Anonymous]

Q poll is a rated.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Q poll is a rated.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

They said Biden was up by +11 over Trump nationally in 2020. They had Biden winning Pennsylvania by 7 points, even Florida by 5 points, a state he lost. They are a Democrat pollster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Q poll is a rated.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

They said Biden was up by +11 over Trump nationally in 2020. They had Biden winning Pennsylvania by 7 points, even Florida by 5 points, a state he lost. They are a Democrat pollster.

Last time I checked, Biden won PA in 2020. So what’s the issue?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Q poll is a rated.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

They said Biden was up by +11 over Trump nationally in 2020. They had Biden winning Pennsylvania by 7 points, even Florida by 5 points, a state he lost. They are a Democrat pollster.

Last time I checked, Biden won PA in 2020. So what’s the issue?

That pp can’t spell the word “Democratic,” probably.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Q poll is a rated.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

They said Biden was up by +11 over Trump nationally in 2020. They had Biden winning Pennsylvania by 7 points, even Florida by 5 points, a state he lost. They are a Democrat pollster.

It is a university in Connecticut, not a "democratic pollster"

[Anonymous]

Matching Biden’s 9-point win in Maine in 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

I'm sure men will change their tune when their wives die in childbirth and they're single fathers with dead end jobs with no affordable daycare options.

Please.. they don't see it that way. They'll think it was God's will that their wives died in childbirth, and they will blame the immigrants for their inability to afford things.

Also, no one thinks they or their loved ones will need an abortion until they do.

And then afterwards they "regret" it and cover up their guilt but fighting to prevent anyone else from having the right to "suffer" the way they did. (But they won't support things like pre-emptive contraceptive care or post-natal care, of course).
"The only moral abortion is my abortion."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

I'm not sure how much of a fan I am of models that hinge on betting markets. It would be nice if someone had done some sort of correlative study on a) the markets and election results, and b) the participants of the market, in terms of their voting status, as well as R, D, Ind.

None. This is Gambling .

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

I'm not sure how much of a fan I am of models that hinge on betting markets. It would be nice if someone had done some sort of correlative study on a) the markets and election results, and b) the participants of the market, in terms of their voting status, as well as R, D, Ind.

It's just another data point which happened to be right in the last few elections (and betting markets for Presidential elections haven't been around that long). It doesn't mean it will this time. That said, betting markets are actually quite efficient in terms of digesting new information and incorporating it into a consensus view of predicted events.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Matching Biden’s 9-point win in Maine in 2020.

Trump looks like he will get an electoral vote from ME-02.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Matching Biden’s 9-point win in Maine in 2020.

Trump looks like he will get an electoral vote from ME-02.

Yes, as he did in 2016 and 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Matching Biden’s 9-point win in Maine in 2020.

Trump looks like he will get an electoral vote from ME-02.

Yes, that’s not news.