Data-driven lottery predictions!
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Anonymous
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I'm having a slow day at work - I just ran the numbers (based on past lottery seats, waitlist progress, etc) predicting my family's chances in the lottery this year (low, ha, we only went for reaches). Happy to run the math for other folks!
Please provide: Grade School list (in order) Preferences (if applicable) Which schools you'd move for if you got an offer after school starts PK, Elem, and Middle only, I don't know anything about the application high school process. |
Anonymous
| Can you share a git repo? We can make this into a site. |
Anonymous
OP here - ha - I'm not that fancy, this is a combo of back-of-the-napkin and google sheets. |
Anonymous
| What resources are you using? |
Anonymous
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2nd grade
Shepherd Lafayette Murch No preferences. Wouldn't move (or need to). |
Anonymous
OP here. This dashboard with historic seats and waitlist movement: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay Combined with this one that lets you see the preferences for waitlisted people where applicable: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjA5ZmM4Y2MtZThmOC00YjVkLTkwN2EtMzIwNzU2MjYwNmZkIiwidCI6IjJhYTA0NmVlLWIzNGUtNGEzMy05MmI3LTk5OWRmMmJjMGEzMiIsImMiOjF9&pageName=ReportSection9c9c63d3e065263500e1 Plus knowledge of the lottery process and some hand-wavy assumptions. |
Anonymous
OP here - thank you for playing! Assuming you would take a WL offer over the summer: Shepherd - 11% Lafayette - 8% Murch - 0% Nothing - 81% Best of luck to you! |
Anonymous
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Ooo.
Folks may recognize me from other threads: Ross Garrison ITDS EL Haynes John Lewis Lee Montessori - Brookland K and 1st, they'll have sibling preference with each other. Would absolutely move after school starts. |
Anonymous
OP here. Two kids at once gives you a big leg up, but also makes this harder to calculate. I went ahead and assumed that if one gets in to a school, they pull the other one in to simplify the math. That's probably mostly a reasonable assumption, but probably over-represents your odds a bit, particularly for Ross where they take so few kids, and for an October waitlist offer, which may come too late to bring in the other. So keep that in mind when looking at this - your chances are probably lower than this (esp. at Ross). Oh and note to everyone - I'm using five year averages for this. Ross - 23% Garrison - 73% ITDS - 0% Haynes - 0% Lewis - 2% Lee - 0% Nothing - 2% Bottom line - have fun at Garrison! |
Anonymous
Wait, zero at Lee? Lee Brookland made 21 K and 15 1st grade offers last year. Are you using the October column? |
Anonymous
OP here - yes, you would have a decent shot at Lee, except if you're getting into Lee, you're getting into Garrison, and Garrison is listed first. So that takes Lee off the table. Sorry - if you were excited about Lee, you'd need to list it above schools like Garrison and John Lewis to have any chance of matching there. |
Anonymous
Correct. You must list in preference order! |
Anonymous
Also, PP, it’s not too late! You can reorder your list until 3/13, I believe! |
Anonymous
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PK3: (actually live within Powell boundaries)
LAMB Oyster Powell Bancroft (English) Bruce-Monroe (English) Marie Reed (English) Lewis Barnard Dorothy Height |
Anonymous
OP with some clarifying questions. So you have IB preference at Powell? Which schools (if any) would you move for after school starts. |