Data-driven lottery predictions!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'll play. K. Happy with our current school so I only lotteried for true reaches that I'd actually leave for: Ross and Ludlow-Taylor.

OP here - assuming you'd change schools in October:

Ross - 18%
LT - 10%
Nothing - 72%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

Thank you!! That's about what I expected, but I didn't think Cooper would have a lower probability than 2nd St! Also, with my older kid, it felt like everyone we knew got in Basis, but that's clearly not the case!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here with a clarification: I am ONLY taking into account historical data, an average of the past five years.

Things I am NOT taking into account:

Trends
Housing prices
Changes to feeder patterns
Budgets
Projected enrollments
Modernizations
Private schools
Seats offered for this year (I am not aware of how that data is made available at this stage).

I would have to factor in DCI feeder rights if I had a person with DCI on their 6th grade list but I'd have to learn about it first

If someone has comments about any of the above factors, or any other factors, for any specific lists, feel free to respond to my responses with that info and how you'd adjust the chances based on that.

Now - back to predictions!

Seats offered is not public. It's not even decided yet.

I don't think there are significant feeder and boundary changes for this year. But in years where there are a lot of changes simultaneously, like the every 10 years boundary review or a new school like MacArthur opens, you would need to think about it.

This is not true. Principals know, as do LSATs if they told them. Our LSAT discussed the specific number of seats we're offering in each grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

Thank you!! That's about what I expected, but I didn't think Cooper would have a lower probability than 2nd St! Also, with my older kid, it felt like everyone we knew got in Basis, but that's clearly not the case!

Oh wait - I think I misread that. Cooper is 14% chance of getting in if you didn't get in to 2nd St. So not really a lower probability, necessarily

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here with a clarification: I am ONLY taking into account historical data, an average of the past five years.

Things I am NOT taking into account:

Trends
Housing prices
Changes to feeder patterns
Budgets
Projected enrollments
Modernizations
Private schools
Seats offered for this year (I am not aware of how that data is made available at this stage).

I would have to factor in DCI feeder rights if I had a person with DCI on their 6th grade list but I'd have to learn about it first

If someone has comments about any of the above factors, or any other factors, for any specific lists, feel free to respond to my responses with that info and how you'd adjust the chances based on that.

Now - back to predictions!

Seats offered is not public. It's not even decided yet.

I don't think there are significant feeder and boundary changes for this year. But in years where there are a lot of changes simultaneously, like the every 10 years boundary review or a new school like MacArthur opens, you would need to think about it.

This is not true. Principals know, as do LSATs if they told them. Our LSAT discussed the specific number of seats we're offering in each grade.

At charters it's not necessarily decided yet. And also, principals and LSATs can still make changes if there is reason to. If we're talking about the initial lottery, time is almost up. But if we're talking opening up more seats later, that can happen anytime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:First grader and PK-4. Brent or bust. (Well, Brent or stay at our current, acceptable school.)

Planning to move to Maryland before middle. No, we can't move yet.

This is one where current circumstances matter a LOT - this will be their second year in a swing space and you can really see the difference in the numbers, so I'm giving you results based on last year, and the four years before that.

Last Year - 73%, and sibling preference would mean they'd both prob get a spot.

Four Previous Years: Your 1st grader has an 8% chance. Your PK4 has essentially no chance of getting in, even if the 1st grader does.

Fingers crossed for you - this year is your big chance!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

[Anonymous]

What about Equitable Access?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

Thank you!! That's about what I expected, but I didn't think Cooper would have a lower probability than 2nd St! Also, with my older kid, it felt like everyone we knew got in Basis, but that's clearly not the case!

Oh wait - I think I misread that. Cooper is 14% chance of getting in if you didn't get in to 2nd St. So not really a lower probability, necessarily

Correct - and Basis is assuming you don't get into the Latins - if you just put Basis, you've got a 57% shot assuming no preference. So better-than-even odds, but certainly far from a guarantee.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What about Equitable Access?

OP here - I do not know the details on how that works. I don't think it's relevant for calculating your odds assuming you don't have Equitable Access since it's a set-aside, not a preference so I don't think it impacts the math here. Happy to be proven wrong. If you do have equitable access, I can try and figure your odds out based on your list (but I'll have less confidence!)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

Ack, sorry that's hard to read, my spacing got removed. But the first row, for example, is for 2021-2022, there were 56 matches with no preference, there were 288 people on the waitlist, and they made 13 offers by October. Which meant that 20% of people who wanted Latin 2nd street got an offer that year (69/344). Hopefully that helps you read my chart.

[Anonymous]

Ok I’ll play. PK3.
SWS
Van Ness (proximity)
AppleTree LP
CHML
JO Wilson
Miner

Would not move after school starts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year Matches WL Offers - Oct Chance (offers over applications)
21-22 56 288 13. 20%
22-23 45 323 6 14%
23-24 40 343 11 13%
24-25 46 429 36 17%
25-26 52 501 9 11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?

I did an analysis of MS lottery chances in the fall. These percentages look right to me. Last year's 4th grade class and this year's 4th grade class are rather large, so unfortunately I think PP's chances will be closer to the 25-26 numbers than the average over years.