Betting Markets

[Anonymous]

PredictIt, which is one of the oldest political betting markets, now has Kamala ahead by 4 percentage points: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

[Anonymous]

I love the about face here. When Trump is ahead the betting markets are being manipulated. When Harris is ahead it’s a true reflection of market expectations about the outcome of the election.

[Anonymous]

It’s all BS. For that matter, a 55-45 sort of result still doesn’t mean anyone is winning big, just points to a close race. Maybe this is helpful for trendlines; IMO, since MSG, Trump’s trajectory has changed.

Harris voter.

[Anonymous]

Weren’t they all in for a Trump win? Why the sudden change?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s all BS. For that matter, a 55-45 sort of result still doesn’t mean anyone is winning big, just points to a close race. Maybe this is helpful for trendlines; IMO, since MSG, Trump’s trajectory has changed.

Harris voter.

It’s interesting to look at how the odds have changed over the past month. Trump was favored at 62c as of October 25, but has steadily lost ground over the past week. No one anywhere has any idea who will win, but I think most of us sense that Kamala has had the momentum over the last few days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s all BS. For that matter, a 55-45 sort of result still doesn’t mean anyone is winning big, just points to a close race. Maybe this is helpful for trendlines; IMO, since MSG, Trump’s trajectory has changed.

Harris voter.

It’s interesting to look at how the odds have changed over the past month. Trump was favored at 62c as of October 25, but has steadily lost ground over the past week. No one anywhere has any idea who will win, but I think most of us sense that Kamala has had the momentum over the last few days.

Which gels with Harris campaign’s claim that late breaking voters are going for her by a 2:1 margin.

[Anonymous]

Polymarket still has Trump ahead 55-45, but this down a lot from a few days ago: https://polymarket.com/elections

[Anonymous]

I think we should all keep in mind that the odds of Clinton winning was north of 75% in 2016.

[Anonymous]

I don't view betting markets as predictive but it is a reflection of more people who were unwilling to believe she could win suddenly changing their minds.

It's a data point, not a crystal ball.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I love the about face here. When Trump is ahead the betting markets are being manipulated. When Harris is ahead it’s a true reflection of market expectations about the outcome of the election.

PredictIt isn’t the one that’s most commonly accused of being manipulated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love the about face here. When Trump is ahead the betting markets are being manipulated. When Harris is ahead it’s a true reflection of market expectations about the outcome of the election.

PredictIt isn’t the one that’s most commonly accused of being manipulated.

That’s because they limit betting for a single user to $850. It’s the betting market for Normies. Which is the point - no whales skewing data, no crypto - this results in an arguably more representative user base

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love the about face here. When Trump is ahead the betting markets are being manipulated. When Harris is ahead it’s a true reflection of market expectations about the outcome of the election.

PredictIt isn’t the one that’s most commonly accused of being manipulated.

That’s because they limit betting for a single user to $850. It’s the betting market for Normies. Which is the point - no whales skewing data, no crypto - this results in an arguably more representative user base

A user base not representative of the general population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love the about face here. When Trump is ahead the betting markets are being manipulated. When Harris is ahead it’s a true reflection of market expectations about the outcome of the election.

PredictIt isn’t the one that’s most commonly accused of being manipulated.

That’s because they limit betting for a single user to $850. It’s the betting market for Normies. Which is the point - no whales skewing data, no crypto - this results in an arguably more representative user base

PredictIt’s single user limit is too low to attract serious interest. On the other hand, the lack of a limit on Polymarket means that odds can be skewed by a few large bets (which appears to be what happened a couple of weeks ago).

[Anonymous]

The Predictit site also has this message as of now:
“The Trump presidential winner contract is at or near the trader limit. You may not be able to trade in it at this time.”
Hilarious. Maybe some of the bro goobers will be so busy trading and pumping each other up that they will forget to drag themselves out to vote.

I think the betting market is all BS this time. Destroyed by manipulators and morons. The bit of trend it’s showing over the past week probably has some information value. At least they show that the morons are nervous and some people at least are converging to a more reasonable assessment of the spread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s all BS. For that matter, a 55-45 sort of result still doesn’t mean anyone is winning big, just points to a close race. Maybe this is helpful for trendlines; IMO, since MSG, Trump’s trajectory has changed.

Harris voter.

Agree about Trump and MSG. But bets are weird. They don’t always reflect who the better thinks will win. Some bet on the outsider hoping for a bigger pay off.

FWIW I Have not doubted Harris would win though admittedly the polls are close. I just do t see Trump winning at all.