School residency cheaters investigated

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The census estimated there were 38,522 children aged 5-10 in DC in 2015. DCPS and charters reported 38,421 children enrolled in grades K-4 in 2015/16. In 2010, the American Community Survey estimated there were 4,784 DC children enrolled in private K-4. Doesn't capture home schooling. Even with margins of error and declines in private school enrollment since 2010, seems like DC has a couple thousand more kids enrolled in school than are in the census for DC.



Oooh! I like your research!


Good thinking to look in these numbers! Question: Seems like ages 5-10 is 6 years worth of children, but K-4 is only 5 grades. Is there a mismatch?


Citing some links would be useful. According to this for 2014 kids from 5-11 in D.C. = 41,551
http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/101-child-population-by-age-group#detailed/2/10/false/869/62,63,64,6,4693/419,420

and for enrollment for 2014/2015 for k-6 = 24,353
http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

and for k-4 for 2015/16 = 20,161

Somebody correct my math, maybe i am just doing this too quickly.


Here is what i used:

charter enrollment: http://www.dcpcsb.org/data/student-enrollment
DCPS enrollment: http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment
census: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2015/PEPSYASEX?slice=GEO~0400000US11

can't find the ACS with private school right now. I couldn't find by year, just by group, which is why it cut off at 4th not 5th.


I can't believe I spent part of a Friday night looking for this. But here is a 2014 ACS table on private school enrollment: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/14_1YR/C14002/0400000US11

Also -- I don't know if the census undercounts kids, and, yes, the 2015 number is not a direct census, but the methodology they use to get to the 2015 numbers seems OK. Does the census undercount kids by ~10%? That's how many extra kids my kludgy math comes up with for DCPS + charter + private compared to the census for the elementary school years. Not proof that there are extra kids in DC public schools but food for thought.


the last census was in 2010 and yes it undercounts siginicantly. these are numbers being picked out of the air.


"This report includes a high-level review of the issue of the undercount of children age 0-4 in censuses and
surveys. "
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2014/demo/2014-undercount-children.pdf
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The census estimated there were 38,522 children aged 5-10 in DC in 2015. DCPS and charters reported 38,421 children enrolled in grades K-4 in 2015/16. In 2010, the American Community Survey estimated there were 4,784 DC children enrolled in private K-4. Doesn't capture home schooling. Even with margins of error and declines in private school enrollment since 2010, seems like DC has a couple thousand more kids enrolled in school than are in the census for DC.



Oooh! I like your research!


Good thinking to look in these numbers! Question: Seems like ages 5-10 is 6 years worth of children, but K-4 is only 5 grades. Is there a mismatch?


Citing some links would be useful. According to this for 2014 kids from 5-11 in D.C. = 41,551
http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/101-child-population-by-age-group#detailed/2/10/false/869/62,63,64,6,4693/419,420

and for enrollment for 2014/2015 for k-6 = 24,353
http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

and for k-4 for 2015/16 = 20,161

Somebody correct my math, maybe i am just doing this too quickly.


Here is what i used:

charter enrollment: http://www.dcpcsb.org/data/student-enrollment
DCPS enrollment: http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment
census: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2015/PEPSYASEX?slice=GEO~0400000US11

can't find the ACS with private school right now. I couldn't find by year, just by group, which is why it cut off at 4th not 5th.


I can't believe I spent part of a Friday night looking for this. But here is a 2014 ACS table on private school enrollment: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/14_1YR/C14002/0400000US11

Also -- I don't know if the census undercounts kids, and, yes, the 2015 number is not a direct census, but the methodology they use to get to the 2015 numbers seems OK. Does the census undercount kids by ~10%? That's how many extra kids my kludgy math comes up with for DCPS + charter + private compared to the census for the elementary school years. Not proof that there are extra kids in DC public schools but food for thought.


the last census was in 2010 and yes it undercounts siginicantly. these are numbers being picked out of the air.


"This report includes a high-level review of the issue of the undercount of children age 0-4 in censuses and
surveys. "
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2014/demo/2014-undercount-children.pdf


"Persistent undercount of young children, ages 0 to 4, in the decennial census"
"4.6% net undercount in 2010, nearly 1 million young children"

"Children under the age of 5 were especially likely to be missed in the 2010 Census, with a net undercount of 4.6 percent"
https://www2.census.gov/census_2020/pmr_materials/2016-04-12/PrePMR%20The%20Undercount%20of%20Young%20Children.pdf

It appears that for age groups from 5 to 9 and 10 to 17 there is not a significant under count. Probably because school age children have to intersect with the government for purposes of public school and immunizations.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The census estimated there were 38,522 children aged 5-10 in DC in 2015. DCPS and charters reported 38,421 children enrolled in grades K-4 in 2015/16. In 2010, the American Community Survey estimated there were 4,784 DC children enrolled in private K-4. Doesn't capture home schooling. Even with margins of error and declines in private school enrollment since 2010, seems like DC has a couple thousand more kids enrolled in school than are in the census for DC.



Oooh! I like your research!


Good thinking to look in these numbers! Question: Seems like ages 5-10 is 6 years worth of children, but K-4 is only 5 grades. Is there a mismatch?


Citing some links would be useful. According to this for 2014 kids from 5-11 in D.C. = 41,551
http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/101-child-population-by-age-group#detailed/2/10/false/869/62,63,64,6,4693/419,420

and for enrollment for 2014/2015 for k-6 = 24,353
http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

and for k-4 for 2015/16 = 20,161

Somebody correct my math, maybe i am just doing this too quickly.


Here is what i used:

charter enrollment: http://www.dcpcsb.org/data/student-enrollment
DCPS enrollment: http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment
census: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2015/PEPSYASEX?slice=GEO~0400000US11

can't find the ACS with private school right now. I couldn't find by year, just by group, which is why it cut off at 4th not 5th.


I can't believe I spent part of a Friday night looking for this. But here is a 2014 ACS table on private school enrollment: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/14_1YR/C14002/0400000US11

Also -- I don't know if the census undercounts kids, and, yes, the 2015 number is not a direct census, but the methodology they use to get to the 2015 numbers seems OK. Does the census undercount kids by ~10%? That's how many extra kids my kludgy math comes up with for DCPS + charter + private compared to the census for the elementary school years. Not proof that there are extra kids in DC public schools but food for thought.


the last census was in 2010 and yes it undercounts siginicantly. these are numbers being picked out of the air.


"This report includes a high-level review of the issue of the undercount of children age 0-4 in censuses and
surveys. "
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2014/demo/2014-undercount-children.pdf


"Persistent undercount of young children, ages 0 to 4, in the decennial census"
"4.6% net undercount in 2010, nearly 1 million young children"

"Children under the age of 5 were especially likely to be missed in the 2010 Census, with a net undercount of 4.6 percent"
https://www2.census.gov/census_2020/pmr_materials/2016-04-12/PrePMR%20The%20Undercount%20of%20Young%20Children.pdf

It appears that for age groups from 5 to 9 and 10 to 17 there is not a significant under count. Probably because school age children have to intersect with the government for purposes of public school and immunizations.


The 5 to 10 age group gets under counted too
http://www.nonprofitvote.org/children-and-the-census/

"In the 2000 Census, the net undercount of children under 10 years old was 1 million; children under 5 account for over three quarters of this. The report notes a more pronounced discrepancy in rates of undercounted minority children. In 2000, black males under age 5 were missed at a rate of 5.3 percent, compared to 3.3 percent for non-black males in this age group. Among females, blacks under age 5 were missed at a rate of 5.4 percent, compared to 3.8 percent for non-blacks in this age group.
There are several factors that explain the high undercount of young children: Young children are more likely to live in households with 7+ occupants, which make it difficult to complete the census form with spaces for only six names; children are also more likely to live in places characterized as hard to count, including rental units, mobile homes, and complex households with adults other than parents. Looking ahead to the 2010 census, prospects for an accurate count of children do not look promising, as there has been an increase in the proportion of young children from minority populations from previous years, there are more children living with undocumented residents than in previous years, and an estimated two million children will be affected by the housing crisis which will add to the complexity of getting an accurate count."
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The census estimated there were 38,522 children aged 5-10 in DC in 2015. DCPS and charters reported 38,421 children enrolled in grades K-4 in 2015/16. In 2010, the American Community Survey estimated there were 4,784 DC children enrolled in private K-4. Doesn't capture home schooling. Even with margins of error and declines in private school enrollment since 2010, seems like DC has a couple thousand more kids enrolled in school than are in the census for DC.



Oooh! I like your research!


Good thinking to look in these numbers! Question: Seems like ages 5-10 is 6 years worth of children, but K-4 is only 5 grades. Is there a mismatch?


Citing some links would be useful. According to this for 2014 kids from 5-11 in D.C. = 41,551
http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/101-child-population-by-age-group#detailed/2/10/false/869/62,63,64,6,4693/419,420

and for enrollment for 2014/2015 for k-6 = 24,353
http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

and for k-4 for 2015/16 = 20,161

Somebody correct my math, maybe i am just doing this too quickly.


Here is what i used:

charter enrollment: http://www.dcpcsb.org/data/student-enrollment
DCPS enrollment: http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment
census: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2015/PEPSYASEX?slice=GEO~0400000US11

can't find the ACS with private school right now. I couldn't find by year, just by group, which is why it cut off at 4th not 5th.


I can't believe I spent part of a Friday night looking for this. But here is a 2014 ACS table on private school enrollment: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/14_1YR/C14002/0400000US11

Also -- I don't know if the census undercounts kids, and, yes, the 2015 number is not a direct census, but the methodology they use to get to the 2015 numbers seems OK. Does the census undercount kids by ~10%? That's how many extra kids my kludgy math comes up with for DCPS + charter + private compared to the census for the elementary school years. Not proof that there are extra kids in DC public schools but food for thought.


the last census was in 2010 and yes it undercounts siginicantly. these are numbers being picked out of the air.


"This report includes a high-level review of the issue of the undercount of children age 0-4 in censuses and
surveys. "
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2014/demo/2014-undercount-children.pdf


"Persistent undercount of young children, ages 0 to 4, in the decennial census"
"4.6% net undercount in 2010, nearly 1 million young children"

"Children under the age of 5 were especially likely to be missed in the 2010 Census, with a net undercount of 4.6 percent"
https://www2.census.gov/census_2020/pmr_materials/2016-04-12/PrePMR%20The%20Undercount%20of%20Young%20Children.pdf

It appears that for age groups from 5 to 9 and 10 to 17 there is not a significant under count. Probably because school age children have to intersect with the government for purposes of public school and immunizations.


The 5 to 10 age group gets under counted too
http://www.nonprofitvote.org/children-and-the-census/

"In the 2000 Census, the net undercount of children under 10 years old was 1 million; children under 5 account for over three quarters of this. The report notes a more pronounced discrepancy in rates of undercounted minority children. In 2000, black males under age 5 were missed at a rate of 5.3 percent, compared to 3.3 percent for non-black males in this age group. Among females, blacks under age 5 were missed at a rate of 5.4 percent, compared to 3.8 percent for non-blacks in this age group.
There are several factors that explain the high undercount of young children: Young children are more likely to live in households with 7+ occupants, which make it difficult to complete the census form with spaces for only six names; children are also more likely to live in places characterized as hard to count, including rental units, mobile homes, and complex households with adults other than parents. Looking ahead to the 2010 census, prospects for an accurate count of children do not look promising, as there has been an increase in the proportion of young children from minority populations from previous years, there are more children living with undocumented residents than in previous years, and an estimated two million children will be affected by the housing crisis which will add to the complexity of getting an accurate count."



That is still saying that 750,000 children that are under counted are under the age of 5 and that nationwide 250,000 are under counted from aged 5-10. Still worth considering the complex issues of D.C. with housing and poverty. Take the highest missed rate of 5.4% for a population under 5. Would it be safe to assume that the missed rate for children ages 5 to 10 would be at least half? Like a missed rate of 2.5%.
Anonymous
Don't forget that the census is an *estimate* with a sizeable margin of error. DCPS enrollment stats are an actual count. Apples, oranges. Next!
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/07/maryland-parent-uses-dc-apartment-to-prove-residency-so-kids-attend-district-schools/ The latest installment.


Why would she agree to speak with the reporters and be so candid/flippant?


Because she thinks what she is doing is common, clever, respectable, and 'legitimate.'


Exactly. I have coworkers who talk freely about fraudulently attending DC schools, receiving WIC/Food Stamps, etc. There is no stigma whatsoever about fraud.


Where do you work and what is your profession where people speak so boldly about their personal lives- multiple people especially.
Anonymous
Where is the DCUM statistician to testify in the court of public opinion?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:she could be technically able to claim residency on the shadow home but it's more likely it's being sub-leased without a formal lease. That would be the trail that would get someone busted if OSSE bothered to check for duplicate claims on a given residence. While it seems implausible to live in a home while it was being leased to someone else there are families doubled/tripled up to make ends meet and that can be claimed on DC residency. She could be the official name on the lease while others are "just staying there" temporarily (and probably paying for the privilege.


It's legal only if the child sleeps there as his primary residence.


How do you define primary? I have a friend who in my mind a built a child custody schedule with the best internet of their child in mind. The kid is with her an equal amount of time as with the father. She lives in DC. Father in Takoma, MD. By design, their homes are within walking distance, roughly a mile. She tried the immersion school lottery for two years with no luck. After striking out at the DCPCS lottery, father enrolled the kid in Takoma PArk elementary using his address. By right, the kid could have attended either DC or MOCO public schools. Oh and they take turns every other year as to who will claim the kid on the tax return.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/07/maryland-parent-uses-dc-apartment-to-prove-residency-so-kids-attend-district-schools/ The latest installment.


Why would she agree to speak with the reporters and be so candid/flippant?


Because she thinks what she is doing is common, clever, respectable, and 'legitimate.'


Exactly. I have coworkers who talk freely about fraudulently attending DC schools, receiving WIC/Food Stamps, etc. There is no stigma whatsoever about fraud.


Where do you work and what is your profession where people speak so boldly about their personal lives- multiple people especially.


I work in SE DC in a social services profession.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Don't forget that the census is an *estimate* with a sizeable margin of error. DCPS enrollment stats are an actual count. Apples, oranges. Next!


Are you kidding? So you really think there is no residency cheating? Give me a break. If our council actually did anything, I would love it so school enrollment is tied to a tax return. No more fake pay stubs, leases, etc. I would also eliminate the schools as responsible for registering students.
Anonymous
What if they let bounty hunters find residency cheaters? If DC saves 30k, maybe they can pass along 10k to the bounty hunter. I think it's a great idea!
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:What if they let bounty hunters find residency cheaters? If DC saves 30k, maybe they can pass along 10k to the bounty hunter. I think it's a great idea!


I bet I would make 100k EASY.
Anonymous
Does DC get federal subsidies for enrollment? If so, maybe that's a driver.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Don't forget that the census is an *estimate* with a sizeable margin of error. DCPS enrollment stats are an actual count. Apples, oranges. Next!


Are you kidding? So you really think there is no residency cheating? Give me a break. If our council actually did anything, I would love it so school enrollment is tied to a tax return. No more fake pay stubs, leases, etc. I would also eliminate the schools as responsible for registering students.


Of course there are incidents of cheating. But there is no evidence of significant cheating and plenty of evidence of people with other agendas pushing this story.
Anonymous
What "evidence" of "other agendas" do you think you see?

Sounds like you're just trying to shoot the messenger.
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