Betting Markets

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

Women 65+ turning out for Harris in the Iowa poll have probably placed zero bets on that website. I'd WAGER it's 99% men.

Absolutely mostly men that are used to betting online. Really not sure this is a group particularly tuned into what will drive this election outcome.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

Women 65+ turning out for Harris in the Iowa poll have probably placed zero bets on that website. I'd WAGER it's 99% men.

Absolutely mostly men that are used to betting online. Really not sure this is a group particularly tuned into what will drive this election outcome.

"Men used to betting online."

i.e. the "I just need to hit one 47-leg parlay and I can retire!" demographic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

Women 65+ turning out for Harris in the Iowa poll have probably placed zero bets on that website. I'd WAGER it's 99% men.

Absolutely mostly men that are used to betting online. Really not sure this is a group particularly tuned into what will drive this election outcome.

"Men used to betting online."

i.e. the "I just need to hit one 47-leg parlay and I can retire!" demographic.

I don’t even know what that means…

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

Women 65+ turning out for Harris in the Iowa poll have probably placed zero bets on that website. I'd WAGER it's 99% men.

Absolutely mostly men that are used to betting online. Really not sure this is a group particularly tuned into what will drive this election outcome.

"Men used to betting online."

i.e. the "I just need to hit one 47-leg parlay and I can retire!" demographic.

I don’t even know what that means…

Exactly. But you are going to vote along with millions of other voters that don't know what means.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

Women 65+ turning out for Harris in the Iowa poll have probably placed zero bets on that website. I'd WAGER it's 99% men.

Absolutely mostly men that are used to betting online. Really not sure this is a group particularly tuned into what will drive this election outcome.

"Men used to betting online."

i.e. the "I just need to hit one 47-leg parlay and I can retire!" demographic.

I don’t even know what that means…

An "X-leg parlay" is a string of X number of separate bets that all have to win or else you lose everything. They are where sports betting sites make most of their money because the parlays generally have much worse odds than the bets themselves because they know that nobody is going to go through and do the math on each bet. Stupid people are attracted to them because they promise huge payouts on low bets.

Seeing as we know that low intelligence and educational attainment is correlated with both being a Trump voter and a frequent gambler, it would stand to reason that stupid people who make stupid bets would disproportionately bet on a Trump win.

[Anonymous]

Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

Women 65+ turning out for Harris in the Iowa poll have probably placed zero bets on that website. I'd WAGER it's 99% men.

Absolutely mostly men that are used to betting online. Really not sure this is a group particularly tuned into what will drive this election outcome.

"Men used to betting online."

i.e. the "I just need to hit one 47-leg parlay and I can retire!" demographic.

I'm a woman and don't know what this means, I just know I'm not betting my retirement money on sports or elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

There are plenty of people on Predictit taking betting positions contrary to their vote. They do engage in trash talking others' betting positions. And sometimes their political views if they are so unwise as to reveal that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is there an online chat forum that accompanies these bets? I would bet that the million granny march down to the polls for Harris is not well represented in that chat. Or possibly in whatever other data is being used by these guys to place their bets.

Predictit is the only one that has a chat worth looking at. (I haven't looked recently at Poly but when I did the chat was sparse and poorly moderated.) Scroll down below the current results on Predictit.

Yes, they have talked about the view that Harris may win the senior women vote on Predictit. There are nuggets in the chat, but be prepared to scroll through a fair amount of trash talking.

What do you mean trash talking? Is this place full of people actually wanting to make money or is it more people expressing their political views??

I think you know the answer to that.

I seriously have no idea. I don't have a lot of confidence that is the most robust place to look for insight into this election outcome from the little i know. But carry on boys. I suppose some of you will make some cash.

Haha, just like anywhere else online it’s just people expressing their views. Any site that accepts crypto for bets is going to attract a libertarian-conservative crowd and they all love Trump and especially Elon Musk and that whole tech scene. So yeah, lots of trash talking. Also lots of bets and trash talking by non-US citizens.

Predictit is a dollar, not crypto market. People across the spectrum place bets on it.

Take crypto out of the equation, whatever. To what extent are the views of political bettors - who are definitionally extremely online - representative of the broader electorate?