Reply to School residency cheaters investigated

Forum Index » DC Public and Public Charter Schools

Reply to "School residency cheaters investigated"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The census estimated there were 38,522 children aged 5-10 in DC in 2015. DCPS and charters reported 38,421 children enrolled in grades K-4 in 2015/16. In 2010, the American Community Survey estimated there were 4,784 DC children enrolled in private K-4. Doesn't capture home schooling. Even with margins of error and declines in private school enrollment since 2010, seems like DC has a couple thousand more kids enrolled in school than are in the census for DC.[/quote]

Oooh! I like your research! [/quote]

Good thinking to look in these numbers!  Question:  Seems like ages 5-10 is 6 years worth of children, but K-4 is only 5 grades.  Is there a mismatch?[/quote]

Citing some links would be useful. According to this for 2014 kids from 5-11 in D.C. = 41,551
http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/101-child-population-by-age-group#detailed/2/10/false/869/62,63,64,6,4693/419,420

and for enrollment for 2014/2015 for k-6 = 24,353 
http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment

and for k-4 for 2015/16 = 20,161

Somebody correct my math, maybe i am just doing this too quickly.
[/quote]

Here is what i used:

charter enrollment: http://www.dcpcsb.org/data/student-enrollment
DCPS enrollment: http://dcps.dc.gov/page/dcps-glance-enrollment
census: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2015/PEPSYASEX?slice=GEO~0400000US11

can't find the ACS with private school right now. I couldn't find by year, just by group, which is why it cut off at 4th not 5th.[/quote]

I can't believe I spent part of a Friday night looking for this. But here is a 2014 ACS table on private school enrollment: http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/14_1YR/C14002/0400000US11

Also -- I don't know if the census undercounts kids, and, yes, the 2015 number is not a direct census, but the methodology they use to get to the 2015 numbers seems OK. Does the census undercount kids by ~10%? That's how many extra kids my kludgy math comes up with for DCPS + charter + private compared to the census for the elementary school years. Not proof that there are extra kids in DC public schools but food for thought. [/quote]

the last census was in 2010 and yes it undercounts siginicantly. these are numbers being picked out of the air. [/quote]

"This report includes a high-level review of the issue of the undercount of children age 0-4 in censuses and
surveys. "
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/working-papers/2014/demo/2014-undercount-children.pdf[/quote]

"Persistent undercount of young children, ages 0 to 4, in the decennial census"
"4.6% net undercount in 2010, nearly 1 million young children"

"Children under the age of 5 were especially likely to be missed in the 2010 Census, with a net undercount of 4.6 percent"
https://www2.census.gov/census_2020/pmr_materials/2016-04-12/PrePMR%20The%20Undercount%20of%20Young%20Children.pdf

It appears that for age groups from 5 to 9 and 10 to 17 there is not a significant under count. Probably because school age children have to intersect with the government for purposes of public school and immunizations.[/quote]

The 5 to 10 age group gets under counted too
http://www.nonprofitvote.org/children-and-the-census/

"In the 2000 Census, the net undercount of children under 10 years old was 1 million; children under 5 account for over three quarters of this. The report notes a more pronounced discrepancy in rates of undercounted minority children. In 2000, black males under age 5 were missed at a rate of 5.3 percent, compared to 3.3 percent for non-black males in this age group. Among females, blacks under age 5 were missed at a rate of 5.4 percent, compared to 3.8 percent for non-blacks in this age group.
There are several factors that explain the high undercount of young children: Young children are more likely to live in households with 7+ occupants, which make it difficult to complete the census form with spaces for only six names; children are also more likely to live in places characterized as hard to count, including rental units, mobile homes, and complex households with adults other than parents. Looking ahead to the 2010 census, prospects for an accurate count of children do not look promising, as there has been an increase in the proportion of young children from minority populations from previous years, there are more children living with undocumented residents than in previous years, and an estimated two million children will be affected by the housing crisis which will add to the complexity of getting an accurate count."[/quote]

That is still saying that 750,000 children that are under counted are under the age of 5 and that nationwide 250,000 are under counted from aged 5-10. Still worth considering the complex issues of D.C. with housing and poverty.  Take the highest missed rate of 5.4% for a population under 5. Would it be safe to assume that the missed rate for children ages 5 to 10 would be at least half? Like a missed rate of 2.5%.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics