Nope, Vincent Gray's Not Arrogant At All

[Anonymous]

My comment was placed in the middle of your quote.

To be clear: None of these polls are scientific. If you think they are you are a fool. They are indicators at best.

And you are discounting the impact that Molten's support for Fenty is having on African Americans. It could well be enough to carry Ward 8, and cut into Ward 7. This is not a wish list. I am seeing the situation as it is, not how I'd like it to be.

Because right now, this race isn't where anyone wants it to be. It's very close. It's a toss-up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From what I saw, one of the major LGBTQ groups (I forget the name) gave their endorsement to Gray, which required a significant majority of their constituent group. I don't know how representative that is of the LGBTQ community at large or of the population in general, but it is worth noting.

It is true that Gray got that endorsement. But again, people are assuming that just because some gays conducted a poll, that poll was limited to gays. That is bigotry. The fact of the matter is that some gay people conducted a city-wide poll and published it in a gay newspaper. That doesn't make it a "gay poll", and it is bigoted to state so. Read the piece.

I read an article in the Blade and it seemed to imply that the poll was conducted amongst members of the group, which it implied to be all LGBTQ folks. I could be wrong, though. Do you have a link?

Also, I didn't characterize it as a "gay poll". I'm not even sure what "gay poll" is or why it would matter if it was all LGBTQ folks or not. If it was, than all it tells us is what that group thinks, which I noted can't be generalized to LGBTQ folks as a whole or the city as a whole, just what one group of people thought.

I already linked to it, above.

And anybody who really thinks that a poll showing Gray leading by 70% is scientific is crazy. 70% tells me that the poll is fraught with error. If you look at the Wards and the population of the Wards, that kind of lead is simply not possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:http://dcist.com/2010/06/dc_democratic_party_straw_poll_gray.php

Now, obviously, a straw poll is far from the final word. And there is still a lot of time for things to change. But it's hard to deny that Gray is in a very strong position when he holds a 4:1 lead over Fenty.

He doesn't. The fact that his lead is so strong only serves to cast severe doubt on the validity of the poll, even as an indicator. Look at the Wards and their populations. That kind of lead is simply not possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:22:52: FACT: The Democratic city wide poll that you cite occured on or about June 12.
Check the date on which it was reported. FACT: The Washington Blade city-wide poll occured on or about July 8. Check the date on which it was reported.

Now do the math. Which one is more recent?

You're free to argue that one is more valid. But please stop saying that the one you like is more recent, because it isn't. And please stop saying that the poll you don't like was conducted by a bunch of homosexuals and limited to a bunch of homosexuals, because it wasn't. Gays are just as capable of conducting city-wide polls as any other group of people. And they did.

And you know what? None of these polls are particularly scientific.

But the PP who contends that every single poll has Gray ahead is simply wrong, and that has been my overall point. When I showed her some recent Ward polls she didn't like, she tried to limit the debate to city-wide polls. Then she tried to take the most recent city-wide poll and cast it as a poll performed by gays and about gays. Then she blindly insisted that the city-wide poll she likes was more recent than the one she doesn't like.

Is she here to debate the facts, or distort them?

Actually, the Clarus poll, the Labor poll and the Washington Post polls are all scientific. Those are the only three scientific polls that have been conducted. None of the others are. Yet, when I raised those, you immediately discounted them as dated.

Then you started pointing to straw polls. When I pointed out that Ward 3 was won by Gray, you immediately discounted that because you didn't like the results, making up some shenanigans that no media outlet reported on. You keep bringing up the Ward 8 straw poll, the results of which several media outlets reported were questioned because of Fenty shenanigans. You ignore those facts.

You continue to completely ignore the city-wide straw poll that the Democratic party conducted, because you clearly don't like the fact that Gray won that big. That was a well-publicized event that both campaigns organized for -- Gray crushed Fenty. All you really have to hang your hat on is the Blade straw poll, which was conducted at a table at the Pride event, and was essentially limited to people that happened to pass by. Hardly a straw poll that is reflected by any other results anywhere else. Yet you ignore the Gertrude Stein citywide straw poll, which Gray also won. And you mention the Ward 1 poll (which was scientific) that had Fenty barely leading, which even the Washington Post states is problematic for him.

So who's distorting the facts? You can't just look at the results you like and ignore the rest.

The reason most political pundits, reporters, and analysts consider Gray leading right now is because they are looking at scientific polls, as those are the only ones that are considered accurate snapshots of the mood of the electorate. And all three of those that have been conducted and reported show Gray leading.

[Anonymous]

That's all just conjecture. The facts are what they are... the DC Democratic Party conducted a city-wide straw poll and found Gray to lead Fenty by 4:1. Now, this poll was conducted in June, so it's not the most recent. And it was a survey of less than 1000 people, described by the report as "the party's most involved members" so it's hard to know how representative the poll was.

However, that being said, if your position is that any poll that shows Gray with a large lead is inherently flawed because such a scenario is impossible, then you've drawn a conclusion prematurely and are only willing to consider facts that support it. That is simply unfair.

If you can point to legitimate issues with this poll that would make us think that Gray's lead is not what it seems, I'm all ears. But if you are simply going to dismiss any poll that disagrees with you, then there is no use talking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From what I saw, one of the major LGBTQ groups (I forget the name) gave their endorsement to Gray, which required a significant majority of their constituent group. I don't know how representative that is of the LGBTQ community at large or of the population in general, but it is worth noting.

It is true that Gray got that endorsement. But again, people are assuming that just because some gays conducted a poll, that poll was limited to gays. That is bigotry. The fact of the matter is that some gay people conducted a city-wide poll and published it in a gay newspaper. That doesn't make it a "gay poll", and it is bigoted to state so. Read the piece.

I read an article in the Blade and it seemed to imply that the poll was conducted amongst members of the group, which it implied to be all LGBTQ folks. I could be wrong, though. Do you have a link?

Also, I didn't characterize it as a "gay poll". I'm not even sure what "gay poll" is or why it would matter if it was all LGBTQ folks or not. If it was, than all it tells us is what that group thinks, which I noted can't be generalized to LGBTQ folks as a whole or the city as a whole, just what one group of people thought.

I already linked to it, above.

And anybody who really thinks that a poll showing Gray leading by 70% is scientific is crazy. 70% tells me that the poll is fraught with error. If you look at the Wards and the population of the Wards, that kind of lead is simply not possible.

Again, you show your lack of understanding. NO ONE said that the poll showing Gray leading by 70% is scientific. I've REPEATEDLY said it was a straw poll. Do you really not understand the difference between a straw poll and a scientific poll?
There have been only 3 scientific poll conducted in this race that have been reported by the media. All three of those scientific polls (Clarus, Washington Post, and the Labor poll) show Gray with a lead. That's a FACT.

[Anonymous]

"Fenty has struggled to win over many active members of the local Democratic State Committee since the national convention in Denver in 2008 when he missed the local delegation's breakfasts there. In one case, he was the guest speaker and a no-show."
From: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dc/2010/06/gray_bests_fenty_in_dc_democra.html

Now, this may demonstrate that the straw poll is particularly unrepresentative of the voting block. However, even if it is, isn't it reasonable to wonder why Fenty demonstrates such a lack of reliability? The voters may not care, and may come out to vote for him, but this, combined with his recent no shows at prominent debates, is definitely a cause for concern for this voter.

[Anonymous]

Most pundits, at least at this point, consider this race to be a toss up. This is an opinion I share. If you wish to believe that, as of today, Gray has a 70% lead, you are free to hold that opinion.
I do not think that you will find many (any?) objective people who will agree with you that Gray has a 70% lead.

And there's scientific, and there's scientific. Surely you are not claiming that these city polls are nearly as accurate as the ones conducted by major networks for Presidential polls. Or maybe you are.

And, despite the protestations of another poster, I do believe that a 70% lead for Gray, in and of itself, casts doubt on the legitimacy of that poll. Look at the populations of Wards 2 & 3 alone. Then tell me how Gray gets 70% of the city.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Most pundits, at least at this point, consider this race to be a toss up. This is an opinion I share. If you wish to believe that, as of today, Gray has a 70% lead, you are free to hold that opinion.
I do not think that you will find many (any?) objective people who will agree with you that Gray has a 70% lead.

And there's scientific, and there's scientific. Surely you are not claiming that these city polls are nearly as accurate as the ones conducted by major networks for Presidential polls. Or maybe you are.

And, despite the protestations of another poster, I do believe that a 70% lead for Gray, in and of itself, casts doubt on the legitimacy of that poll. Look at the populations of Wards 2 & 3 alone. Then tell me how Gray gets 70% of the city.

In short:

PP thinks Fenty will win. PP can't be wrong. Any evidence to the contrary must be inherently flawed.

There was nothing ILLEGITIMATE about the poll. It may be unrepresentative but to charge illegitimacy is to imply that there was a flaw in the poll itself. It certainly was a VALID poll; it may just not be the most representative one. But without EVIDENCE to the contrary, why should we dismiss the EVIDENCE we have in front of us. What EVIDENCE is there that this poll is unrepresentative or, worse, "illegitimate"?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"Fenty has struggled to win over many active members of the local Democratic State Committee since the national convention in Denver in 2008 when he missed the local delegation's breakfasts there. In one case, he was the guest speaker and a no-show."
From: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dc/2010/06/gray_bests_fenty_in_dc_democra.html

Now, this may demonstrate that the straw poll is particularly unrepresentative of the voting block. However, even if it is, isn't it reasonable to wonder why Fenty demonstrates such a lack of reliability? The voters may not care, and may come out to vote for him, but this, combined with his recent no shows at prominent debates, is definitely a cause for concern for this voter.

Frankly, it's apparent that you've decided who you will vote for. So this really isn't a "concern" for you any longer. It may have been a concern that caused you to make up your mind, but at this point your mind is made up.

Seems like you'd like something Fenty failed to do in 2008 to be a concern to other voters.

[Anonymous]

00:12: I concede your point. The poll was not illegitimate. It was unrepresentative. My evidence that it is unrepresentative consists of: 1. The populace of Wards 2 & 3, and 2. The predilictions of Wards 2 & 3.

And as I've stated, I do not think Fenty is going to win. I think it is a toss up at this point.

[Anonymous]

My mind is far from made up, but I do think it is important to consider facts. The fact is, Gray is currently leading in polls. Now, there is a lot to be made from that, and I'm not much of a front-runner, but I am curious to know why most polls seem to indicate he is a strong leader.

And, while there are many issues I consider, reliability is a big one. Even if I love a guy's platform, if I can't trust that he'll be available enough to make it happen, how strongly can I support him? If any other voters feel the way I do, then I think it's important information to share. If that doesn't bother you, disregard it.

And, even if I HAVE decided who I'll vote for, why is that a problem? Am I not allowed to decide that early? Or is that privilege only reserved for Fenty supporters?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:00:12: I concede your point. The poll was not illegitimate. It was unrepresentative. My evidence that it is unrepresentative consists of: 1. The populace of Wards 2 & 3, and 2. The predilictions of Wards 2 & 3.

And as I've stated, I do not think Fenty is going to win. I think it is a toss up at this point.

Please provide more information. What is the populace and predilections of Wards 2 and 3 that make you question how representative it is? Are there any other Wards that deserve similar scrutiny? If we do allow a certain adjustment for Wards 2 and 3, how much of one? And what does this do to the final tally?

It still seems like your pitting FACTS against FEELINGS.

[Anonymous]

Your mind is clearly made up. Stop pretending otherwise. And he's not the front runner. It's a dead heat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:00:12: I concede your point. The poll was not illegitimate. It was unrepresentative. My evidence that it is unrepresentative consists of: 1. The populace of Wards 2 & 3, and 2. The predilictions of Wards 2 & 3.

And as I've stated, I do not think Fenty is going to win. I think it is a toss up at this point.

Please provide more information. What is the populace and predilections of Wards 2 and 3 that make you question how representative it is? Are there any other Wards that deserve similar scrutiny? If we do allow a certain adjustment for Wards 2 and 3, how much of one? And what does this do to the final tally?

It still seems like your pitting FACTS against FEELINGS.

I'm not here to do your research for you. Look at a map of the Wards. Look at the size of each Ward. Learn what the population of those Wards is compared to others. As to predilictions -- well -- if you don't know, I can't help you.