US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy
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Anonymous
We knew this was coming and we knew how to contain it too, but we didn't prepare. Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and possibly Germany have so far managed to contain it. This doesn't excuse China, but that doesn't mean we are not responsible for our own mistakes. |
Anonymous
Most European countries screwed up too, but the chart is showing we are doing worse than any country in the world. Two weeks ago, we wondered what was wrong with Italy. Two weeks from now, the world will wonder what is wrong with us. |
Anonymous
Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy. |
Anonymous
The US has far more immigration than any European country because of business and leisure. The US is the #1 destination for Chinese tourists outside of the immediate vicinity of Asia. There is far more economic activity and travel related to business coming into the US than every other country on Earth besides maybe China. Stop trying to compare the US to lowly economic countries that economies smaller than even California. |
Anonymous
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Pence stood on the WH podium and lied to all of us.
He went on Sat/Sunday talk shows two weeks ago to say 4 MILLION test would be “shipped” by 3/13/2020. There are no tests. |
Anonymous
Oh please, tell me wise democrat, how EXACTLY would you prepare to control this disease when some lady travels to China, gets the disease, takes a fever reducer, lies about contracting the disease, and spreads it to dozens of people at a business conference. https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/biogen-parts-way-employee-who-hid-coronavirus-symptoms-and-lied-her-way-back-to-china The US gets far more travel to it than all of those countries mentioned because of business. It's not even comparable. |
Anonymous
Probably, They do stick out numerically. However, much has been made of the age of their population. I just looked up the percentages aged 60+. They are 38%, and we are 32. That means for every old person here, there are 1.18 over there (adjusting for total population size). That would not explain an 8% death rate. Their rate of smoking is 22.8% vs. 15.1%, which is a big deal. On the other hand, our obesity rate is a staggering 38%, while theirs is only 9%. If we do better than them, it's because we had an extra month to prepare and to learn from their pain. Or maybe we are more suburban/rural, so it will be easier to beat back the virus. But we don't come into this in a significantly healthier state than them. And our doctors don''t have some magic up their sleeve when it comes to pneumonia. |
Anonymous
Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed. One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean. Both suggest a death rate around 1%. We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected. About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected. 20% of the US population is around 65 million. One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths. This is what has everybody freaking out. If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu. Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs. Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives. This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out. If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out. |
Anonymous
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The best set of data is from China as long as you assume they aren't lying:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/covid-19-recovery-rates-intl/index.html
There are almost 1-2 million deaths and over 10 million cases due to tuberculosis per year. You think COVID is scary? Try multi-drug resistant TB. Do we all panic over MDR TB? No. Does the economy stop because of TB? No. Is TB transmissible by air/droplets? Yes. So much stupid panicking over a coronavirus that by in large produces mild symptoms in the vast, vast majority of cases. The media goes into a frenzy over the tailend of a bell curve. Jeez, who ever knew there was a continuum of severity for a disease? Oh wait, that's right, that's like every disease....a fraction of people will always have more severe responses than others. That's not a good reason to paralyze society. Mark my words. We will all look back at this and shake our head in disbelief at the over panic. The remedy, which includes injecting trillions upon trillions of dollars in debt into the economy, will be far more painful for millions of future generations of Americans than the actual disease itself. The US already has over a 100% debt-to-gdp ratio, and now we'll be adding trillions more because of an overreaction to a bug that causes mild symptoms in the vast majority of cases. Ever see a country that defaults on its debt or that has to enact severe austerity measures because it has too much debt? That will end up causing much more human suffering than this bug. Good lord, its as if humans have never co-existed with viruses throughout our course of evolution. Oh wait, that's right, we have a highly advanced immune system to deal with, which is why the vast majority of COVID cases will result in a mild syndrome. Sure, protect the most vulnerable and help with care with those who are in the far tail end of the bellcurve who end up needed intense care. But that's not a good reason to paralyze the entire world economy for a disease that produces mild symptoms in most cases. No one pees their pants about MDR tuberculosis, which is far nastier. |
Anonymous
Have a tiered plan. Testing, testing, testing. Quarantine every positive case and all their close contacts. Get as many supplies stocked as possible. Close down schools and business sooner rather than later. You can't blame it all on travelers and liars. You won't catch every case. but that's not the goal. The goal is to slow it down as much as possible. I don't know why you think the US gets more travelers from China than South Korea, Hong Kong or Japan, but whatever keeps your brain from exploding is fine with me. My prediction is that when this is all done, we will be seen to have the worst response in the developed world. The most sick people, the most preventable deaths, the highest absolute number of deaths. You don't have to believe me now. All of us have trouble believing the greatest country on earth could be so bad at this. But we are in for a rude awakening. The buzzer will go off sometime next week, and you'll be wide awake 2 months from now. And please, no more "wise Democrat" sarcasm. It's not a good look. |
Anonymous
You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research. |
Anonymous
515 people died from tuberculosis in the US last year. We will exceed that next week with coronavirus. Obligatory rant over why we shouldn't panic over coronavirus and why the US will never impose on itself the cruel austerity measures we imposed on so many others. |
Anonymous
515 people died from tuberculosis in the US last year. We will exceed that next week with coronavirus. Obligatory rant over why we shouldn't panic over coronavirus and why the US will never impose on itself the cruel austerity measures we imposed on so many others. |
Anonymous
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There is also no equivalence between the contagion of TB and COVID-19.
“ Although tuberculosis is contagious, it's not easy to catch. You're much more likely to get tuberculosis from someone you live with or work with than from a stranger. ” |
Anonymous
I can always be wrong, but I provided my research and analysis to you, and all you did was say, "you are wrong, do more research." Umm, no. You do your own research and analysis. Well see who is right in a few months. But I'm pretty sure I'm right because it's just math now. Hell, I'll tell you how many dead people we'll have in two weeks. About 6,000. Don't believe me now. But if I'm right, will you believe you might, just might, be wrong. |