Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
There is no reason to believe we will have 20% infected with reasonable containment measures--this would be an unusually high, possibly outlandishly high, infection rate.

Two percent fatality rate is across all age groups and much higher for those over 60 or 70. There have been very few cases of child deaths.

Children are excellent spreaders, however, and their spreading isn't limited to their peer group. Hence, the closing of schools in many jurisdictions.

https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1232412654553034752

R0 2-6.6 (flu 1)
CFR 0.3-2.2% (flu 0.1%)
Severe cases 15-20%
Attack rate 30-70%
Incubation 0-14 days
Time to vaccine 1yr+
Antivirals in clinical trials.
Mortality higher in 60+, males, comorbidities

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

From JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

This says fatality rate of 2.3% overall.

If seasonal flu is 0.1% then this disease would be 23 times more severe than seasonal flu? Is my math correct?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

From JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

This says fatality rate of 2.3% overall.

If seasonal flu is 0.1% then this disease would be 23 times more severe than seasonal flu? Is my math correct?

It would be 23 times more deadly. Severity is somewhat different--20% of COVID-19 cases are severe, that is, requiring hospitalization. We would have to know the hospitalization rates for flu to make a comparison for that. (I couldn't find readily from a quick search.)

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:CDC just issued policies including school tele-learning, telework focus, cancelling large gathering.

Better get your TP asap (though if the water is off, not sure how great that is?)

These are POSSIBLE recommendations IF we had a pandemic. Jesus, you guys have a hard time separating actual news from hypotheticals.

Please stop thinking it is a hypothetical. There WILL BE outbreaks in the United States, people WILL BE quarantined, and there WILL BE cancelations of school and social gatherings. It's just a question of when.

Other countries (except maybe Iran) are doing what they can to slow the spread of the disease, to give everyone time to prepare and to give scientists and medical professionals time to create a vaccine and treatments. The WHO doctor that just returned from China is calling for a Manhattan Project type of collaboration among scientists. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1232323122654826497.html

Everyone personally should be using this time to prepare themselves and their families - both materially and psychologically - for something they've never seen before. A complete disruption of our lives. Think the worst snowstorm to ever hit Washington - a foot of snow falling every day for a month - prepare for that. Maybe it won't happen here, but just be prepared.

The US colleges had a huge return of Chinese students studying in the US in the month of January, right in the middle of the worst of this. Can you explain why there are virtually NO cases in US colleges?

If you don't test for cases, cases do not exist.

Or I guess you could say that once again God has shown that the US is the favored nation.

The hospitals should be full of sick people needing O2 and/or vents regardless of testing.

Who need O2? Elderly? How many of those on campus?

Again, where is the epidemic?

If it’s mild for most people is it still an “epidemic”?

You mean like common cold or skinny jeans? If people are not dying. Frim it here we should still panick to please you.

When one of my kids was little he would sometimes get bad croup with colds - his airway was restricted to the point where I had to call 911 and he needed emergency intervention.

The colds that compromised my son's breathing were just colds to the vast majority of kids in his preschool. It was a scary thing but thankfully my son outgrew it and now just gets a cold like everyone else.

My point is, that it's possible for a virus to be a big problem for one person and no big deal to another. Coronavirus strikes me as that kind of virus. Some people will be walking around with mild cold symptoms going about their day and small percentage will need to be hospitalized from it.

[Anonymous]

Yes and feeling like you can’t breathe is terrifying. If you can’t breathe it is life-threatening. A-B-C
Airway #1

[Anonymous]

Per NBC Iranian death rate is sadly much higher then other countries. Why? We will never know for sure. However we should get used to different death rates in different countries. I would say until enough cases per country one should NOT speculate death rate is such and such across the board for every country because clear differences start to emerge. Spread may or may not be similar either but death rate definitely depends on many different factors.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-iran-s-reported-mortality-rate-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646

[Anonymous]

A 23-year-old US soldier in South Korea has tested positive for coronavirus. He's in self-quarantine in his off-base residence.

https://www.usfk.mil/Media/News/Article/2094200/usfk-service-member-confirmed-with-covid-19/

[Anonymous]

oh this is just cute.. so not wearing masks is bad there but recommended here?
Maybe we are just superhumans who just like Achilles have only one weak spot..hands.. we gotta wash them and then we are protected. Masks are for sissies.



Amid a shortage of surgical masks and hand sanitizer in Iranian shops, public health experts say Iran could become the hub of a major outbreak across the Middle East.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-iran-s-reported-mortality-rate-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:oh this is just cute.. so not wearing masks is bad there but recommended here?
Maybe we are just superhumans who just like Achilles have only one weak spot..hands.. we gotta wash them and then we are protected. Masks are for sissies.



Amid a shortage of surgical masks and hand sanitizer in Iranian shops, public health experts say Iran could become the hub of a major outbreak across the Middle East.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-iran-s-reported-mortality-rate-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646

We need those expert to come here and see if we need to use them masks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A 23-year-old US soldier in South Korea has tested positive for coronavirus. He's in self-quarantine in his off-base residence.

https://www.usfk.mil/Media/News/Article/2094200/usfk-service-member-confirmed-with-covid-19/

He will have stories to tell his grand kids. I wish him to stay healthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I do wish the other countries were reporting numbers in a more comphrensible way—eg, X known exposures, Y infected, Z requiring hospitalization (including agr spread); A requiring vent, B dead. We’re getting to the point that we are starting to have comprehensible numbers outside of china.

If we use the numbers floated of 20% infected and 2% fatality for those infected, that would be 3 deaths just at my kid’s elementary school. I can’t imagine how awful.

Too early for them to report meaningful numbers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The doctors that died in China were YOUNG.

You keep forgetting........

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

From JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

This says fatality rate of 2.3% overall.

If seasonal flu is 0.1% then this disease would be 23 times more severe than seasonal flu? Is my math correct?

It would be 23 times more deadly. Severity is somewhat different--20% of COVID-19 cases are severe, that is, requiring hospitalization. We would have to know the hospitalization rates for flu to make a comparison for that. (I couldn't find readily from a quick search.)

I have that -- I posted it a long time ago on this thread actually.

https://academic.oup.com/ofid/article/6/7/ofz225/5510081

It shows hospitalization rates for flu for different age groups (all over age 65). It shows pneumonia rates and in hospital death rates as well. I'd like to point out that while we say that seasonal flu is deadly for the elderly, these rates don't look nearly as high as the same rates do for coronavirus for similar age groups. I don't see anything in this report about rates of needing mechanical ventilation.

In-hospital death or transfer to hospice occurred in 225 (3.8%) patients aged 65–74 years, 370 (5.3%) patients aged 75–84 years, and 588 (8.7%) patients aged ?85 years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Per NBC Iranian death rate is sadly much higher then other countries. Why? We will never know for sure. However we should get used to different death rates in different countries. I would say until enough cases per country one should NOT speculate death rate is such and such across the board for every country because clear differences start to emerge. Spread may or may not be similar either but death rate definitely depends on many different factors.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-iran-s-reported-mortality-rate-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646

Good point. Fatality rates will be much higher the lower the quality and the more overwhelmed an area's medical system is. However, given the very high number of cases and deaths from China, it is probably inevitable their numbers will become the benchmark that other countries' death rates will be compared to.

I would say that spread number may not be that different but spread rates could vary considerably depending on what containment measures a country takes. Slowing the rate of spread is desirable because a country can then space out the numbers of people needing acute medical care, which in turn lowers death rates.

The death rate from Iran's sketchy numbers is very high, Sadly, many mistakes have been made there that have fostered spread from Qom to all of Iran and to a number of other Middle Eastern countries.

Dr. John Campbell, who has become a cult youtube favorite on the epidemic from its beginning for his calm, insightful, and stalwart analysis, has it on good authority that Iran did not announce its first death for six days. So containment measures were very delayed and Iran's fragile health system has been totally overwhelmed.

[Anonymous]

Did everyone missed this?... sounds like big deal and good news.

While we were sleeping...

Novel coronavirus contained in Australia: health minister

“At the moment in Australia we have had no evidence whatsoever of community transmission,”

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/australian-cruise-ship-evacuees-contract-coronavirus/news-story/a0fba670c5ef992e0ea161ad81b20533

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/23/c_138810641.htm