2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

For anything regarding Nevada, Jon Ralston is the guy you’ll want to listen to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Trump will be crushed in the popular vote. God willing, he will lose the electoral college as well or we are headed backwards again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump will be crushed in the popular vote. God willing, he will lose the electoral college as well or we are headed backwards again.

So tired of minority rule. The vast majority of people want Roe v Wade. The vast majority of people want common sense gun laws.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump will be crushed in the popular vote. God willing, he will lose the electoral college as well or we are headed backwards again.

So tired of minority rule. The vast majority of people want Roe v Wade. The vast majority of people want common sense gun laws.

This. There was something in the economist that a Democrat needs to have over 55% of the popular vote to win the electoral college.

Amending the constitution is a non-starter, but it’s not clear to me why more states don’t apportion their electoral college votes in line with that state’s popular vote tally. I think Colorado already does this?

[Anonymous]

‼️ If you want to post more than 3 sentences of thought and analysis please do so in another thread.‼️

💕🇺🇸

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump will be crushed in the popular vote. God willing, he will lose the electoral college as well or we are headed backwards again.

So tired of minority rule. The vast majority of people want Roe v Wade. The vast majority of people want common sense gun laws.

This. There was something in the economist that a Democrat needs to have over 55% of the popular vote to win the electoral college.

Amending the constitution is a non-starter, but it’s not clear to me why more states don’t apportion their electoral college votes in line with that state’s popular vote tally. I think Colorado already does this?

This has been the case since at least the Bill Clinton elections. We have a structural imbalance in the composition of the electoral college, the capping of House members at 435 and the rural/urban divide as reflected in the Senate. Unless the Dems can figure out how to message to rural voters more effectively in terms of things like USDA policies, and trade, the imbalance will continue.

[Anonymous]

this bodes well for Harris

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:this bodes well for Harris

She’s working hard and she actually cares about Americans. I hope that resonates with Pennsylvania voters and that they will turn out for her.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Men 18-29 deleting spam text polls. Numbers will be higher.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][twitter]https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1835674434033590289?t=o52JRn0O5uiQDVMaB383Eg&s=19[/twitter][/quote]

Trump will be crushed in the popular vote. God willing, he will lose the electoral college as well or we are headed backwards again.[/quote]

So tired of minority rule. The vast majority of people want Roe v Wade. The vast majority of people want common sense gun laws. [/quote]

This. There was something in the economist that a Democrat needs to have over 55% of the popular vote to win the electoral college.

Amending the constitution is a non-starter, but it’s not clear to me why more states don’t apportion their electoral college votes in line with that state’s popular vote tally. I think Colorado already does this?[/quote]

No, Economist wrote that Harris needs a 5pt polling margin to *guarantee* a victory, not 55% (10pt margin) to win.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/09/11/the-systemic-bias-kamala-harris-must-overcome-in-order-to-win

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump will be crushed in the popular vote. God willing, he will lose the electoral college as well or we are headed backwards again.

So tired of minority rule. The vast majority of people want Roe v Wade. The vast majority of people want common sense gun laws.

This. There was something in the economist that a Democrat needs to have over 55% of the popular vote to win the electoral college.

Amending the constitution is a non-starter, but it’s not clear to me why more states don’t apportion their electoral college votes in line with that state’s popular vote tally. I think Colorado already does this?

No, Economist wrote that Harris needs a 5pt polling margin to *guarantee* a victory, not 55% (10pt margin) to win.

https://www.economist.com...der-to-win

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Men 18-29 deleting spam text polls. Numbers will be higher.

And women married to conservative men who tell their husbands they are voting for Trump, and will answer polls that they are voting for Trump, but will actually vote for Harris. The women's vote will be much higher for Harris than for Trump than polls show.

Women are roughly 55% of those likely to vote vs 45% of men.

There are also record new voter registrations of young 18-30 year old voters who will be voting first time this election. And 18-30 trend about 65-80% Democratic. Harris and Walz are visiting college towns and getting young voters hyped and getting many of them to register to vote.

There are likely more hidden or uncounted Harris voters than hidden Trump voters.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][twitter]https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1835674434033590289?t=o52JRn0O5uiQDVMaB383Eg&s=19[/twitter][/quote]

Trump will be crushed in the popular vote. God willing, he will lose the electoral college as well or we are headed backwards again.[/quote]

So tired of minority rule. The vast majority of people want Roe v Wade. The vast majority of people want common sense gun laws. [/quote]

This. There was something in the economist that a Democrat needs to have over 55% of the popular vote to win the electoral college.

Amending the constitution is a non-starter, but it’s not clear to me why more states don’t apportion their electoral college votes in line with that state’s popular vote tally. I think Colorado already does this?[/quote]

No, Economist wrote that Harris needs a 5pt polling margin to *guarantee* a victory, not 55% (10pt margin) to win.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/09/11/the-systemic-bias-kamala-harris-must-overcome-in-order-to-win[/quote]
+1 Trump has never gotten close to 50 - I think he topped out at 46 both times - so she will need to be five points ahead of him to be comfortably assured of winning the electoral college. In 2008 Obama didn’t even get 53% but McCain got less than 46% and it was an electoral blowout. As much as I love her she’s not getting 55%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Men 18-29 deleting spam text polls. Numbers will be higher.

And women married to conservative men who tell their husbands they are voting for Trump, and will answer polls that they are voting for Trump, but will actually vote for Harris. The women's vote will be much higher for Harris than for Trump than polls show.

Women are roughly 55% of those likely to vote vs 45% of men.

There are also record new voter registrations of young 18-30 year old voters who will be voting first time this election. And 18-30 trend about 65-80% Democratic. Harris and Walz are visiting college towns and getting young voters hyped and getting many of them to register to vote.

There are likely more hidden or uncounted Harris voters than hidden Trump voters.

This is what we told ourselves before Hillary lost. Truth is that there are many women who actually support Trump.