Can you tell if any couple in your social group will divorce?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People who got married too young in their 20's or because of a deadline like turning 30are the most predictable for divorce.

Funny - the couples I know who got married straight out of undergrad are still married.

I was the first to get married (after first year of law school). My friends got married shortly after grad school. Everyone has their first baby around 28-30.

All of us are still happily married.

My two cents: when an educated guy wants to commit and have babies, he craves monogamy and isn't likely to stray.

This is not true.

also not all divorces are because the man "strays." The two divorces I know about are due to one wife having an affair, and the other getting restless of their lifestyle and wanting to move from their ultra-rural area. My relationship sucks because DH is a jerk not because he is having an affair.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
We have a very small circle of good friends, and I know that none will. We are 40s to 50s and have each gone through very difficult challenges, so the marriages are strong, otherwise they would have cracked a long time ago.

SO not true. My parents have been best friends with 2 couples for nearly 50 years. 4 years ago, one of them split after 43 years of marriage. The husband started cheating. As a nearly 70 year old man.

[Anonymous]

I predict one couple will divorce. She was trying to out him as a gay man two winter breaks before she hooked up with him. He doesn't know about it. That's a doomed marriage.

[Anonymous]

I think if you are close enough to people you can tell. I remember my friend being super nasty to her husband in front of me a few years ago. I wouldn't be surprised if they divorce unfortunately.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People who got married too young in their 20's or because of a deadline like turning 30are the most predictable for divorce.

Funny - the couples I know who got married straight out of undergrad are still married.

I was the first to get married (after first year of law school). My friends got married shortly after grad school. Everyone has their first baby around 28-30.

All of us are still happily married.

My two cents: when an educated guy wants to commit and have babies, he craves monogamy and isn't likely to stray.

This is not true.

I would wholeheartedly disagree with this also. People get married then because that is what they and their families expect on their life trajectory.

[Anonymous]

I’m not sure you can call it. You may be able to identify a bad marriage or unhappy people, but it’s hard to determine someone’s willingness to divorce. I’m not that crazy about my husband these days but I’m unwilling to divorce. I have a great life, children and we’ve built quite a life together. Getting divorced wouldn’t make me happier and I’d just be trading one problem for another.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, all you people who claim you can predict divorce, what do you see (and when) that you consider a tell?

NP here, but I'll bite. I'm a very observant introvert who listens and observes way more than I speak. When you spend time with a couple, you pick up on little (and often very, very subtle) red flagish things over time. I find myself taking those things and kinda file them away in the mental vault, and it helps me understand the way things are likely to play out overtime. These signs might seem like nothing to someone who is, frankly, less observant, but the sum of them can often convey a certain attitude or issues within the relationship.

Some quick examples:

- At my SILs wedding, I noticed that the groom was VERY complimentary of the bridesmaids' appearances. This might seem like no big deal, but I thought it was odd that he was so comfortable being so complimentary of other women when he's moments away from marrying the love of his life. Something just seemed mildly off about the interactions in a way I can't really describe, and I would not be surprised if he cheats down the road.

- A couple of weeks before I attended another wedding, I was talking to the bride who was very excitedly going over logistics and cheerfully said something like "I'm very ready to get married!" Not, "I'm very ready to marry Larlo". Sounds like a small difference, but I think it is telling about her attitude.

Then there are generally things that you pick up on over time.

- I also notice couples that seem lovely, but have basically had a very low-stress courtship. They're often ingrained in a low stress dynamic, and I'll pay close attention to how things between them start to play out between them once the stress gets cranked up a bit (usually after the arrival of a baby or two). Personality differences that seem complementary while dating, can really cause issues in times of stress.

- Couples that marry after years of dating and living together often seem to be together due to inertia. Not always, but very often, yes.

- Couples where one spouse is ADHD and the other is able to work around their ADHD spouse. The wheels come off when these people have kids, even if they don't get divorced.

- Couples where one or both people drink too much socially. I think that signals poor coping mechanisms and/or unhappiness. It also points so something that can get much worse when the going gets tough, so to speak.

- General lack of an emotionally generous attitude from one spouse to another, or between each other.

- General lack of a kind attitude from one spouse to another, or between each other. The worst are the people who dig in when they have a disagreement, instead of genuinely trying to understand each others perspective. People who do the whole tit for tat thing are in for a rough road.

- EXTREMELY extroverted couples who host everything. People are usually the most surprised by these divorces. However, if you were paying attention all along, you would have seen that much of their relationship is about other people and structured activities. They often put on a good front. These are the people who are all smiles on Facebook, running off to the pumpkin patch and pressing their own apple cider on the first nice day of fall. I think, very often, they're excessively active socially and on the weekends because they don't really have enough between them to enjoy each other...always has to be a bunch of other people around or some structured activity.

So yeah, any one of these things alone doesn't add up to a prediction of divorce, but they do flag attitudes and things that I'll take a closer look at over the years. These things usually point to where to look for the signs, and from there I'll observe more and make a determination about a couples likeliness to call it quits or not. While I haven't been surprised by a divorce yet, I have found that it is hard to know WHEN exactly a relationship will blow up. I've found that to be a more imperfect science.

I bolded the ones that apply to my first marriage. If I am completely honest, he should never have asked me to marry him and I should never have agreed, but at the time, it felt like a fun adventure that we were going on together. Our entire relationship was basically project-based: we worked on the same stuff and related to each other on that level, then there was the "planning a wedding" project and the "moving across the country" project the "remodel a house" project and the "having a baby" project. After the baby was born, he moved on to new work-related projects, without me, and it became very clear that we really had very little interpersonal things in common. We had a lot of really amazing parties and when I left, everyone, including him, was surprised.

Some signs people could have picked up on other than the stuff I bolded:

- we hosted a lot of stuff but didn't really do things together - even the parties we hosted, we were usually doing things in parallel (e.g., him grilling things and me hanging out on the porch on the other side of the house)
- he wasn't physically affectionate with me at all
- he never talked about my accomplishments, ever
- he was never around for kid stuff - to this day doesn't know her friends or go to any of her school stuff (she's 9)

[Anonymous]

Some statistics to complement the anecdotes;

• 41 percent of first marriages end in divorce.
• 60 percent of second marriages end in divorce.
• 73 percent of third marriages end in divorce.

• If you've attended college, your risk of divorce decreases by 13 percent.
• If your parents are happily married, your risk of divorce decreases by 14 percent.
• For people who wait to marry until they are over the age of 25, your risk of divorce decreases by 24 percent.
• For couples with children, the divorce rate is 40 percent lower than couples without children.

• The average length of a marriage that ends in divorce is 8 years.
• The average age for couples going through their first divorce is 30 years old.

• 28 percent of children living with a divorced parent live in a household with an income below the poverty line.
• 43 percent of children growing up in America today are being raised without their fathers.

[Anonymous]

EXTREMELY extroverted couples who host everything. People are usually the most surprised by these divorces. However, if you were paying attention all along, you would have seen that much of their relationship is about other people and structured activities. They often put on a good front. These are the people who are all smiles on Facebook, running off to the pumpkin patch and pressing their own apple cider on the first nice day of fall. I think, very often, they're excessively active socially and on the weekends because they don't really have enough between them to enjoy each other...always has to be a bunch of other people around or some structured activity.

Agree with this!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Some statistics to complement the anecdotes;

• 41 percent of first marriages end in divorce.
• 60 percent of second marriages end in divorce.
• 73 percent of third marriages end in divorce.

• If you've attended college, your risk of divorce decreases by 13 percent.
• If your parents are happily married, your risk of divorce decreases by 14 percent.
• For people who wait to marry until they are over the age of 25, your risk of divorce decreases by 24 percent.
• For couples with children, the divorce rate is 40 percent lower than couples without children.

• The average length of a marriage that ends in divorce is 8 years.
• The average age for couples going through their first divorce is 30 years old.

• 28 percent of children living with a divorced parent live in a household with an income below the poverty line.
• 43 percent of children growing up in America today are being raised without their fathers.

That's heartbreaking (to clarify - if you've got two Moms, I don't feel bad for you)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Some statistics to complement the anecdotes;

• 41 percent of first marriages end in divorce.
• 60 percent of second marriages end in divorce.
• 73 percent of third marriages end in divorce.

• If you've attended college, your risk of divorce decreases by 13 percent. ME
• If your parents are happily married, your risk of divorce decreases by 14 percent. ME
• For people who wait to marry until they are over the age of 25, your risk of divorce decreases by 24 percent.ME
• For couples with children, the divorce rate is 40 percent lower than couples without children. ME

• The average length of a marriage that ends in divorce is 8 years.
• The average age for couples going through their first divorce is 30 years old.

• 28 percent of children living with a divorced parent live in a household with an income below the poverty line.
• 43 percent of children growing up in America today are being raised without their fathers.

No wonder I've been happily married a long time! I wonder if there is a stat on frequent sex as that has to be an important statistic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Some statistics to complement the anecdotes;

• 41 percent of first marriages end in divorce.
• 60 percent of second marriages end in divorce.
• 73 percent of third marriages end in divorce.

• If you've attended college, your risk of divorce decreases by 13 percent.
• If your parents are happily married, your risk of divorce decreases by 14 percent.
• For people who wait to marry until they are over the age of 25, your risk of divorce decreases by 24 percent.
• For couples with children, the divorce rate is 40 percent lower than couples without children.

• The average length of a marriage that ends in divorce is 8 years.
• The average age for couples going through their first divorce is 30 years old.

• 28 percent of children living with a divorced parent live in a household with an income below the poverty line.
• 43 percent of children growing up in America today are being raised without their fathers.

That's heartbreaking (to clarify - if you've got two Moms, I don't feel bad for you)

Agree, and it is significantly higher in AA households which makes breaking out of poverty even more challenging.

[Anonymous]

Observations from divorced couples I know (I'm a mid 30's male).

- My sister cheated while engaged, and told her fiancé 2 weeks before the wedding. He called it off. I can't really blame him. Not a divorce, but very close to it.

- Good friend's wife cheated, he tried to reconcile, then he caught her again (months later) with a different guy. Two elementary school kids. He has custody, she lives with the younger BF. Sad.

- Crazy female friend got married when she wasn't ready, and acted extremely poorly (no cheating, though). Marriage broke up within the first year, and she treated her ex like dirt during the acrimonious breakup. He kind of dodged a bullet there. She is now happily married and seems to have matured considerably.

- Another female friend left her husband and traded up. Husband was a nice guy, but going nowhere. Long term BF is older, wealthy, but will never marry her. She has one child with her ex-husband. I feel sorry for the guy.

- Another female friend left her husband, and has sole custody of their one child. Barely dates, and has a really tough live economically. She was educated, he was not. I think she married him to spite her parents. The guy was a nice guy, but they had absolutely nothing in common, and her family treated him like dirt.

- Female friend married her college sweetheart. He was crazy about her, but I think she married him due to a combination of inertia and more brotherly than spousal love. She's a free spirit, he's a bright and successful yuppy. He wanted kids, she wouldn't do it. Together 5 years, and I suspect she cheated on him numerous times. She finally told him she had fallen in love with someone else, and he took it well. He now has a hyper successful career, a younger wife, and 2 kids. Way better off than he would have been with his ex. Ex wife is also married (to the guy she left her husband for). They are happy, one kid, but as free spirits, are not financially secure. She tried some of the same crap with current husband, and he moved out twice. I think she has learned her lesson.

- Female friend who found out husband was a serial cheater. Two young kids, one SN. They really loved each other, he just didn't keep it in his pants. She left him, and both were miserable without each other, but she refused to take him back (I can't blame her. He cheated on her with a lot of women.) He died tragically a few years after the divorce, and she was a wreck. I suspect they might have gotten back together if he could really prove he had changed over a longer term period.

I saw all but #2 coming a mile away. My sister is selfish and manipulative, with substance issues, that operates at the emotional level of a 16 year old in every aspect of her life. Everyone knew #3 never should have gotten married, and told both parties so in advance of the proposal. #4 is a shallow narcissist. #5 is too different from ex, and got married for all the wrong reasons. #6 was living in a 60's free love fantasy world, and no man in the world would have put up with her behavior. #7, everyone knew the DH was cheating but the wife, who was in denial over it until her children told her about all the sexts they kept finding on DH's phone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People who got married too young in their 20's or because of a deadline like turning 30are the most predictable for divorce.

Funny - the couples I know who got married straight out of undergrad are still married.

I was the first to get married (after first year of law school). My friends got married shortly after grad school. Everyone has their first baby around 28-30.

All of us are still happily married.

My two cents: when an educated guy wants to commit and have babies, he craves monogamy and isn't likely to stray.

Ditto in our group. The college sweethearts are all still together (got married around 25/26, for the most part). The people in trouble are the ones who got married in their early/mid 30s - I won't use the word desperate but they clearly felt a push and unwittingly overlooked/compromised on a lot, and as the years have gone on the cracks began to show.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People who got married too young in their 20's or because of a deadline like turning 30are the most predictable for divorce.

Funny - the couples I know who got married straight out of undergrad are still married.

I was the first to get married (after first year of law school). My friends got married shortly after grad school. Everyone has their first baby around 28-30.

All of us are still happily married.

My two cents: when an educated guy wants to commit and have babies, he craves monogamy and isn't likely to stray.

Ditto in our group. The college sweethearts are all still together (got married around 25/26, for the most part). The people in trouble are the ones who got married in their early/mid 30s - I won't use the word desperate but they clearly felt a push and unwittingly overlooked/compromised on a lot, and as the years have gone on the cracks began to show.

NP here. I'm 32 and witnessing the "early 30s settle down frenzy" in real time. It's like the music just stopped playing in musical chairs and no one wants to be left standing. People always point to the lower divorce rate for couples who get married around 30 like it is some indicator of happiness.
While these marriages often stay together, but I'm not sure that it is because they are happier. When people have kids in their mid to late 30s, the financial stakes can be much higher when it comes time to divorce (these people have to plan for kid expenses, college, and retirement all at once). This group also tends to be more educated and can weigh the consequences of divorce much more easily. They know they'll have less time to rebuild. So while they might not divorce, I definitely don't think that couples who marry later are generally better matched, even though they theoretically should be.

People who get together very young (in college) often had their choice of many partners. These are people who chose each other when there were tons of people around them who were single, not when they they were hearing the clock go tick-tock. Therefore, I think there is a good chance - for those couples who work out - that these people are highly, highly compatible.