Betting Markets

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s all BS. For that matter, a 55-45 sort of result still doesn’t mean anyone is winning big, just points to a close race. Maybe this is helpful for trendlines; IMO, since MSG, Trump’s trajectory has changed.

Harris voter.

Agree about Trump and MSG. But bets are weird. They don’t always reflect who the better thinks will win.[b] Some bet on the outsider hoping for a bigger pay off.

FWIW I Have not doubted Harris would win though admittedly the polls are close. I just do t see Trump winning at all.

We can never know for sure, but it’s plausible that some investors are using Polymarket to hedge. That is, if an investor has a lot of money tied up in things that will tank if Trump win’s, they can buy a bunch of Trump contracts on Polymarket to reduce the risk. There is a furniture salesman in Houston who used a similar approach to sports betting - offering free furniture if a large bet on a local sports team paid out.

[Anonymous]

Kalshi now has Trump and Harris even at 50/50. Trump is down 15 points in that market.

[Anonymous]

The spread on PredictIt has narrowed to about a cent. Polymarket remains at 55-45 in favor of Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The spread on PredictIt has narrowed to about a cent. Polymarket remains at 55-45 in favor of Trump.

Betting markets are subject to influence and bias https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/elections/prediction-markets-election-polls.html

This strength can also be seen as a weakness. Prediction markets can react more quickly to election news but can also be more volatile, noisy and subject to outside influences. In early October, Elon Musk posted on X that Mr. Trump’s shares on Polymarket were priced above Ms. Harris’s. Afterward, the price of Trump shares on Polymarket began to climb, and they are outpacing Trump shares even on other prediction markets.

[Anonymous]

crazy how its changing so fast.... it was 67% of Trump on Friday...., Elon and the other people are not betting enough

[Anonymous]

Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

[Anonymous]

Trump train!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

It's only a signal if Harris is ahead.

[Anonymous]

Who cares.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think we should all keep in mind that the odds of Clinton winning was north of 75% in 2016.

There is something to tell about this, but for the sake of our democracy, we will not say it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I love the about face here. When Trump is ahead the betting markets are being manipulated. When Harris is ahead it’s a true reflection of market expectations about the outcome of the election.

Naw, Harris voter here and I don't think the betting markets have any credibility at all and shouldn't be used as a proxy for who is ahead. They're too easily manipulated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump has gained a few cents on both PredictIt and Polymarket.

Who do you think plays those games?

Not grannies voting for Harris that's for sure.

Women 65+ turning out for Harris in the Iowa poll have probably placed zero bets on that website. I'd WAGER it's 99% men.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:crazy how its changing so fast.... it was 67% of Trump on Friday...., Elon and the other people are not betting enough

Not on Predictit, which is the site the OP is referring to. Trump was at 52% on Predictit on Friday, and in the past 90 days the highest Trump has ever been is 57%. Predictit is not one of the free-for-all foreign scam sites that are being manipulated like Polymarket.