Wuhan virus (coronavirus) arrives in the USA

[Anonymous]

Cases in Germany:

Erkelenz

https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/erste-corona-infektion-nrw100.html

50 year old man from Erkelenz, in North Rhein Westfallia is in critical condition. He is confirmed to have COVID19; wife also has symptoms.

According to the district administrator, the couple are in their early 50s and travel a lot for professional reasons. The health department is currently intensively investigating all possible contact persons. According to WDR information, the man was said to have had a meal recently with a business partner, who in turn was said to have had contact with a man from China.

Daycare centers and schools remain closed
As a precautionary measure, daycare centers and schools in the Heinsberg district are initially closed on Wednesday. The municipal administrations should not open either. The district has set up a crisis team. A crisis team at the state level is to be formed on Wednesday. He meets in Düsseldorf from 9 a.m.

Baden-Wurtenburg

The patient is a 25-year-old man from the Göppingen district who was probably infected during a trip to Italy in Milan. The person fell ill with flu-like symptoms after their return and then contacted the local health department. A test was carried out for corona viruses. After the positive result, the patient should be admitted to a clinic this evening and be housed and treated in isolation from the other patients.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This disease is only two months old, of course the hospitals aren't filling up. I'm guessing Wuhan has had this virus for closer to 4 months and their hospitals did fill up. It will take some time for this virus to get entrenched.

Anyway, since we aren't testing, we have absolutely no idea if our hospitalized pneumonia patients have COVID-19 or not

Yrt if it were here and as. Bad as some would like it to be you surely would see hospitals overflown with sudden wave of mass pneumonia cases. SUDDEN WAVE. And nothing.

No, not yet. With no mitigration at all (no travel restrictions and no testing) it'd be probably another 4-6 weeks in a country as big as the US before we'd have hospitals overflowing with patients.

What we should be seeing right now is a few cases of pneumonia some severe and some deaths. If we weren't looking out for it, we'd just think it was a bad flu season. That's what's going on in Europe right now. They only know it is COVID because they started testing for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I remember when showing up with a case of a Corona was the sign of a good time.

I needed this moment of levity while going through this thread, thank you.

Can you imagine being on the Corona marketing team right now?

My boyfriend keeps insisting that Corona simply must be the vaccine for Coronavirus.

God help you.

[Anonymous]

San Fran declares state of emergency:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-san-francisco-state-of-emergency-us-cases-latest-a9359441.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1OVeFj0Qy2i-gU9VtLSeQOi2OyJ-_HeyV-x3EYN0sXP37A1vGh6p3gOKc#Echobox=1582672145

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This disease is only two months old, of course the hospitals aren't filling up. I'm guessing Wuhan has had this virus for closer to 4 months and their hospitals did fill up. It will take some time for this virus to get entrenched.

Anyway, since we aren't testing, we have absolutely no idea if our hospitalized pneumonia patients have COVID-19 or not

Yrt if it were here and as. Bad as some would like it to be you surely would see hospitals overflown with sudden wave of mass pneumonia cases. SUDDEN WAVE. And nothing.

No, not yet. With no mitigration at all (no travel restrictions and no testing) it'd be probably another 4-6 weeks in a country as big as the US before we'd have hospitals overflowing with patients.

What we should be seeing right now is a few cases of pneumonia some severe and some deaths. If we weren't looking out for it, we'd just think it was a bad flu season. That's what's going on in Europe right now. They only know it is COVID because they started testing for it.

You do realize that in the worse of the worse affected place, Wuhan city, population 11 Million people iHubei province population 59Million...
NOT EVERYONE GOT SICK OR DIED!!!

You do realize that No other province in China has anywhere near the amount of cases. Most have few, some hundredth cases and few 1000 or so.

Why people look at worse case scenario if even most of China is not heaving it.

Most other china pr

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, I have elderly parents. Both are not in good health. The flu, a bad cold, etc, could easily be the thing that kills either one of them. I don't see this as different from coronavirus.

And your point is? Just let everyone get it and Darwin will sort them out?

At this point, the virus is not containable. As in, it's out there already just like the flu, strep and cold viruses are out there already.

If you want zero chance of not contracting this then you are going to have to do an immediate self quarantine and hope to God that you have not already been exposed to it. Otherwise, you go on with your life and the odds are very good that you will be just fine whether you get this virus or not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:San Fran declares state of emergency:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-san-francisco-state-of-emergency-us-cases-latest-a9359441.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1OVeFj0Qy2i-gU9VtLSeQOi2OyJ-_HeyV-x3EYN0sXP37A1vGh6p3gOKc#Echobox=1582672145

Interesting conclusion for SF... who let people live and die on their streets, can not see those cases. Must be too close.

There have been not yet been any reported cases of coronavirus in San Francisco. But there have been over 80, 200 confirmed cases — the majority of those in China — worldwide,

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, I have elderly parents. Both are not in good health. The flu, a bad cold, etc, could easily be the thing that kills either one of them. I don't see this as different from coronavirus.

And your point is? Just let everyone get it and Darwin will sort them out?

At this point, the virus is not containable. As in, it's out there already just like the flu, strep and cold viruses are out there already.

If you want zero chance of not contracting this then you are going to have to do an immediate self quarantine and hope to God that you have not already been exposed to it. Otherwise, you go on with your life and the odds are very good that you will be just fine whether you get this virus or not.

Exactly. Unless you can quarantine yourself indefinitely you’ll probably be exposed. And most likely everything will be fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, I have elderly parents. Both are not in good health. The flu, a bad cold, etc, could easily be the thing that kills either one of them. I don't see this as different from coronavirus.

And your point is? Just let everyone get it and Darwin will sort them out?

At this point, the virus is not containable. As in, it's out there already just like the flu, strep and cold viruses are out there already.

If you want zero chance of not contracting this then you are going to have to do an immediate self quarantine and hope to God that you have not already been exposed to it. Otherwise, you go on with your life and the odds are very good that you will be just fine whether you get this virus or not.

First, this isn't like the flu or strep - there are no treatments or vaccines and NO ONE has immunity to it.
Second, 15% of the cases are serious, requiring some medical care, and 5% are critical, requiring a ventilator. About 2% are fatal.
So let's extrapolate those numbers to Washington DC, assuming only adults get the virus.
So there's about 550,000 adults in DC.
Let's say 1/5 get the virus - that's 110,000.
We can round that down to 100,000
So then if the virus is just allowed to make its way through the city, with no quarantines, etc, that would lead to
15,000 requiring supportive medical care and 5,000 requiring an ICU bed (most with a ventilator, I assume)
And about 2,000 would die.
See the problem?

[Anonymous]

The goal is to slow virus until vaccine developed or maybe ramp up ventilators.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The goal is to slow virus until vaccine developed or maybe ramp up ventilators.

Also, antiviral treatment and to flatten the epidemic curve so the medical system doesn't become completely swamped (like it did in Wuhan).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, I have elderly parents. Both are not in good health. The flu, a bad cold, etc, could easily be the thing that kills either one of them. I don't see this as different from coronavirus.

And your point is? Just let everyone get it and Darwin will sort them out?

At this point, the virus is not containable. As in, it's out there already just like the flu, strep and cold viruses are out there already.

If you want zero chance of not contracting this then you are going to have to do an immediate self quarantine and hope to God that you have not already been exposed to it. Otherwise, you go on with your life and the odds are very good that you will be just fine whether you get this virus or not.

First, this isn't like the flu or strep - there are no treatments or vaccines and NO ONE has immunity to it.
Second, 15% of the cases are serious, requiring some medical care, and 5% are critical, requiring a ventilator. About 2% are fatal.
So let's extrapolate those numbers to Washington DC, assuming only adults get the virus.
So there's about 550,000 adults in DC.
Let's say 1/5 get the virus - that's 110,000.
We can round that down to 100,000
So then if the virus is just allowed to make its way through the city, with no quarantines, etc, that would lead to
15,000 requiring supportive medical care and 5,000 requiring an ICU bed (most with a ventilator, I assume)
And about 2,000 would die.
See the problem?

So you are assuming you can use the #s from China? No other country has a valid sample size yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The goal is to slow virus until vaccine developed or maybe ramp up ventilators.

Also, antiviral treatment and to flatten the epidemic curve so the medical system doesn't become completely swamped (like it did in Wuhan).

Mostly this.

A vaccine under the most optimistic scenario is a year away. Ventilators don't manufacture themselves and even if we could ramp up production we'd probably need parts from China.

The best hope is to flatten the curve so we can treat in an orderly fashion without getting swamped. This takes sometimes strong containment measures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, I have elderly parents. Both are not in good health. The flu, a bad cold, etc, could easily be the thing that kills either one of them. I don't see this as different from coronavirus.

And your point is? Just let everyone get it and Darwin will sort them out?

At this point, the virus is not containable. As in, it's out there already just like the flu, strep and cold viruses are out there already.

If you want zero chance of not contracting this then you are going to have to do an immediate self quarantine and hope to God that you have not already been exposed to it. Otherwise, you go on with your life and the odds are very good that you will be just fine whether you get this virus or not.

First, this isn't like the flu or strep - there are no treatments or vaccines and NO ONE has immunity to it.
Second, 15% of the cases are serious, requiring some medical care, and 5% are critical, requiring a ventilator. About 2% are fatal.
So let's extrapolate those numbers to Washington DC, assuming only adults get the virus.
So there's about 550,000 adults in DC.
Let's say 1/5 get the virus - that's 110,000.
We can round that down to 100,000
So then if the virus is just allowed to make its way through the city, with no quarantines, etc, that would lead to
15,000 requiring supportive medical care and 5,000 requiring an ICU bed (most with a ventilator, I assume)
And about 2,000 would die.
See the problem?

So you are assuming you can use the #s from China? No other country has a valid sample size yet.

Those numbers are from Dr. Fauci today. China has data on over 70,000 cases.

They seem to be confirmed by the Italian experience.
Latest numbers from Italy - 322 cases - up from just three on Friday - including 11 deaths and 42 in critical condition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The goal is to slow virus until vaccine developed or maybe ramp up ventilators.

Also, antiviral treatment and to flatten the epidemic curve so the medical system doesn't become completely swamped (like it did in Wuhan).

Mostly this.

A vaccine under the most optimistic scenario is a year away. Ventilators don't manufacture themselves and even if we could ramp up production we'd probably need parts from China.

The best hope is to flatten the curve so we can treat in an orderly fashion without getting swamped. This takes sometimes strong containment measures.

So basically shut down schools, shopping centers, movie theaters, public transportation, college campuses, day care, businesses for a year until an antiviral can be developed?

Come on, you know that's crazy. Wash your hands. And if you have health issues it might be good to avoid crowds for the time being.