2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The national polls all look really good for Harris. Up by 4-6 generally. And even some non-competitive states are looking possible. The Des Moines Register has Trump up by only 4 in Iowa. In Georgia, he's up by 1. In NC, just 2. Florida is in play. And with both abortion and legal weed on the ballot there, Democrats have a real shot of taking Florida. Game over if that happens.

It's shaping up nicely right now. And there's still the Vance debate to look forward to. That man is an anvil for Trump. The more he's in the public eye, the better.

Except there will be a false flag "illegal immigrant" terrorist attack - Trump has been seeding and projecting that for months, and who knows what other effery they will try between now and then.

Chickens? Count the cats and geese.


Not inconceivable at all.
I think what’s going against that sort of shenanigans now though is that it’s expected. The Springfield thing is running into heavy headwinds because it is so ugly and obvious. Not to count any chickens but we are all much more aware.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The national polls all look really good for Harris. Up by 4-6 generally. And even some non-competitive states are looking possible. The Des Moines Register has Trump up by only 4 in Iowa. In Georgia, he's up by 1. In NC, just 2. Florida is in play. And with both abortion and legal weed on the ballot there, Democrats have a real shot of taking Florida. Game over if that happens.

It's shaping up nicely right now. And there's still the Vance debate to look forward to. That man is an anvil for Trump. The more he's in the public eye, the better.

Except there will be a false flag "illegal immigrant" terrorist attack - Trump has been seeding and projecting that for months, and who knows what other effery they will try between now and then.

Not inconceivable at all.
I think what’s going against that sort of shenanigans now though is that it’s expected. The Springfield thing is running into heavy headwinds because it is so ugly and obvious. Not to count any chickens but we are all much more aware.

Chickens? Count the cats and geese.

[Anonymous]

https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

That is an interesting read. These debates are so important. The first one sank Biden and the second one sank Trump.

They are effective at exposing severe limitations in the candidates. Harris was able to fluster Trump so easily and she exposed why he is completely inappropriate for the presidency.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

What’s interesting about the economist model is the Florida graph. Steady decline for Trump though he is favored to win. Probably concerning for his campaign though as the Harris vote line is going up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

I'm not sure how much of a fan I am of models that hinge on betting markets. It would be nice if someone had done some sort of correlative study on a) the markets and election results, and b) the participants of the market, in terms of their voting status, as well as R, D, Ind.

[Anonymous]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

Interesting. Economist has them neck and neck, with an edge for Trump. But the trend lines don’t look good for Trump. Of course Trump is counting on the Georgia election board to help him to victory and the polls don’t capture that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

Interesting. Economist has them neck and neck, with an edge for Trump. But the trend lines don’t look good for Trump. Of course Trump is counting on the Georgia election board to help him to victory and the polls don’t capture that.

AJC is a local and very reliable Georgia pollster.

[Anonymous]

I refuse to give myself over to confidence, but I will enjoy this optimism for the moment

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[img]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PA mail-in ballot requests:

2020, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 1,101,962 (+725,000)
🔴GOP: 376,956

2024, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 798,946 (+477,869)
🔴GOP: 321,077

Sourced, without attribution, via two Republicans, including Eric Daughtery, who several pps have said is full of crap.

Cite your sources.

Easily accessible on PA Dept of Elections.

Definitely not "easily accessible" on the PA Dept of Elections. I spent about 15-20 min on the site and could not find these statistics. The closest I could come was the Voting & Election Statics page
https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/dos/resources/voting-and-elections-resources/voting-and-election-statistics.html
but there are no statistics on the number of mail-in ballots requested, only number of voters registered.

If you search, you can find letter from the Secretary of State with the deadline for the primary mail-in ballots. The letter says that as of April 9, there were 835K Pennsylvanians that had applied for a mail-in ballot.

So where is this "easily accessible" source for your numbers?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

I'm sure men will change their tune when their wives die in childbirth and they're single fathers with dead end jobs with no affordable daycare options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

Gosh, a bunch of southern rednecks don't want to vote for a woman of color. I'm so shocked.. not really.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-finds-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-are-locked-in-a-tight-race-in-georgia/C5CQ6742V5AHVIDUVQ77LQ7YMY/

Trump leads Harris in a Georgia 47%-44%, according to Atlanta Journal Consitution.

Kamala has 35% support among male voters

I'm sure men will change their tune when their wives die in childbirth and they're single fathers with dead end jobs with no affordable daycare options.

Please.. they don't see it that way. They'll think it was God's will that their wives died in childbirth, and they will blame the immigrants for their inability to afford things.

Also, no one thinks they or their loved ones will need an abortion until they do.