Reply to US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

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Reply to "US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.[/quote]
We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.[/quote]

Based on?[/quote]
Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two.  We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today.  Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.  [/quote]

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.[/quote]
Well, we have several datasets that include testing all or almost all of those who were exposed.  One is from the Diamond Princess and one is from South Korean.  Both suggest a death rate around 1%.  We can also use the Diamond Princess to estimate a maximum number likely to be infected.  About 20% of the people on the Diamond Princess were infected.  20% of the US population is around 65 million.  One per cent of that is 650,000 deaths.  This is what has everybody freaking out.  If you play around with my numbers to account for various uncertainties, you still get a large number of deaths, and worst epidemic since the Spanish Flu.  Also, about 20% of people have a severe case than penetrates into the lungs.  Most of those people survive, but a significant number will develop scarred lungs, which will impair their health for the rest of their lives.  This isn't talked about so much, but it also is causing experts to freak out.

If your brain has trouble absorbing this, just understand that epidemiologist make these estimates for a living and most of them are freaking out.[/quote]

You are wrong. In three months this will look like one of the biggest hype jobs ever. Do more research.[/quote]

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