Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia lost to smaller countries in the past - Japan, Finland, and Afghanistan.

But then, the US couldn't beat NKorea, lost to Vietnam and then lost to Russia's common enemy Afghanistan.

US never lost to NK. In fact that war never ended. We were pushed back by the Chinese. We had captured all of North Korea when the Chinese came in. Vietnam was no loss either. More of a draw. We were not there at the end and did not reinforce South Vietnam like we planned to do because that was the middle of Watergate. As for Afghanistan -- we sure lost that one but that was political. A decision was made to leave -- right or wrong -- had we wanted to we would still be there today propping up our puppet government.

Sounds like losses to me

You can view it how you like. Lots to discuss.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So much false info out there.

All Russian tanks are vulnerable to Molotov cocktails, if hit with enough of them. This renders Ukrainian cities off limits to tanks.

What army units are trained and authorized to use Molotov cocktails? NONE. They are purely a partisan weapon.

But that tells you something: EVERYONE left in Ukraine will fight.

Not only Ukrainians: foreign anti-Russian fighters are pouring into Ukraine by the hour. Experienced combat vets from all over.

So will they have weapons to fight with? No doubt.

Neutral Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states, Spain, and many other countries have supplied advanced, Western, weapons - including advanced Western anti-tank guided weapons like the Javalin system - which easily defeats any and all Russian armor.

There is an iron river flowing into Ukraine right now.

And what about the Ukrainians?

For years, every adult could legally own a “Hunting rifle.” In Ukraine, a hunting rifle is defined as an AK-47 assault rifle (a machinegun), a more advanced AK-74, or the domestically made M-16 copy. Only, Ukrainians train with their weapons every weekend. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians.

The fact that they have not left is ample evidence they will fight. And fight to the last man, woman, and teenager.

Ukraine is a meat-grinder for the Russian conscript army. It cannot be occupied.

That’s just not true.

Ukraine is 88th in world for private firearms ownership. There is essentially no gun culture in Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine couldn’t own a rifle without a very lengthy and expensive permit process, and are restricted to semiautomatic rifles that can only accept special low-capacity magazines.

If the Ukrainians were armed as well as a typical county in most southern US states, the Russians would’ve been sniped and bushwhacked into retreating within the first 24 hours.

How does a rifle stop a tank?

It doesn’t.

The rifle is for when the guy driving the tank opens the hatch and crawls out to stretch his legs, take a leak, take a dump, refuel it, clean the prism blocks, whatever - because you can’t stay in a tank forever. And when he does, the nearest guy with a rifle shoots him and his buddies. Then after they’ve been shot, you set the tank on fire so new guys can’t use it.


That’s how a rifle stops a tank. And why it’s so important to have a rifle in the hands of as many people as possible.


And Ukraine didn’t have that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So much false info out there.

All Russian tanks are vulnerable to Molotov cocktails, if hit with enough of them. This renders Ukrainian cities off limits to tanks.

What army units are trained and authorized to use Molotov cocktails? NONE. They are purely a partisan weapon.

But that tells you something: EVERYONE left in Ukraine will fight.

Not only Ukrainians: foreign anti-Russian fighters are pouring into Ukraine by the hour. Experienced combat vets from all over.

So will they have weapons to fight with? No doubt.

Neutral Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states, Spain, and many other countries have supplied advanced, Western, weapons - including advanced Western anti-tank guided weapons like the Javalin system - which easily defeats any and all Russian armor.

There is an iron river flowing into Ukraine right now.

And what about the Ukrainians?

For years, every adult could legally own a “Hunting rifle.” In Ukraine, a hunting rifle is defined as an AK-47 assault rifle (a machinegun), a more advanced AK-74, or the domestically made M-16 copy. Only, Ukrainians train with their weapons every weekend. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians.

The fact that they have not left is ample evidence they will fight. And fight to the last man, woman, and teenager.

Ukraine is a meat-grinder for the Russian conscript army. It cannot be occupied.

That’s just not true.

Ukraine is 88th in world for private firearms ownership. There is essentially no gun culture in Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine couldn’t own a rifle without a very lengthy and expensive permit process, and are restricted to semiautomatic rifles that can only accept special low-capacity magazines.

If the Ukrainians were armed as well as a typical county in most southern US states, the Russians would’ve been sniped and bushwhacked into retreating within the first 24 hours.

How does a rifle stop a tank?

It doesn’t.

The rifle is for when the guy driving the tank opens the hatch and crawls out to stretch his legs, take a leak, take a dump, refuel it, clean the prism blocks, whatever - because you can’t stay in a tank forever. And when he does, the nearest guy with a rifle shoots him and his buddies. Then after they’ve been shot, you set the tank on fire so new guys can’t use it.


That’s how a rifle stops a tank. And why it’s so important to have a rifle in the hands of as many people as possible. And Ukraine didn’t have that.

You are lying. What you wrote in bold is not true. But listen to PBS reporting if you do not believe me: (this is PRE INVASION reporting)

Those rifles - assault rifles - are NOT issued; they are individually owned. That is why they are such a mix of AK47s, AR15s, and AK-74s.

You also lied about “special low capacity magazines.” Also NOT TRUE. Yes- there is a process to own a “hunting rifle” - but it’s very brief and routine (like a background check here). Plus you can own silencers like the woman shown in the video has.

And to allege Ukrainians have “essentially no gun culture,” - when they have clearly been training every weekend for years now, by the hundreds of thousands?

Your statements are simply not true. PBS isn’t the only video out there; you can’t possibly be ignorant of them all.

Why are you so blatantly lying about this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The bigger lessons come from the recent 2021 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Drones now rule the battlefield.

What hasn’t Ukraine used drones on that convoy outside Kyiv?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The bigger lessons come from the recent 2021 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Drones now rule the battlefield.

What hasn’t Ukraine used drones on that convoy outside Kyiv?

That column outside Kyiv has largely been stuck for lack of logistics. They are using the drones on the Russian fuel trains and on the columns that didn't run out of fuel.

[Anonymous]

They need more drones. Those Turkish drones are pretty amazing.

I hope we have a bunch of American drones en route, plus all the artillery to keep refilling. American drones can drop bigger and multiple payloads.

[Anonymous]

Can Ukraine hit a Russian city with something? Do they have something that can hit Rostov?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So much false info out there.

All Russian tanks are vulnerable to Molotov cocktails, if hit with enough of them. This renders Ukrainian cities off limits to tanks.

What army units are trained and authorized to use Molotov cocktails? NONE. They are purely a partisan weapon.

But that tells you something: EVERYONE left in Ukraine will fight.

Not only Ukrainians: foreign anti-Russian fighters are pouring into Ukraine by the hour. Experienced combat vets from all over.

So will they have weapons to fight with? No doubt.

Neutral Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states, Spain, and many other countries have supplied advanced, Western, weapons - including advanced Western anti-tank guided weapons like the Javalin system - which easily defeats any and all Russian armor.

There is an iron river flowing into Ukraine right now.

And what about the Ukrainians?

For years, every adult could legally own a “Hunting rifle.” In Ukraine, a hunting rifle is defined as an AK-47 assault rifle (a machinegun), a more advanced AK-74, or the domestically made M-16 copy. Only, Ukrainians train with their weapons every weekend. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians.

The fact that they have not left is ample evidence they will fight. And fight to the last man, woman, and teenager.

Ukraine is a meat-grinder for the Russian conscript army. It cannot be occupied.

That’s just not true.

Ukraine is 88th in world for private firearms ownership. There is essentially no gun culture in Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine couldn’t own a rifle without a very lengthy and expensive permit process, and are restricted to semiautomatic rifles that can only accept special low-capacity magazines.

If the Ukrainians were armed as well as a typical county in most southern US states, the Russians would’ve been sniped and bushwhacked into retreating within the first 24 hours.

How does a rifle stop a tank?

It doesn’t.

The rifle is for when the guy driving the tank opens the hatch and crawls out to stretch his legs, take a leak, take a dump, refuel it, clean the prism blocks, whatever - because you can’t stay in a tank forever. And when he does, the nearest guy with a rifle shoots him and his buddies. Then after they’ve been shot, you set the tank on fire so new guys can’t use it.


That’s how a rifle stops a tank. And why it’s so important to have a rifle in the hands of as many people as possible.


And Ukraine didn’t have that.

What is true is that Ukraine cannot be successfully occupied. There will be an overt Western-backed insurgency. It will be harder to get weapons and supplies into Ukraine in the coming days/weeks, but I am sure there are plans already in place to keep supplies flowing. Will they flow all the way to the east of Ukraine? Probably not, but who knows.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So much false info out there.

All Russian tanks are vulnerable to Molotov cocktails, if hit with enough of them. This renders Ukrainian cities off limits to tanks.

What army units are trained and authorized to use Molotov cocktails? NONE. They are purely a partisan weapon.

But that tells you something: EVERYONE left in Ukraine will fight.

Not only Ukrainians: foreign anti-Russian fighters are pouring into Ukraine by the hour. Experienced combat vets from all over.

So will they have weapons to fight with? No doubt.

Neutral Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states, Spain, and many other countries have supplied advanced, Western, weapons - including advanced Western anti-tank guided weapons like the Javalin system - which easily defeats any and all Russian armor.

There is an iron river flowing into Ukraine right now.

And what about the Ukrainians?

For years, every adult could legally own a “Hunting rifle.” In Ukraine, a hunting rifle is defined as an AK-47 assault rifle (a machinegun), a more advanced AK-74, or the domestically made M-16 copy. Only, Ukrainians train with their weapons every weekend. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians.

The fact that they have not left is ample evidence they will fight. And fight to the last man, woman, and teenager.

Ukraine is a meat-grinder for the Russian conscript army. It cannot be occupied.

That’s just not true.

Ukraine is 88th in world for private firearms ownership. There is essentially no gun culture in Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine couldn’t own a rifle without a very lengthy and expensive permit process, and are restricted to semiautomatic rifles that can only accept special low-capacity magazines.

If the Ukrainians were armed as well as a typical county in most southern US states, the Russians would’ve been sniped and bushwhacked into retreating within the first 24 hours.

How does a rifle stop a tank?

It doesn’t.

The rifle is for when the guy driving the tank opens the hatch and crawls out to stretch his legs, take a leak, take a dump, refuel it, clean the prism blocks, whatever - because you can’t stay in a tank forever. And when he does, the nearest guy with a rifle shoots him and his buddies. Then after they’ve been shot, you set the tank on fire so new guys can’t use it.


That’s how a rifle stops a tank. And why it’s so important to have a rifle in the hands of as many people as possible.


And Ukraine didn’t have that.

Pure fantasy. This isn’t Hollywood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So much false info out there.

All Russian tanks are vulnerable to Molotov cocktails, if hit with enough of them. This renders Ukrainian cities off limits to tanks.

What army units are trained and authorized to use Molotov cocktails? NONE. They are purely a partisan weapon.

But that tells you something: EVERYONE left in Ukraine will fight.

Not only Ukrainians: foreign anti-Russian fighters are pouring into Ukraine by the hour. Experienced combat vets from all over.

So will they have weapons to fight with? No doubt.

Neutral Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states, Spain, and many other countries have supplied advanced, Western, weapons - including advanced Western anti-tank guided weapons like the Javalin system - which easily defeats any and all Russian armor.

There is an iron river flowing into Ukraine right now.

And what about the Ukrainians?

For years, every adult could legally own a “Hunting rifle.” In Ukraine, a hunting rifle is defined as an AK-47 assault rifle (a machinegun), a more advanced AK-74, or the domestically made M-16 copy. Only, Ukrainians train with their weapons every weekend. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians.

The fact that they have not left is ample evidence they will fight. And fight to the last man, woman, and teenager.

Ukraine is a meat-grinder for the Russian conscript army. It cannot be occupied.

That’s just not true.

Ukraine is 88th in world for private firearms ownership. There is essentially no gun culture in Ukraine. Citizens of Ukraine couldn’t own a rifle without a very lengthy and expensive permit process, and are restricted to semiautomatic rifles that can only accept special low-capacity magazines.

If the Ukrainians were armed as well as a typical county in most southern US states, the Russians would’ve been sniped and bushwhacked into retreating within the first 24 hours.

How does a rifle stop a tank?

It doesn’t.

The rifle is for when the guy driving the tank opens the hatch and crawls out to stretch his legs, take a leak, take a dump, refuel it, clean the prism blocks, whatever - because you can’t stay in a tank forever. And when he does, the nearest guy with a rifle shoots him and his buddies. Then after they’ve been shot, you set the tank on fire so new guys can’t use it.


That’s how a rifle stops a tank. And why it’s so important to have a rifle in the hands of as many people as possible. And Ukraine didn’t have that.

You are lying. What you wrote in bold is not true. But listen to PBS reporting if you do not believe me: (this is PRE INVASION reporting)

Those rifles - assault rifles - are NOT issued; they are individually owned. That is why they are such a mix of AK47s, AR15s, and AK-74s.

You also lied about “special low capacity magazines.” Also NOT TRUE. Yes- there is a process to own a “hunting rifle” - but it’s very brief and routine (like a background check here). Plus you can own silencers like the woman shown in the video has.

And to allege Ukrainians have “essentially no gun culture,” - when they have clearly been training every weekend for years now, by the hundreds of thousands?

Your statements are simply not true. PBS isn’t the only video out there; you can’t possibly be ignorant of them all.

Why are you so blatantly lying about this?

Plus the Ukraine has 500,000 reservists and 200,000 regulars. That 700,000 trained and equipped. There are most likely 8-10 million volunteers who need to be outfitted and trained.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Too much corruption. It's kleptocracy and the elites skimmed too much of the fuel and food budget. Now their vehicles and armor have to be abandoned when they run out of gas and the lucky conscripts are given MRE's that expired in 2015. The unlucky ones get nothing. It's been a complete self-inflicted failure and humiliation.

Is this just conjecture? How do do you know this? Are you Russian? Do you have a Russian soldier in Ukraine who's eating expired MREs? Link?

Many of the Russian soldiers are in mismatched uniforms. They couldn't even properly clothe them. The kleptocracy is real.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Russians have lost about 5,000 and the heavy fighting has not started. Ukraine has about 200k regular plus 500k reserves. I imagine they will push this number to 2-3 million by the end of the month.

The 150k the Russians have sent in are not all combat units. Once it’s kicks off the Russians will not have a safe place anywhere in the country- IED, suicide bombings, snipers, etc.

Wrong. Not even close

Ukraine says 6,000, Western analysts put the number at 5,800. So maybe by "not even close" you meant "it's way more than 5,000." The Belorussian hospitals near the border are full of wounded Russian soldiers. There are crematorium trucks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meh.....they sent in a bunch of teenagers and early 20s somethings (kids) conscripts with crappy supplies and weapons to serves as fresh meat to be turned into ground beef. They were used to soften up the Ukraine. Russia's advanced weaponry and elite divisions till haven't really been deployed yet. People shouldn't get confident at all that Russia has been 'struggling'. They are just getting warmed up, so I wouldn't extract a whole lot from the first week of combat.

So they sent in their 3rd string bench warmers just to confused the US military and intelligence officers?

Makes a lot of sense.

Russia does not wants to limit the loss of their most advanced equipment and heavy armor. Force the Ukrainians to use up all of their anti-tank weapons, stingers, etc. on junk equipment operated by a bunch of kids forced to enlist. Ukraine will be out of ammo soon. Molotov cocktails don't work against fearsome T90s. And who knows if they start field the T14. It's a beast.

The supply of weapons to Ukraine is only increasing. They're not being used up. U.S. delivered hundreds of Stingers on Monday.

[Anonymous]

Their logistics and maintenance are terrible, which means their officers also are terrible.

[Anonymous]

Hertling was on this from the beginning. Poor training, poor logistics, poor morale, poor officer corps: