2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In 2020, Dem pollsters not only massively underestimated Trump’s support, they also claimed that Dem Senate candidates were winning or competitive in Senate races in states like Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina where Democrat candidates massively lost. Every one of their polls claimed Collins was losing in Maine, and she won easily.

I still remember that red wave in 2022.

Actually, the polls were very accurate in 2022. There’s just very few competitive House seats due to gerrymandering by both parties during redistricting.

Some poll or polls were not very accurate because RCP thought the Senate results were going to be 53 R - 47 D.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jill Stein received 50k votes in Michigan in 2016. Two scoops beat Hillary by maybe 11k votes. Jill Stein is directly appealing to the Arab block in MI at this time. That said, the Black vote is really energized and they will come out in droves in the City of Detroit, along with other smaller enclaves in Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb Counties (as well as further north in Flint. The Black vote will be what pushes Kamala over the top in MI - no doubt about it. The angry Arab segment just doesn’t have the numbers nor the political discipline found in the Black communities in SE MI.

What is the demographic breakdown In Michigan?

Race and ethnicity (White alone 61.6%; Black alone 12.4%; Hispanic 18.7%; Asian alone 6%; American Indian and Alaska Native alone 1.1%

2020 Census

The Middle Eastern Arab/Palestinian would identify as white, right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jill Stein received 50k votes in Michigan in 2016. Two scoops beat Hillary by maybe 11k votes. Jill Stein is directly appealing to the Arab block in MI at this time. That said, the Black vote is really energized and they will come out in droves in the City of Detroit, along with other smaller enclaves in Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb Counties (as well as further north in Flint. The Black vote will be what pushes Kamala over the top in MI - no doubt about it. The angry Arab segment just doesn’t have the numbers nor the political discipline found in the Black communities in SE MI.

What is the demographic breakdown In Michigan?

Race and ethnicity (White alone 61.6%; Black alone 12.4%; Hispanic 18.7%; Asian alone 6%; American Indian and Alaska Native alone 1.1%

2020 Census

The Middle Eastern Arab/Palestinian would identify as white, right?

The federal government/US. Census Bureau identifies them as white. Even if they don’t self-identify as white. It’s messed up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

A lot of the “mainstream” pollsters are Dem pollsters. For example, Morning Consult, ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, all pollsters that consistently wildly overstate the margin for Democrat candidates and even falsely release polls claiming Democrats are winning in races they are actually losing.

What does the word "conssitentiy" mean to you?

[Anonymous]

famously left wing pollster trafalagar has harris up in nevada

i'd be scared if i were a ketchup bottle at mal today

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:famously left wing pollster trafalagar has harris up in nevada

i'd be scared if i were a ketchup bottle at mal today

It's good to see but I get nervous whenever I see that many undecideds. Especially after what happened in 2016.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jill Stein received 50k votes in Michigan in 2016. Two scoops beat Hillary by maybe 11k votes. Jill Stein is directly appealing to the Arab block in MI at this time. That said, the Black vote is really energized and they will come out in droves in the City of Detroit, along with other smaller enclaves in Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb Counties (as well as further north in Flint. The Black vote will be what pushes Kamala over the top in MI - no doubt about it. The angry Arab segment just doesn’t have the numbers nor the political discipline found in the Black communities in SE MI.

What is the demographic breakdown In Michigan?

Race and ethnicity (White alone 61.6%; Black alone 12.4%; Hispanic 18.7%; Asian alone 6%; American Indian and Alaska Native alone 1.1%

2020 Census

The Middle Eastern Arab/Palestinian would identify as white, right?

The federal government/US. Census Bureau identifies them as white. Even if they don’t self-identify as white. It’s messed up.

How are Jews categorizes?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

He will get even higher percentage of veterans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

He will get even higher percentage of veterans.

Because he cuts VA funding, calls service member suckers and losers and begrimes hallowed grounds at Arlington?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jill Stein received 50k votes in Michigan in 2016. Two scoops beat Hillary by maybe 11k votes. Jill Stein is directly appealing to the Arab block in MI at this time. That said, the Black vote is really energized and they will come out in droves in the City of Detroit, along with other smaller enclaves in Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb Counties (as well as further north in Flint. The Black vote will be what pushes Kamala over the top in MI - no doubt about it. The angry Arab segment just doesn’t have the numbers nor the political discipline found in the Black communities in SE MI.

What is the demographic breakdown In Michigan?

Race and ethnicity (White alone 61.6%; Black alone 12.4%; Hispanic 18.7%; Asian alone 6%; American Indian and Alaska Native alone 1.1%

2020 Census

The Middle Eastern Arab/Palestinian would identify as white, right?

I thought changed in last census and there is a breakout for MENA, but maybe I’m mistaken.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

A lot of the “mainstream” pollsters are Dem pollsters. For example, Morning Consult, ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, all pollsters that consistently wildly overstate the margin for Democrat candidates and even falsely release polls claiming Democrats are winning in races they are actually losing.

Your tell is the use of “Democrat” candidates. It’s always the tell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

He will get even higher percentage of veterans.

Because he cuts VA funding, calls service member suckers and losers and begrimes hallowed grounds at Arlington?

They’re not immune to right wing brainwashing just because they served. People can’t be reasoned out of a position into which they did not reason themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:famously left wing pollster trafalagar has harris up in nevada

i'd be scared if i were a ketchup bottle at mal today

It's good to see but I get nervous whenever I see that many undecideds. Especially after what happened in 2016.

As you should be! No one should take it for granted. I would keep in mind, though, that this is yet another right wing poll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Trump is not getting 63% of veterans. Nope. Not gonna happen.

He will get even higher percentage of veterans.

Because he cuts VA funding, calls service member suckers and losers and begrimes hallowed grounds at Arlington?

Keep telling yourself that, keyboard warrior.

I'm a dem, Harris all the way and agree with PP that says he'll get the Veteran vote.... despite all the horrific things he says/does.

People (including women) often vote against their own interests and rationalize it based on a single issue like abortion, immigration, etc thinking it's for "the good of the country" completely ignoring how absolutely horrible Trump is for democracy and the country. To put in mildly.