Betting Markets

[Anonymous]

Prediction markets are a useless metric for knowing who's likely to win the election whether they're favoring your preferred candidate or her opponent. People betting on them don't have access to any secret information besides what the rest of us can read, i.e., polls, and averaging the polls together gets you the same aggregate wisdom as a betting market does but without additional weird factors like, oh, $30 million bets by French whales, or a way-more-into-crypto-than-the-overall-electorate betting population.

If you're a Harris supporter who's now suddenly hailing PredictIt toplines, go log off and see a movie today instead.

[Anonymous]

DJT, TSLA and BTC are all up today.

Markets are of course never perfect, but it’s a useful signal.

[Anonymous]

How many crypto bros are going to permanently self-harm when this all collapses?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Prediction markets are a useless metric for knowing who's likely to win the election whether they're favoring your preferred candidate or her opponent. People betting on them don't have access to any secret information besides what the rest of us can read, i.e., polls, and averaging the polls together gets you the same aggregate wisdom as a betting market does but without additional weird factors like, oh, $30 million bets by French whales, or a way-more-into-crypto-than-the-overall-electorate betting population.

If you're a Harris supporter who's now suddenly hailing PredictIt toplines, go log off and see a movie today instead.

The influence of the French whale on Polymarket has been over exaggerated. His bet is less than 1% of the total bet on Poly.

[Anonymous]

Trumps odds are up in all the betting markets and climbing. Not sure how frequently they update on Election Day though

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trumps odds are up in all the betting markets and climbing. Not sure how frequently they update on Election Day though

The markets are live.

TSLA is up 4.4% since open and BTC is now above 70k. DJT is up 13.4% since open but has fallen a bit since 10am.

Not sure what investors are seeing that makes them more bullish on Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trumps odds are up in all the betting markets and climbing. Not sure how frequently they update on Election Day though

The markets are live.

TSLA is up 4.4% since open and BTC is now above 70k. DJT is up 13.4% since open but has fallen a bit since 10am.

Not sure what investors are seeing that makes them more bullish on Trump.

"Investors" don't trade DJT, but gamblers definitely do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trumps odds are up in all the betting markets and climbing. Not sure how frequently they update on Election Day though

The markets are live.

TSLA is up 4.4% since open and BTC is now above 70k. DJT is up 13.4% since open but has fallen a bit since 10am.

Not sure what investors are seeing that makes them more bullish on Trump.

Gamblers love to double-down.

It may also be a hedge by Harris supporters, in case she loses ("It sucks she lost, but at least I'm now wealthier").

[Anonymous]

Looks like odds have tilted even more to Trumps favor.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/11/05/election-betting-odds-trump-leads-harris-as-voting-enters-final-hours/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trumps odds are up in all the betting markets and climbing. Not sure how frequently they update on Election Day though

The markets are live.

TSLA is up 4.4% since open and BTC is now above 70k. DJT is up 13.4% since open but has fallen a bit since 10am.

Not sure what investors are seeing that makes them more bullish on Trump.

"Investors" don't trade DJT, but gamblers definitely do.

This did not age well. DJT closed down after falling so precipitously that it shut down trading.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looks like odds have tilted even more to Trumps favor.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/11/05/election-betting-odds-trump-leads-harris-as-voting-enters-final-hours/

Are they watching turnout or something else? Trying to figure out how nervous I should be... I thought things were looking good for Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like odds have tilted even more to Trumps favor.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/11/05/election-betting-odds-trump-leads-harris-as-voting-enters-final-hours/

Are they watching turnout or something else? Trying to figure out how nervous I should be... I thought things were looking good for Harris.

Honestly, I have no idea

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DJT, TSLA and BTC are all up today.

Markets are of course never perfect, but it’s a useful signal.

It's not a useful signal if it's manipulated because it's percieved as a signal. With real companies, like Palantir which I'm surprised you didn't mention, there are also things like earnings which have nothing to do with electoral anticipation.

But we'll find out soon enough. Hope you YOLO'd DJT.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like odds have tilted even more to Trumps favor.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/11/05/election-betting-odds-trump-leads-harris-as-voting-enters-final-hours/

Are they watching turnout or something else? Trying to figure out how nervous I should be... I thought things were looking good for Harris.

Peter Theil is heavily connected to Polymarket.

[Anonymous]

When does the market “close”?