Reply to US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.[/quote]
We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.[/quote]

Based on?[/quote]
Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two.  We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate.

On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today.  Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today.  [/quote]

Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.[/quote]

Probably,  They do stick out numerically.  However, much has been made of the age of their population.  I just looked up the percentages aged 60+.  They are 38%, and we are 32.  That means for every old person here, there are 1.18 over there (adjusting for total population size).  That would not explain an 8% death rate.  Their rate of smoking is 22.8% vs. 15.1%, which is a big deal.  On the other hand, our obesity rate is a staggering 38%, while theirs is only 9%.

If we do better than them, it's because we had an extra month to prepare and to learn from their pain.  Or maybe we are more suburban/rural, so it will be easier to beat back the virus.  But we don't come into this in a significantly healthier state than them.  And our doctors don''t have some magic up their sleeve when it comes to pneumonia.[/quote]

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