Betting Markets

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not interesting to look at them, but it's very possible there's a bias among the people that are placing the bets. They might not even realize it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not interesting to look at them, but it's very possible there's a bias among the people that are placing the bets. They might not even realize it.

ya think?

They aren't even legal in the US, so it isn't Americans putting this money down and in many cases, it is billionaires tossing money around as a manipulation scheme. the fact that people posting here took it seriously enough as a barameter or metric is the tell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not interesting to look at them, but it's very possible there's a bias among the people that are placing the bets. They might not even realize it.

ya think?

They aren't even legal in the US, so it isn't Americans putting this money down and in many cases, it is billionaires tossing money around as a manipulation scheme. the fact that people posting here took it seriously enough as a barameter or metric is the tell.

Incorrect.

US citizens/residents may place money legally on both Predictit and Kalshi.

[Anonymous]

Trump’s odds rebounded today.

PredictIt now has Trump and Harris even at 54c.

Polymarket has Trump at 59.7% vs Harris at 40.5%.

Kalshi has Trump at 56% vs Harris at 44%.

DJT stock rose 12% today, but TSLA and Bitcoin both fell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not interesting to look at them, but it's very possible there's a bias among the people that are placing the bets. They might not even realize it.

ya think?

They aren't even legal in the US, so it isn't Americans putting this money down and in many cases, it is billionaires tossing money around as a manipulation scheme. the fact that people posting here took it seriously enough as a barameter or metric is the tell.

Incorrect.

US citizens/residents may place money legally on both Predictit and Kalshi.

Better that, only US citizens are allowed to bet on PredictIt. The site is blocked outside of the US.

Not that it should matter though. People outside of the US are very capable of forming informed views on potential election outcomes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump’s odds rebounded today.

PredictIt now has Trump and Harris even at 54c.

Polymarket has Trump at 59.7% vs Harris at 40.5%.

Kalshi has Trump at 56% vs Harris at 44%.

DJT stock rose 12% today, but TSLA and Bitcoin both fell.

Well that's all over the place. I guess using betting markets to get any clarity on an election is not going to pay off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

As PP at 18:11 pointed out, they're not. Arbitrage opportunities abound!

[Anonymous]

How does one place a bet? I'm hearing 60-40.
So I can bet 200 on Harris and make a quick 300.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How does one place a bet? I'm hearing 60-40.
So I can bet 200 on Harris and make a quick 300.

Polymarket only accepts crypto and I don’t think you can legally use it in the US.

You can invest up to $850 on PredictIt. If your candidate wins, you’ll almost double your money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

As PP at 18:11 pointed out, they're not. Arbitrage opportunities abound!

I haven’t looked into it, but it’s possible that the price differences reflect the differences in how the “winner” is defined. That is, one may define the winner by the number of electoral votes and another by who is inaugurated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?

I don’t think you understand betting markets. Taking a position is not a vote, it’s a way to make money by making a prediction of what is going to happen. That the users are not representative, doesn’t mean anything unless users are consciously throwing away their own money. If betting markets are efficient, they will represent the consensus forecast because people wanting to make money - and everyone wants to make money - will take positions when the odds do not align with their own expectations. They are thus as good an indication as anything of the likelihood of either candidate being elected.

As PP at 18:11 pointed out, they're not. Arbitrage opportunities abound!

Not after the vig.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

I remember the betting markets had Obamacare being overturned by the Supreme Court right up until the opinion was released.

They were wrong.

[Anonymous]

The odds on PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi all moved sharply in Trump’s favor overnight.

PredictIt is now 55-52; Polymarket is 62-38; and Kalshi is 59-41.

This is interesting because the predictions of the poll aggregators have moved the other way. Both 538 and Silver are slightly favoring Harris after having Trump ahead for weeks.

I guess those involved in the betting markets think the Rogan and Haley endorsements will sway a lot of voters. It’s hard to see what else has changed in the past day.