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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]OP here with a clarification: I am ONLY taking into account historical data, an average of the past five years.

Things I am NOT taking into account:

Trends
Housing prices
Changes to feeder patterns
Budgets
Projected enrollments
Modernizations
Private schools
Seats offered for this year (I am not aware of how that data is made available at this stage).

I would have to factor in DCI feeder rights if I had a person with DCI on their 6th grade list but I'd have to learn about it first :-)

If someone has comments about any of the above factors, or any other factors, for any specific lists, feel free to respond to my responses with that info and how you'd adjust the chances based on that.

Now - back to predictions![/quote]

[b]Seats offered is not public. It's not even decided yet. [/b]

I don't think there are significant feeder and boundary changes for this year. But in years where there are a lot of changes simultaneously, like the every 10 years boundary review or a new school like MacArthur opens, you would need to think about it.[/quote]

This is not true. Principals know, as do LSATs if they told them. Our LSAT discussed the specific number of seats we're offering in each grade.[/quote]

At charters it's not necessarily decided yet. And also, principals and LSATs can still make changes if there is reason to. If we're talking about the initial lottery, time is almost up. But if we're talking opening up more seats later, that can happen anytime.[/quote]

For DCPS schools, it is already decided. The deadline was the lottery deadline and it passed. No idea if charter schools are treated differently, but given what they use this 2 weeks for (can't list new schools can only re-rank), I would guess it's done for charter schools too absent exceptional circumstances. FYSA you don't need to "open up" a set number of seats after the initial lottery. You draw from the waitlist in principal's discretion and can do it one at a time or in chunks. [/quote]

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