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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]This is a super fun thread! Thanks, OP!

I’ll play!

5th:
- Latin 2nd st
- Latin cooper
- Basis

Would move after school starts[/quote]

You are so welcome! This is a fun one because I'd guess there's a whoooooole lot of 5th grade lists that either look like this or start like this.

- Latin 2nd st - 15%
- Latin Cooper - 14%
- Basis - 28%
- Nothing - 43%[/quote]

These Latin percentages are way too high if no sibling. Are you not taking sibling preference into account? Because when I say too high, I mean WAY too high. The Cooper one is especially off.[/quote]

OP here - I'm taking sibling preference into account. You can check my math if you'd like, happy to be proven wrong in my methods, and recognizing this is NOT perfect, but just the best I can do with pretty easy math. Looking just at Latin 2nd St, 5th grade entry, as a sample, and only looking at no preference matches:

Year 	Matches	WL	Offers - Oct     Chance (offers over applications)
21-22	56	288	13.                      20%
22-23	45	323	6                         14%
23-24	40	343	11                       13% 
24-25	46	429	36                       17% 
25-26	52	501	9                         11%

That averages out to a 15% shot.

Now, that is certainly trending down - as I mentioned, I'm not taking into account trends, just five year averages, so maybe that's the disconnect?[/quote]

Ack, sorry that's hard to read, my spacing got removed. But the first row, for example, is for 2021-2022, there were 56 matches with no preference, there were 288 people on the waitlist, and they made 13 offers by October. Which meant that 20% of people who wanted Latin 2nd street got an offer that year (69/344). Hopefully that helps you read my chart.[/quote]

The problem is that your numbers take into account siblings. That is, the 52 matches were 50% siblings, so non-siblings are actually competing for 26 spots. It changes the math entirely. [/quote]

Oh no. If OP didn’t take siblings out, it means the charter numbers are all useless in the entry grades and DCPS for ECE. [/quote]

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