Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Flu killed 80 000 people last year. That is about 7000 people a month.
Coronavirus killed what...2700 in two months ... that is 1350 cases per month... SO FAR! and it had ideal breeding grounds, not doing as impressive out of China. So you say it is more deadly then the flu. I say no, based on your fave numbers.

Well, I am worried about the flu as well! It can be deadly!

However, a general estimate of seasonal flu fatality is about 0.1% of those it infects.

It seems that COVID is at a minimum more like a 1% CFR and if so that is ten times as severe as seasonal flu.

You cannot count total numbers killed as of today, because the epidemic is still spreading.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Where are you getting the numbers for # of needed ICU beds, etc?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/professionals/hhspandemicinfluenzaplan.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do wish the other countries were reporting numbers in a more comphrensible way—eg, X known exposures, Y infected, Z requiring hospitalization (including agr spread); A requiring vent, B dead. We’re getting to the point that we are starting to have comprehensible numbers outside of china.

If we use the numbers floated of 20% infected and 2% fatality for those infected, that would be 3 deaths just at my kid’s elementary school. I can’t imagine how awful.

Why would it stop at 20% infected? No one has had this virus before. It would be at least 60% infected.

But kids aren't dying of this, so it would probably be 0 kids who died. So there's that!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Can you please point out statistics this year of pneumonia cases compared to last year? Hospitals overflowing with patients? Really?

I definitely expect to see hospitals in the US overflowing with patients with severe pneumonia within another 4-6 weeks. Yes, I do. And clearly the CDC does as well.. unless mitigation measures are taken.

No, it isn't happening yet.

I don't really know what more to say to you. This is what happens with a pandemic. It isn't a problem... until it is . But the thing is, the only time you can prevent a problem from happening is BEFORE it becomes obvious that there is a problem.

If you wait until it actually *is* a problem... it is too late to mitigate.

If you don't understand this, I don't know how to help you any more than that.

Why in 4-6 weeks? Why are the colleges not dealing with it now? Do you know how many Chinese students are in the US that went home for the holidays and came back over 4 weeks ago? You keep saying "it hasn't happened yet" but can't explain why.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CDC just issued policies including school tele-learning, telework focus, cancelling large gathering.

Better get your TP asap (though if the water is off, not sure how great that is?)

These are POSSIBLE recommendations IF we had a pandemic. Jesus, you guys have a hard time separating actual news from hypotheticals.

Please stop thinking it is a hypothetical. There WILL BE outbreaks in the United States, people WILL BE quarantined, and there WILL BE cancelations of school and social gatherings. It's just a question of when.

Other countries (except maybe Iran) are doing what they can to slow the spread of the disease, to give everyone time to prepare and to give scientists and medical professionals time to create a vaccine and treatments. The WHO doctor that just returned from China is calling for a Manhattan Project type of collaboration among scientists. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1232323122654826497.html

Everyone personally should be using this time to prepare themselves and their families - both materially and psychologically - for something they've never seen before. A complete disruption of our lives. Think the worst snowstorm to ever hit Washington - a foot of snow falling every day for a month - prepare for that. Maybe it won't happen here, but just be prepared.

The US colleges had a huge return of Chinese students studying in the US in the month of January, right in the middle of the worst of this. Can you explain why there are virtually NO cases in US colleges?

If you don't test for cases, cases do not exist.

Or I guess you could say that once again God has shown that the US is the favored nation.

The hospitals should be full of sick people needing O2 and/or vents regardless of testing.

Who need O2? Elderly? How many of those on campus?

Again, where is the epidemic?

If it’s mild for most people is it still an “epidemic”?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Korea now has over 1000 cases.

Latest numbers in put them at 1,146 cases, 11 dead.

So 0.95% death rate. Less than the flu. The nutter who likes to obsess with numbers can use that until we get a better sample.

Seasonal flu has a 0.1% fatality rate, so isn't this 9x more severe than seasonal flu?

Panic super spreader strikes yet again! Hey, you will keep scaring us at this rate you can give yourself panic attack andbe the first person here needing a ventilator

It is not spreading panic to give the facts we know about fatality rates of flu vs. COVID-19.

It is not a service to say this is just like the flu because should an outbreak come here there will be widespread noncompliance with authorities' instructions. Why should the public suspend their social groups, church meetings, concerts etc for just the flu?

To give facts can be or not panic spreading depending on context. Posting here the same data over and over and over again with intent to intimidate, while we get it, it is serious, we are preparing. Your data is inconclusive since nobody has verified nothing. What is the purpose to ponder how many times it is more serious then flu since we dont know yet for sure. Do you?
You like facts and numbers, here are some facts and numbers fot you...

Flu killed 80 000 people last year. That is about 7000 people a month.
Coronavirus killed what...2700 in two months ... that is 1350 cases per month... SO FAR! and it had ideal breeding grounds, not doing as impressive out of China. So you say it is more deadly then the flu. I say no, based on your fave numbers.

I am the PP right above and should have started with DP because I did not write the first post at the top.

But I do not believe the first post was intended "to intimidate." It was meant to correct facts. Just today, DHS Secretary Chad Wolf told the Senate that the fatality rate for flu was around that for COVID-19. The clip is on the political forum.

it is dangerous to have officials who do not understand the differences between flu and COVID-19, and it's dangerous for the public to be similarly ignorant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Korea now has over 1000 cases.

Latest numbers in put them at 1,146 cases, 11 dead.

So 0.95% death rate. Less than the flu. The nutter who likes to obsess with numbers can use that until we get a better sample.

Seasonal flu has a 0.1% fatality rate, so isn't this 9x more severe than seasonal flu?

Panic super spreader strikes yet again! Hey, you will keep scaring us at this rate you can give yourself panic attack andbe the first person here needing a ventilator

It is not spreading panic to give the facts we know about fatality rates of flu vs. COVID-19.

It is not a service to say this is just like the flu because should an outbreak come here there will be widespread noncompliance with authorities' instructions. Why should the public suspend their social groups, church meetings, concerts etc for just the flu?

What “facts”? Numbers from China?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Flu killed 80 000 people last year. That is about 7000 people a month.
Coronavirus killed what...2700 in two months ... that is 1350 cases per month... SO FAR! and it had ideal breeding grounds, not doing as impressive out of China. So you say it is more deadly then the flu. I say no, based on your fave numbers.

Well, I am worried about the flu as well! It can be deadly!

However, a general estimate of seasonal flu fatality is about 0.1% of those it infects.

It seems that COVID is at a minimum more like a 1% CFR and if so that is ten times as severe as seasonal flu.

You cannot count total numbers killed as of today, because the epidemic is still spreading.

Citation from reputable source?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Where are you getting the numbers for # of needed ICU beds, etc?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/professionals/hhspandemicinfluenzaplan.pdf

Which page?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is anyone else concerned about sending the kids to summer camp?

Way too early to predict or worry.

[Anonymous]

Has anyone’s kid’s school sent home their “plan”?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Flu killed 80 000 people last year. That is about 7000 people a month.
Coronavirus killed what...2700 in two months ... that is 1350 cases per month... SO FAR! and it had ideal breeding grounds, not doing as impressive out of China. So you say it is more deadly then the flu. I say no, based on your fave numbers.

Well, I am worried about the flu as well! It can be deadly!

However, a general estimate of seasonal flu fatality is about 0.1% of those it infects.

It seems that COVID is at a minimum more like a 1% CFR and if so that is ten times as severe as seasonal flu.

You cannot count total numbers killed as of today, because the epidemic is still spreading.

Citation from reputable source?

From JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Bear in mind the only data we have at the moment is from China. It is not clear, however, what incentive they would have to overestimate the death rate.

We are getting in very good data from South Korea, but their current rate of 1 death to 100 cases is still too fresh because they are only one week into the surge. For the severely and critically ill the second and third weeks are the real test for surviving or not. This many deaths so early on in the outbreak may not be encouraging.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do wish the other countries were reporting numbers in a more comphrensible way—eg, X known exposures, Y infected, Z requiring hospitalization (including agr spread); A requiring vent, B dead. We’re getting to the point that we are starting to have comprehensible numbers outside of china.

If we use the numbers floated of 20% infected and 2% fatality for those infected, that would be 3 deaths just at my kid’s elementary school. I can’t imagine how awful.

Kids death rate is almost nonexistent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I do wish the other countries were reporting numbers in a more comphrensible way—eg, X known exposures, Y infected, Z requiring hospitalization (including agr spread); A requiring vent, B dead. We’re getting to the point that we are starting to have comprehensible numbers outside of china.

If we use the numbers floated of 20% infected and 2% fatality for those infected, that would be 3 deaths just at my kid’s elementary school. I can’t imagine how awful.

Kids death rate is almost nonexistent.

There is no reason to believe we will have 20% infected with reasonable containment measures--this would be an unusually high, possibly outlandishly high, infection rate.

Two percent fatality rate is across all age groups and much higher for those over 60 or 70. There have been very few cases of child deaths.

Children are excellent spreaders, however, and their spreading isn't limited to their peer group. Hence, the closing of schools in many jurisdictions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CDC just issued policies including school tele-learning, telework focus, cancelling large gathering.

Better get your TP asap (though if the water is off, not sure how great that is?)

These are POSSIBLE recommendations IF we had a pandemic. Jesus, you guys have a hard time separating actual news from hypotheticals.

Please stop thinking it is a hypothetical. There WILL BE outbreaks in the United States, people WILL BE quarantined, and there WILL BE cancelations of school and social gatherings. It's just a question of when.

Other countries (except maybe Iran) are doing what they can to slow the spread of the disease, to give everyone time to prepare and to give scientists and medical professionals time to create a vaccine and treatments. The WHO doctor that just returned from China is calling for a Manhattan Project type of collaboration among scientists. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1232323122654826497.html

Everyone personally should be using this time to prepare themselves and their families - both materially and psychologically - for something they've never seen before. A complete disruption of our lives. Think the worst snowstorm to ever hit Washington - a foot of snow falling every day for a month - prepare for that. Maybe it won't happen here, but just be prepared.

The US colleges had a huge return of Chinese students studying in the US in the month of January, right in the middle of the worst of this. Can you explain why there are virtually NO cases in US colleges?

If you don't test for cases, cases do not exist.

Or I guess you could say that once again God has shown that the US is the favored nation.

The hospitals should be full of sick people needing O2 and/or vents regardless of testing.

Who need O2? Elderly? How many of those on campus?

Again, where is the epidemic?

If it’s mild for most people is it still an “epidemic”?

You mean like common cold or skinny jeans? If people are not dying. Frim it here we should still panick to please you.