Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

Two deaths is reassuring to you? Out of 13 confirmed cases? That's a 15% mortality rate. After 6 weeks of circulation, it's about to take off, just as it did in Wuhan, as it did in Northern Italy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

This was my initial thought too. But I imagine 6 weeks ago there were only a handful of people who had it. It may take this long to really spread to enough people to have statistical significance. I guess time will tell ...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

Two deaths is reassuring to you? Out of 13 confirmed cases? That's a 15% mortality rate. After 6 weeks of circulation, it's about to take off, just as it did in Wuhan, as it did in Northern Italy.

13 confirmed cases means there are probably many more. The initial mortality rate is always high.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

This was my initial thought too. But I imagine 6 weeks ago there were only a handful of people who had it. It may take this long to really spread to enough people to have statistical significance. I guess time will tell ...

lol, I was an early adopter too. You should head over to r/covid19 for some intelligent conversation. They discussed this question there, and there seem to be two different opinions: 1 - exponential growth is slow in the beginning. That’s just intrinsic. So there are still just a few hundred cases. Or 2 - the rate of mild cases is very high.

[Anonymous]

Wait for weeks 8-12 to see hospital overwhelm.

Earlier if there is a "super spreading" event like a big Carnival party, or a big soccer game, concernt, etc right when a lot of people are infected. Or. a cult church service...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

Perhaps because it’s mild/asymptomatic for more people than we think. That’s why we shouldn’t get too fixated on specific %s.

It’s still early though. Lots of unknowns.

Na - it takes time for a cluster to grow with the long incubation period. We should also be testing contacts based on what the WHO says. Speed is everything.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

This was my initial thought too. But I imagine 6 weeks ago there were only a handful of people who had it. It may take this long to really spread to enough people to have statistical significance. I guess time will tell ...

lol, I was an early adopter too. You should head over to r/covid19 for some intelligent conversation. They discussed this question there, and there seem to be two different opinions: 1 - exponential growth is slow in the beginning. That’s just intrinsic. So there are still just a few hundred cases. Or 2 - the rate of mild cases is very high.

NP here. I said quite a bit earlier in this thread that it would be #2. The virus is not containable but, fortunately, it is also not nearly as deadly as initially feared. The vast majority of people who are infected with this virus do not get that sick.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

This was my initial thought too. But I imagine 6 weeks ago there were only a handful of people who had it. It may take this long to really spread to enough people to have statistical significance. I guess time will tell ...

lol, I was an early adopter too. You should head over to r/covid19 for some intelligent conversation. They discussed this question there, and there seem to be two different opinions: 1 - exponential growth is slow in the beginning. That’s just intrinsic. So there are still just a few hundred cases. Or 2 - the rate of mild cases is very high.

NP here. I said quite a bit earlier in this thread that it would be #2. The virus is not containable but, fortunately, it is also not nearly as deadly as initially feared. The vast majority of people who are infected with this virus do not get that sick.

You need to tell Northern Italy that. And Iran.

[Anonymous]

^ They haven't gotten the memo.

[Anonymous]

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/public-health-emergency-declared-in-florida-after-2-confirmed-cases-of-coronavirus

Two in Florida

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

This was my initial thought too. But I imagine 6 weeks ago there were only a handful of people who had it. It may take this long to really spread to enough people to have statistical significance. I guess time will tell ...

lol, I was an early adopter too. You should head over to r/covid19 for some intelligent conversation. They discussed this question there, and there seem to be two different opinions: 1 - exponential growth is slow in the beginning. That’s just intrinsic. So there are still just a few hundred cases. Or 2 - the rate of mild cases is very high.

NP here. I said quite a bit earlier in this thread that it would be #2. The virus is not containable but, fortunately, it is also not nearly as deadly as initially feared. The vast majority of people who are infected with this virus do not get that sick.

You need to tell Northern Italy that. And Iran.

DP. But we don’t know how many mild cases they have.

[Anonymous]

On new case in Oregon, a contact of the first case. Person is "affiliated with a local school."

[Anonymous]

Two first cases in Florida.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was one of the early adopters of coronavirus panic. I‘ve been following it closely for a month.
So here’s my question. Genetic testing in WA is showing that it’s been circulating in that state for 6 weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-spread-undetected-for-weeks-in-washington-state/2020/03/01/0f292336-5bcc-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
Even with a two week incubation period, shouldn’t hospitals in WA be overwhelmed by now, if it really has the 20% hospitalization rate reported in China?
Maybe I am massively misinterpreting this but my takeaway is, oddly, some relief. I don’t care if it’s been quietly circulating for a month and a half, if it turns out that it’s impact is NOT as dire as predicted.

This was my initial thought too. But I imagine 6 weeks ago there were only a handful of people who had it. It may take this long to really spread to enough people to have statistical significance. I guess time will tell ...

lol, I was an early adopter too. You should head over to r/covid19 for some intelligent conversation. They discussed this question there, and there seem to be two different opinions: 1 - exponential growth is slow in the beginning. That’s just intrinsic. So there are still just a few hundred cases. Or 2 - the rate of mild cases is very high.

NP here. I said quite a bit earlier in this thread that it would be #2. The virus is not containable but, fortunately, it is also not nearly as deadly as initially feared. The vast majority of people who are infected with this virus do not get that sick.

I’ve suspected #2 as well. Don’t get too fixated on %s because we don’t really know the total cases yet.

We just started testing so many cases will likely be identified quickly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Two first cases in Florida.

Hope it’s not a crowded place like orlando