2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

CNN
—
One of the best pollsters in America recently came out with its latest survey, and it’s good news for Kamala Harris.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., found Donald Trump at 47% to the vice president’s 43% – within the margin of error – in a state the former president has twice won comfortably. (The poll was conducted last week, before Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt against Trump.)

While the Hawkeye State is unlikely to be pivotal in November, the fact that Selzer found a close race in a state Trump has dominated could signal good things for Harris, both in terms of the accuracy of polling and for her chances in next-door Wisconsin.

What makes the Selzer survey so important is that it’s been accurate in an era when other pollsters have struggled.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Unfortunately, national polls are irrelevant.

They are indicators of national sentiment and that includes swing states. You look at them in combination with the state polls.

National polls are somewhat irrelevant when the margin in favor of Harris is 3% or less. At 4-5% they are indicators that Harris is more likely to win than lose. 6%+ means she'd win if she election were held today.

[Anonymous]

[url]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Unfortunately, national polls are irrelevant.

They are indicators of national sentiment and that includes swing states. You look at them in combination with the state polls.

National polls are somewhat irrelevant when the margin in favor of Harris is 3% or less. At 4-5% they are indicators that Harris is more likely to win than lose. 6%+ means she'd win if she election were held today.

You are delusional if you think Kamala up by 6 percent nationally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[url]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Unfortunately, national polls are irrelevant.

They are indicators of national sentiment and that includes swing states. You look at them in combination with the state polls.

National polls are somewhat irrelevant when the margin in favor of Harris is 3% or less. At 4-5% they are indicators that Harris is more likely to win than lose. 6%+ means she'd win if she election were held today.

You are delusional if you think Kamala up by 6 percent nationally.

That's not what I said.

[Anonymous]

This Morning Consilt poll is a joke. In 2020, they said Biden was up by 7 nationally, and was even tied with Trump in Texas.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/947203/biden-tops-50-percent-key-battleground-states-final-2020-morning-consult-polls

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[url]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Unfortunately, national polls are irrelevant.

They are indicators of national sentiment and that includes swing states. You look at them in combination with the state polls.

National polls are somewhat irrelevant when the margin in favor of Harris is 3% or less. At 4-5% they are indicators that Harris is more likely to win than lose. 6%+ means she'd win if she election were held today.

You are delusional if you think Kamala up by 6 percent nationally.

Please point us to some data that backs up your position. NP

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[url]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Unfortunately, national polls are irrelevant.

They are indicators of national sentiment and that includes swing states. You look at them in combination with the state polls.

National polls are somewhat irrelevant when the margin in favor of Harris is 3% or less. At 4-5% they are indicators that Harris is more likely to win than lose. 6%+ means she'd win if she election were held today.

You are delusional if you think Kamala up by 6 percent nationally.

DP...why? Trump is literally melting before the country's eyes. He and his VP are castigating anyone who isn't white, straight, male and Christian. Women, people of color and legal immigrants are feeling under fire from the right. Mainstream republicans are repudiating Trump as well. 6 points seems small given the rhetoric.

[Anonymous]

If Florida is honestly in play, the it could be game over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

If Florida is honestly in play, the it could be game over.

This is the same joke Morning Consult poll that said Biden was polling over 50% in Florida last time - Biden was supposedly leading in Florida and he lost.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This Morning Consilt poll is a joke. In 2020, they said Biden was up by 7 nationally, and was even tied with Trump in Texas.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/947203/biden-tops-50-percent-key-battleground-states-final-2020-morning-consult-polls

The election that led Texas Republicans to admit that Texas is, in fact, a blue state now but they are artificially making it red by voter suppression.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

If Florida is honestly in play, the it could be game over.

How many Republican voters did Desantis kill with his covid games is a relevant question.

[Anonymous]

PA mail-in ballot requests:

2020, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 1,101,962 (+725,000)
🔴GOP: 376,956

2024, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 798,946 (+477,869)
🔴GOP: 321,077

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[url]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Unfortunately, national polls are irrelevant.

They are indicators of national sentiment and that includes swing states. You look at them in combination with the state polls.

National polls are somewhat irrelevant when the margin in favor of Harris is 3% or less. At 4-5% they are indicators that Harris is more likely to win than lose. 6%+ means she'd win if she election were held today.

You are delusional if you think Kamala up by 6 percent nationally.

DP...why? Trump is literally melting before the country's eyes. He and his VP are castigating anyone who isn't white, straight, male and Christian. Women, people of color and legal immigrants are feeling under fire from the right. Mainstream republicans are repudiating Trump as well. 6 points seems small given the rhetoric.

I am the second PP above. Harris is not up 6% nationally. According to the poll aggregators (NYTimes, Nate Silver, 538) she is currently up by about 3%. Two recent polls (Morning Consult and Big Village) do have her up by 5-7%, but we'll need more polls in that range to drive up the average.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If Florida is honestly in play, the it could be game over.

This is the same joke Morning Consult poll that said Biden was polling over 50% in Florida last time - Biden was supposedly leading in Florida and he lost.

Was abortion or pot on the ballot in 2020?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PA mail-in ballot requests:

2020, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 1,101,962 (+725,000)
🔴GOP: 376,956

2024, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 798,946 (+477,869)
🔴GOP: 321,077

COVID was rampant in 2020 and we had no vaccine. Less people requesting mail in ballot in 2024.