2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-debate-winner-maintaining-slight-lead-trump-poll/story?id=113673862

ABC/Ipsos poll shows polling unchanged since the debate. It still has her leading 51-47% among registered voters. It think the poll is flawed, because it shows her running even with Trump with male voters.

Does the poll provide numbers for how many respondents are D, R, I?

[Anonymous]

If the polling out of Iowa and Arkansas are accurate, then the impact on the swing states will be devasating for Trump AND the GOP. No one things Harris would win either state, but a 5 poit slide to the left that they are showing would be insurmountable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-debate-winner-maintaining-slight-lead-trump-poll/story?id=113673862

ABC/Ipsos poll shows polling unchanged since the debate. It still has her leading 51-47% among registered voters. It think the poll is flawed, because it shows her running even with Trump with male voters.

How useful are polls of registered voters at this point? I'd have thought that by now all the pollsters would have switched over to likely voters instead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If the polling out of Iowa and Arkansas are accurate, then the impact on the swing states will be devasating for Trump AND the GOP. No one things Harris would win either state, but a 5 poit slide to the left that they are showing would be insurmountable.

The Iowa poll didn’t show movement towards the left. It showed Harris with less support than Biden got in Iowa in 2020. What it showed was 6% support for RFK.

Anyway, this pollster had Biden and Harris tied 47%-47% in her September 2020 election poll. It wasn’t until a few days before the election that she correctly identified that Trump had a big lead in the state. The polls in Iowa were terrible overall last time, only hoping Trump with a 1-2% lead in Iowa, when he won by over 8%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Atlas is A+ rated poll.

In this poll, Trump's lead comes from ages 30-45 being substantially more pro-Trump than both 18-29 and 46-64.
Seems a bit sus.

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/ad0b0406-5255-4f29-8469-77371b5d6bef.pdf

30-45 leans very conservative - this came out in the NYTimes Siena poll as well.

Another story

Poll is trash. It has Harris tied with Trump among male voters, which no other polls show.

Not all male votes are white. I’d like to see the cross tabs on this.

[Anonymous]

We're really doing 2016 all over again where people declare that Trump favoring polls and averages are fake.

Are you coming to my election night party to celebrate Hillary Harris's won before the polls close?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jill Stein received 50k votes in Michigan in 2016. Two scoops beat Hillary by maybe 11k votes. Jill Stein is directly appealing to the Arab block in MI at this time. That said, the Black vote is really energized and they will come out in droves in the City of Detroit, along with other smaller enclaves in Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb Counties (as well as further north in Flint. The Black vote will be what pushes Kamala over the top in MI - no doubt about it. The angry Arab segment just doesn’t have the numbers nor the political discipline found in the Black communities in SE MI.

What is the demographic breakdown In Michigan?

Middle Eastern population is still counted as White. I am guessing that will be changing very soon, but yea - for now, they are Wonderbread. According to the Nate Silvers of the world.

OK adjust your estimates to account for the huge factor that 0.3M of the 7million "white" people in Michigan are actually Middle Eastern.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-after-debate-harris-surges-to-5-point-lead-over-trump-among-registered-voters-in-head-to-head-matchup-122213811.html

"Finally, half of Americans (50%) now say Trump is "too old" for another term as president, up from 47% in August. That number has never been higher."

Well, he's older than he's ever been.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-newsyougov-poll-after-debate-harris-surges-to-5-point-lead-over-trump-among-registered-voters-in-head-to-head-matchup-122213811.html

"Finally, half of Americans (50%) now say Trump is "too old" for another term as president, up from 47% in August. That number has never been higher."

Well, he's older than he's ever been.

And now, he's older still.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where is this sudden jump coming from? Just last week it was a dead heat.

The story has to change every week to keep it exciting. Unless you are following a comprehensive poll average like 538 or Silver or JHK, you are just getting biased selected data points to create someone's preferred narrative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We're really doing 2016 all over again where people declare that Trump favoring polls and averages are fake.

Are you coming to my election night party to celebrate Hillary Harris's won before the polls close?

Why do you all talk like 2016 is the only election that ever happened? It’s really weird.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Worrisome article about phony polls. They will help Trump when he tries with the big lie again after election.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/political-strategist-heres-how-gops-phony-polls-will-help-trump-with-the-big-lie.html?outputType=amp

Yes and Nate Silver seems to be perpetuating this. I am beginning to think he is no longer a serious pollster.

The very first thing Silver does with a poll is to compare the pollster to past election results and adjust for their bias.

Also, Silver is NOT A POLLSTER.

I'm not sure many of the polls are even polls. I'll bet many of them are numbers made up in a back office and published as polls.

You can never see what's in the black box. So you don't really know what is going on if anything. Some are legit. Some aren't and are just ops to attempt to sway the public, and it's going on on both sides.

The internal polls to the campaigns are legit. Outside of that, you can't be sure.

The right wing pollsters do polls that show Trump (this election cycle)/R’s running for senate or gov (in 2022) up by several points in order to give Trump ammunition to say that all the polls showed him winning and then he didn’t win so it must be a fake election.