2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-after-debate-harris-surges-to-5-point-lead-over-trump-among-registered-voters-in-head-to-head-matchup-122213811.html

"Finally, half of Americans (50%) now say Trump is "too old" for another term as president, up from 47% in August. That number has never been higher."

Well, he's older than he's ever been.

And now, he's older still.

I got your TMBG reference there!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

Biden Opens Gaping 17-Point Lead on Trump in Wisconsin, Poll Finds

A new poll has the former vice president over Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin, where the coronavirus is surging.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-10-28/biden-opens-gaping-17-point-lead-on-trump-in-wisconsin-poll-finds


In reality, Biden won it by .6%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/wisconsin


Wake the hell up.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

A lot of the “mainstream” pollsters are Dem pollsters. For example, Morning Consult, ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, all pollsters that consistently wildly overstate the margin for Democrat candidates and even falsely release polls claiming Democrats are winning in races they are actually losing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

Are there Democrats and LW candidates who make their whole brand on grievances and claiming that every election was stolen and illegitimate if they didn’t win? No? Well there’s your answer.

[Anonymous]

In 2020, Dem pollsters not only massively underestimated Trump’s support, they also claimed that Dem Senate candidates were winning or competitive in Senate races in states like Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina where Democrat candidates massively lost. Every one of their polls claimed Collins was losing in Maine, and she won easily.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In 2020, Dem pollsters not only massively underestimated Trump’s support, they also claimed that Dem Senate candidates were winning or competitive in Senate races in states like Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina where Democrat candidates massively lost. Every one of their polls claimed Collins was losing in Maine, and she won easily.

I still remember that red wave in 2022.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In 2020, Dem pollsters not only massively underestimated Trump’s support, they also claimed that Dem Senate candidates were winning or competitive in Senate races in states like Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina where Democrat candidates massively lost. Every one of their polls claimed Collins was losing in Maine, and she won easily.

I still remember that red wave in 2022.

Actually, the polls were very accurate in 2022. There’s just very few competitive House seats due to gerrymandering by both parties during redistricting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

Biden Opens Gaping 17-Point Lead on Trump in Wisconsin, Poll Finds

A new poll has the former vice president over Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin, where the coronavirus is surging.

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-10-28/biden-opens-gaping-17-point-lead-on-trump-in-wisconsin-poll-finds


In reality, Biden won it by .6%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/wisconsin


Wake the hell up.

Wake the hell up about a four year old, outlier poll in a state where I don’t live?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.

And what are the left wing pollsters doing?

there isn't really a left wing counterpart to the right wing pollsters. there are some dem leaning pollsters but they aren't partisan in the same way.

A lot of the “mainstream” pollsters are Dem pollsters. For example, Morning Consult, ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, all pollsters that consistently wildly overstate the margin for Democrat candidates and even falsely release polls claiming Democrats are winning in races they are actually losing.

Could you share some examples of these falsely released polls? I don't mean HRC in 2016 - something since then, if you could.

[Anonymous]

Why are polls all over the map? Aren’t they all sampling the same electorate?