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Reply to "US coronavirus cases top 10,000 and on the same or worse curve than Italy"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]For many reasons, Italy is not a good comp.[/quote] We won't have as high a percentage of deaths, but there is a good chance we will have the highest percentage of sick people in the world and that our hospitals will be overwhelmed.[/quote] Based on?[/quote] Extrapolating out the exponential curve out a week or two. We are where Italy was a week ago and have a higher growth rate. On Tuesday, based on a 30% growth rate, I predicted we would have 10,000 cases by today. Well we have more like a 45% growth rate which gave us 20,000 cases today. [/quote] Thanks. I don’t even think number of cases is really a useful metric at this juncture. The numbers are all over the place because people have simply stopped testing or are only testing those with the worst symptoms. None of these are apples to apples comparisons. On the whole, I say we fare better than Italy.[/quote]
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