Data-driven lottery predictions!

[Anonymous]

How about Latin 2nd Street for 8th and 9th? No sibling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How about Latin 2nd Street for 8th and 9th? No sibling.

I'm not the OP, but I can tell you (having spent a lot of time looking at those numbers), that for 8th it's virtually 0. 2nd St takes *maybe* one kid a year between 5th and 9th. I've heard of siblings not getting a spot until 9th.

For 9th, there are usually 15-20 spots total. Siblings take up 10 - 12 of those spots. Equitable access is about 3 - 4. So again, you're looking at 1 - 5 9th grade spots for non-sibling, non-Equitable Access kids. I don't know the exact percentage, but I think there are well over 300 kids who list it on their lottery forms.

[Anonymous]

9th for Eastern, Sojourner Truth

[Anonymous]

OP! You’re the new (Data Backed!) Guru! Yay!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here with a clarification: I am ONLY taking into account historical data, an average of the past five years.

Things I am NOT taking into account:

Trends
Housing prices
Changes to feeder patterns
Budgets
Projected enrollments
Modernizations
Private schools
Seats offered for this year (I am not aware of how that data is made available at this stage).

I would have to factor in DCI feeder rights if I had a person with DCI on their 6th grade list but I'd have to learn about it first

If someone has comments about any of the above factors, or any other factors, for any specific lists, feel free to respond to my responses with that info and how you'd adjust the chances based on that.

Now - back to predictions!

Seats offered is not public. It's not even decided yet.

I don't think there are significant feeder and boundary changes for this year. But in years where there are a lot of changes simultaneously, like the every 10 years boundary review or a new school like MacArthur opens, you would need to think about it.

This is not true. Principals know, as do LSATs if they told them. Our LSAT discussed the specific number of seats we're offering in each grade.

At charters it's not necessarily decided yet. And also, principals and LSATs can still make changes if there is reason to. If we're talking about the initial lottery, time is almost up. But if we're talking opening up more seats later, that can happen anytime.

For DCPS schools, it is already decided. The deadline was the lottery deadline and it passed. No idea if charter schools are treated differently, but given what they use this 2 weeks for (can't list new schools can only re-rank), I would guess it's done for charter schools too absent exceptional circumstances. FYSA you don't need to "open up" a set number of seats after the initial lottery. You draw from the waitlist in principal's discretion and can do it one at a time or in chunks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

Ack, sorry that's hard to read, my spacing got removed. But the first row, for example, is for 2021-2022, there were 56 matches with no preference, there were 288 people on the waitlist, and they made 13 offers by October. Which meant that 20% of people who wanted Latin 2nd street got an offer that year (69/344). Hopefully that helps you read my chart.

The problem is that your numbers take into account siblings. That is, the 52 matches were 50% siblings, so non-siblings are actually competing for 26 spots. It changes the math entirely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

Ack, sorry that's hard to read, my spacing got removed. But the first row, for example, is for 2021-2022, there were 56 matches with no preference, there were 288 people on the waitlist, and they made 13 offers by October. Which meant that 20% of people who wanted Latin 2nd street got an offer that year (69/344). Hopefully that helps you read my chart.

The problem is that your numbers take into account siblings. That is, the 52 matches were 50% siblings, so non-siblings are actually competing for 26 spots. It changes the math entirely.

I would add that taking into account Cooper year 1 and 2 also throws things off entirely. And, especially Cooper 6th is now close to zero. You can't count the years where they were filling their class for the first time!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

Ack, sorry that's hard to read, my spacing got removed. But the first row, for example, is for 2021-2022, there were 56 matches with no preference, there were 288 people on the waitlist, and they made 13 offers by October. Which meant that 20% of people who wanted Latin 2nd street got an offer that year (69/344). Hopefully that helps you read my chart.

The problem is that your numbers take into account siblings. That is, the 52 matches were 50% siblings, so non-siblings are actually competing for 26 spots. It changes the math entirely.

Oh no. If OP didn’t take siblings out, it means the charter numbers are all useless in the entry grades and DCPS for ECE.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

Ack, sorry that's hard to read, my spacing got removed. But the first row, for example, is for 2021-2022, there were 56 matches with no preference, there were 288 people on the waitlist, and they made 13 offers by October. Which meant that 20% of people who wanted Latin 2nd street got an offer that year (69/344). Hopefully that helps you read my chart.

The problem is that your numbers take into account siblings. That is, the 52 matches were 50% siblings, so non-siblings are actually competing for 26 spots. It changes the math entirely.

This is false. There were 71 matches. 52 of those were "no preference" matches. OP did the math correctly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here with a clarification: I am ONLY taking into account historical data, an average of the past five years.

Things I am NOT taking into account:

Trends
Housing prices
Changes to feeder patterns
Budgets
Projected enrollments
Modernizations
Private schools
Seats offered for this year (I am not aware of how that data is made available at this stage).

I would have to factor in DCI feeder rights if I had a person with DCI on their 6th grade list but I'd have to learn about it first

If someone has comments about any of the above factors, or any other factors, for any specific lists, feel free to respond to my responses with that info and how you'd adjust the chances based on that.

Now - back to predictions!

Seats offered is not public. It's not even decided yet.

I don't think there are significant feeder and boundary changes for this year. But in years where there are a lot of changes simultaneously, like the every 10 years boundary review or a new school like MacArthur opens, you would need to think about it.

This is not true. Principals know, as do LSATs if they told them. Our LSAT discussed the specific number of seats we're offering in each grade.

At charters it's not necessarily decided yet. And also, principals and LSATs can still make changes if there is reason to. If we're talking about the initial lottery, time is almost up. But if we're talking opening up more seats later, that can happen anytime.

For DCPS schools, it is already decided. The deadline was the lottery deadline and it passed. No idea if charter schools are treated differently, but given what they use this 2 weeks for (can't list new schools can only re-rank), I would guess it's done for charter schools too absent exceptional circumstances. FYSA you don't need to "open up" a set number of seats after the initial lottery. You draw from the waitlist in principal's discretion and can do it one at a time or in chunks.

But OP is talking about total waitlist offers through October. If a DCPS school is given permission to add a classroom after the lottery, thats what I mean by opening up more seats. The lottery applicants won't see that data, they'll just perceive the waitlist moving fast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First grader and PK-4. Brent or bust. (Well, Brent or stay at our current, acceptable school.)

Planning to move to Maryland before middle. No, we can't move yet.

This is one where current circumstances matter a LOT - this will be their second year in a swing space and you can really see the difference in the numbers, so I'm giving you results based on last year, and the four years before that.

Last Year - 73%, and sibling preference would mean they'd both prob get a spot.

Four Previous Years: Your 1st grader has an 8% chance. Your PK4 has essentially no chance of getting in, even if the 1st grader does.

Fingers crossed for you - this year is your big chance!

Thank you!! Wish we'd done this last year! 73 percent is high. But we expected to stay at our current school (and still will if this doesn't work out).

[Anonymous]

OP, I am sending you a virtual bouquet of flowers. Thank you for the fun thread!

Now you just need a cool nickname. The Green Eye Shade Guru? The Lottery Nerd? Someone more creative than I am please weigh in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ok I’ll play. PK3.
SWS
Van Ness (proximity)
AppleTree LP
CHML
JO Wilson
Miner

Would not move after school starts.

SWS - 2%
Van Ness (proximity) - 0%
AppleTree LP - 57%
CHML - 0%
JO Wilson - 16%
Miner - 13%
Nothing - 12%

Interesting fact about School Within School - if I'm reading this data right, there were two SIBLINGS who didn't get in for PK3 last year. Those parents must be furious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How about Latin 2nd Street for 8th and 9th? No sibling.

OP here - but are those two siblings with each other? The one going into 8th and the one going into 9th? Or are you asking, for example, because you're going to lottery for your rising 8th grader this year and then if he doesn't get in, again next year for 9th?

[Anonymous]

Just the non-selective high schools on my list for 9th:

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
DCI French
DCI Chinese
DCI Spanish
Eastern
Sojourner Truth
EL Haynes