2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Amazing to think people would believe that Harris would do better than Biden, a middle class guy from Pennsylvania, known as “Scranton Joe”.

"Scranton Joe" was showing signs that he wasn't up to the next four years as POTUS. That was clear from the debate, and that was why all polls showed Trump ahead of Biden.

Those polls were done to force Biden to step aside. Had he been the intended nominee, you'd have never seen his polls lagging.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Men 18-29 deleting spam text polls. Numbers will be higher.

And women married to conservative men who tell their husbands they are voting for Trump, and will answer polls that they are voting for Trump, but will actually vote for Harris. The women's vote will be much higher for Harris than for Trump than polls show.

Women are roughly 55% of those likely to vote vs 45% of men.

There are also record new voter registrations of young 18-30 year old voters who will be voting first time this election. And 18-30 trend about 65-80% Democratic. Harris and Walz are visiting college towns and getting young voters hyped and getting many of them to register to vote.

There are likely more hidden or uncounted Harris voters than hidden Trump voters.

This is what we told ourselves before Hillary lost. Truth is that there are many women who actually support Trump.

There are many parallels to 2016.

Dobbs changed everything. But that doesn’t mean we should let up keep volunteering. Keep donating keep encouraging friends and families to vote for Harris and vote early.

And the insurrection. We also have all the ugly details about the Stormy Daniels affair without any hush money interference. Oh, and the criminal convictions. Oh, and the defamation case he lost for lying about assaulting e jean Carroll.

And four years under Trump, which were a disaster. He's not the new, shiny thing anymore.

Unfortunately I think you all are delusional. This is going to be a nailbiter in the worst possible way.

The reality is the average American has less purchasing power than they did 4 years ago. many people blame Democrats for that. I don't agree with them, but for those people it is something they are reminded of on a daily basis. They will forget the debate. They have already forgotten January 6. Harris is the underdog and needs to keep the news cycle focused on how crazy, confused and hateful Trump is and how he and his friends will let women bleed out in parking lots. Instead we are all talking about immigration, which is unfortunately a losing issue for Democrats (again, don't agree, I am an immigrant myself and the anti immigrant rhetoric literally pains me). This is going to be a tough road for Harris. I really hope she wins but I think Trump has the advantage in this race.

[Anonymous]

Why is Silver's newest PA poll still a poll ending September 6th?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why is Silver's newest PA poll still a poll ending September 6th?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

They do one daily update at 4:30pm. They are a two-man show.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

IMO
AND ONLY IMO
I THINK POLLING WILL BE OFF AFTER SUNDAY EVENT. TRUMP WILL GET ANOTHER BOUNCE LIKE HE DID LAST TIME HE GOT SHOT.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:IMO
AND ONLY IMO
I THINK POLLING WILL BE OFF AFTER SUNDAY EVENT. TRUMP WILL GET ANOTHER BOUNCE LIKE HE DID LAST TIME HE GOT SHOT.

He didn't get shot (this time) - there wasn't even a bullet fired by the alleged assassin.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Men 18-29 deleting spam text polls. Numbers will be higher.

And women married to conservative men who tell their husbands they are voting for Trump, and will answer polls that they are voting for Trump, but will actually vote for Harris. The women's vote will be much higher for Harris than for Trump than polls show.

Women are roughly 55% of those likely to vote vs 45% of men.

There are also record new voter registrations of young 18-30 year old voters who will be voting first time this election. And 18-30 trend about 65-80% Democratic. Harris and Walz are visiting college towns and getting young voters hyped and getting many of them to register to vote.

There are likely more hidden or uncounted Harris voters than hidden Trump voters.

This is what we told ourselves before Hillary lost. Truth is that there are many women who actually support Trump.

There are many parallels to 2016.

Dobbs changed everything. But that doesn’t mean we should let up keep volunteering. Keep donating keep encouraging friends and families to vote for Harris and vote early.

And the insurrection. We also have all the ugly details about the Stormy Daniels affair without any hush money interference. Oh, and the criminal convictions. Oh, and the defamation case he lost for lying about assaulting e jean Carroll.

And four years under Trump, which were a disaster. He's not the new, shiny thing anymore.

Unfortunately I think you all are delusional. This is going to be a nailbiter in the worst possible way.

The reality is the average American has less purchasing power than they did 4 years ago. many people blame Democrats for that. I don't agree with them, but for those people it is something they are reminded of on a daily basis. They will forget the debate. They have already forgotten January 6. Harris is the underdog and needs to keep the news cycle focused on how crazy, confused and hateful Trump is and how he and his friends will let women bleed out in parking lots. Instead we are all talking about immigration, which is unfortunately a losing issue for Democrats (again, don't agree, I am an immigrant myself and the anti immigrant rhetoric literally pains me). This is going to be a tough road for Harris. I really hope she wins but I think Trump has the advantage in this race.

Well, if they cared about facts they'd know that Trump tariffs will give them even less than they do now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Men 18-29 deleting spam text polls. Numbers will be higher.

And women married to conservative men who tell their husbands they are voting for Trump, and will answer polls that they are voting for Trump, but will actually vote for Harris. The women's vote will be much higher for Harris than for Trump than polls show.

Women are roughly 55% of those likely to vote vs 45% of men.

There are also record new voter registrations of young 18-30 year old voters who will be voting first time this election. And 18-30 trend about 65-80% Democratic. Harris and Walz are visiting college towns and getting young voters hyped and getting many of them to register to vote.

There are likely more hidden or uncounted Harris voters than hidden Trump voters.

This is what we told ourselves before Hillary lost. Truth is that there are many women who actually support Trump.

There are many parallels to 2016.

Dobbs changed everything. But that doesn’t mean we should let up keep volunteering. Keep donating keep encouraging friends and families to vote for Harris and vote early.

And the insurrection. We also have all the ugly details about the Stormy Daniels affair without any hush money interference. Oh, and the criminal convictions. Oh, and the defamation case he lost for lying about assaulting e jean Carroll.

And four years under Trump, which were a disaster. He's not the new, shiny thing anymore.

Unfortunately I think you all are delusional. This is going to be a nailbiter in the worst possible way.

The reality is the average American has less purchasing power than they did 4 years ago. many people blame Democrats for that. I don't agree with them, but for those people it is something they are reminded of on a daily basis. They will forget the debate. They have already forgotten January 6. Harris is the underdog and needs to keep the news cycle focused on how crazy, confused and hateful Trump is and how he and his friends will let women bleed out in parking lots. Instead we are all talking about immigration, which is unfortunately a losing issue for Democrats (again, don't agree, I am an immigrant myself and the anti immigrant rhetoric literally pains me). This is going to be a tough road for Harris. I really hope she wins but I think Trump has the advantage in this race.

Well, if they cared about facts they'd know that Trump tariffs will give them even less than they do now.

You are preaching to the choir my friend

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

With the exception of 2016, PA has not voted for a for a Republican for President since George HW Bush in 1984.

2016 was the exception because Trump's campaign was able to pull the Ninja attack and they canvassed the rural votes strongly and pulled an overwhelming turnout in rural and Republican suburban communities. This was a gross error by Clinton's campaign who did not believe that PA was a battleground state, so her campaign ignored the Trump campaign efforts. Biden's campaign was wise to this and did not allow that to happen in 2020 and once again, PA turned blue. As long as Harris' campaign ensures that the cities and suburbs come out to vote, it won't happen again.

Metropolitan Philadelphia has 50% of the population of the state. Metropolitan Pittsburgh 20%. Metropolitan Scranton, Allentown, Harrisburg, Eric and State College have another 10% of the state. These areas lean blue by at least 60%. The rural counties only have 20% of the population. Harris just needs to GOTV in the metro areas and not allow Trump to swing suburban voters to vote red and she'll win again.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Unfortunately, national polls are irrelevant.