Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.


Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

No. The Rs might not like the "green deal", but parts of it are going to be coming more quickly now. Warp speed on it. Just like the vaccine. It's a matter of national security and defense.

What is needed is what will not happen: a grand compromise. Let's do much of the green deal in terms of wind, solar, etc. The let's get Keystone back on line, encourage drilling, sell new leases. We need alternative sources of energy and oil and gas and we need both now. There is a deal here a Reagan could have done in the name of national security. But I see no prospects for it.

If you recall, Reagan had a Democratic Congress that was willing to compromise. When has a Republican Congress EVER extended this kind of compromise and goodwill to a Democratic President? Not since at least the Carter Administration as far as I can tell. Just like the Affordable Care Act, they'd be happy to water down provisions and then vote against it when the time comes to act. You think Republicans want gas prices to fall between now and November? Fat chance. They'd gleefully look for any effort to sabotage a deal if it's in their political interest (rather than the country's).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.

Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

He may or may not be an idiot boy but he's spoken regularly with Putin for a long time. So if he thinks that Putin has changed for the worse, his insight is more valuable than yours.

Yeh well Macron also though he could woo Trump with a military parade and see how that worked out. Trump made him eat dirt in front of everyone.
Sorry, Macron is not the statesman he thinks he is. And now he’s trying to rip off Zelensky’s scruffy look.

[Anonymous]

While the Ukrainians have acted admirably and definitely tried their best, I definitely think we can no longer abandon them to the Russians and let them handle this alone. Arming them is not enough and it’s time to move in to liberate them. Zelensky’s heroism should inspire all Americans to not live in fear.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.

Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

He may or may not be an idiot boy but he's spoken regularly with Putin for a long time. So if he thinks that Putin has changed for the worse, his insight is more valuable than yours.

Yeh well Macron also though he could woo Trump with a military parade and see how that worked out. Trump made him eat dirt in front of everyone.
Sorry, Macron is not the statesman he thinks he is. And now he’s trying to rip off Zelensky’s scruffy look.

You have so much hate in you. It doesn't make you credible when you hate on all the best leaders in the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.

Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

He may or may not be an idiot boy but he's spoken regularly with Putin for a long time. So if he thinks that Putin has changed for the worse, his insight is more valuable than yours.

Yeh well Macron also though he could woo Trump with a military parade and see how that worked out. Trump made him eat dirt in front of everyone.
Sorry, Macron is not the statesman he thinks he is. And now he’s trying to rip off Zelensky’s scruffy look.

You have so much hate in you. It doesn't make you credible when you hate on all the best leaders in the world.

Omg, dont get your panties in a twist. Macron is OK, but he’s nothing special.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.


Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.


He may or may not be an idiot boy but he's spoken regularly with Putin for a long time. So if he thinks that Putin has changed for the worse, his insight is more valuable than yours.

Yeh well Macron also though he could woo Trump with a military parade and see how that worked out. Trump made him eat dirt in front of everyone.
Sorry, Macron is not the statesman he thinks he is. And now he’s trying to rip off Zelensky’s scruffy look.


You have so much hate in you. It doesn't make you credible when you hate on all the best leaders in the world.


Omg, dont get your panties in a twist. Macron is OK, but he’s nothing special.

Who is "special"?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.

Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

He may or may not be an idiot boy but he's spoken regularly with Putin for a long time. So if he thinks that Putin has changed for the worse, his insight is more valuable than yours.

Yeh well Macron also though he could woo Trump with a military parade and see how that worked out. Trump made him eat dirt in front of everyone.
Sorry, Macron is not the statesman he thinks he is. And now he’s trying to rip off Zelensky’s scruffy look.

Actually it was Macron who called out Trump for his lack of leadership and support for NATO. If Trump is the GOP nominee, the way he tried to torpedo NATO is going to come back to haunt him big time. Because Americans have been reminded how important NATO is.

French President Emmanuel Macron made clear he was in no mood to back down following an extraordinary attack from President Donald Trump on Tuesday.

Sitting alongside Trump in London, Macron said he stood by his comments about NATO – he recently described the long-time coalition as suffering from “brain death” in part due to a lack of US leadership under Trump – and described the alliance as a “burden we share.”

Trump earlier on Tuesday described Macron’s “brain death” comments as “nasty” and “insulting.”

“I know that my statements created some reaction,” Macron said in English. “I do stand by [them].”

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/03/politics/donald-trump-nato/index.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:While the Ukrainians have acted admirably and definitely tried their best, I definitely think we can no longer abandon them to the Russians and let them handle this alone. Arming them is not enough and it’s time to move in to liberate them. Zelensky’s heroism should inspire all Americans to not live in fear.

You know that you can join their volunteer army, why don't you? Did you sign up? When are you deploying for Ukraine?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.




Don't you think that starting this war is going to do much more to destabilize his regime than anything else? I don't see any of this ending well

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.

Don't you think that starting this war is going to do much more to destabilize his regime than anything else? I don't see any of this ending well

His greatest fear will always be being Ceausescu'd.

He was not afraid of NATO. He thought that NATO was falling apart and went for a kill shot which blew up in his face.

[Anonymous]

So getting back to the military situation. If the US starts shipping Switchblade drones and antiship systems the Russians will be pressed hard. It will make supplying Russians very hard. If Russia is able to take major parts of the country the occupation will be hell.

[Anonymous]

So getting back to the military situation. If the US starts shipping Switchblade drones and antiship systems the Russians will be pressed hard. It will make supplying Russians very hard. If Russia is able to take major parts of the country the occupation will be hell.

Yes, that's kind of the point of it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.

Don't you think that starting this war is going to do much more to destabilize his regime than anything else? I don't see any of this ending well

His greatest fear will always be being Ceausescu'd.

He was not afraid of NATO. He thought that NATO was falling apart and went for a kill shot which blew up in his face.

He should be scared and ashamed. He is a pathetic person that will eventually fall. This is the first step of his self-induced collapse. His only hope is incompetence and inaction by NATO leaders and his own countrymen. If they stand up and face him and continue sanctions and perhaps get involved military he has no chance.

[Anonymous]

Updated list:

List of killed/captured Russian officers, March 14

Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander, 41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District (killed Feb 28)
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, Chief of Staff , 41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District (killed Mar 8)
Major General Andrei Kolesnikov, Commander, 29th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District (killed Mar 11)
Chechen general Magomed Tushayev, 141st Rosgvardia Chechen Guard (disputed Mar 1)
Colonel Serhiy Trofimov, Head the missile forces and artillery of 41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District (heavily wounded Mar 8)
Colonel Viktor Isaykin (killed Mar 2)
Colonel Konstantin Ogiy, Head of Kemerovo SOBR unit (killed Feb 28)
Colonel Konstantin Zizevski, 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment (killed Mar 5)
Colonel Sergey Karasev, Commander, 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade (Ulyanovsk) (Killed Mar 11)
Colonel Yuri Agrakov, Commander, 104th VDV Regiment, 76th Guards Airborne Division. (killed Mar 8)
Colonel Andrei Zakharov, Battalion-tactical group Commander, 6th Tank Regiment (Chebarkul) , 90th Tank division (killed Mar 10) (given Order of Courage in 2016)
Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Sofronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, (killed Mar 5)
Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade (killed Mar 5, given Order of Courage)
Lieutenant Colonel Okruzhnov Alexander Nikolaevich, head of artillery, 104th VDV Regiment, 76th Airborne Division (killed Mar 7)
Lieutenant Colonel Alexey Narzullaevich Khasanov, deputy commander, 31st Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment (pilot, Su-30SM, killed Mar 5)
Vladimir Zhoga, warlord, Sparta Battalion (Lt Col equivalent?) (killed Mar 5)
Major Andrei Petrovich Burlakov, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Secret Service, Chief of Intelligence of Regiment, Rosgvardia (killed Mar 10)
Major Ruslan Leonov, Spetsnaz company commander (killed Mar 10)
Major Alexei Ilnitsky, deputy battalion commander, VDV 11th Air Assault Brigade (Ulan-Ude) (killed, given Order of Courage)
Major Bezborodov Dmitry Valeryevich, Rosgvardiya battalion commander (killed)
Captain Maklagin Vyacheslav Vyacheslavovich (killed Feb 25, given Order of Courage)
Captain Aleksey Aleksandrovich Chuchmanov, GRU/GU 3rd SpetsNaz Brigade (Tolyatti) (killed Mar 3, 2022)
Captain Yevgeny Ivanov, platoon commander, Russian 247th Guards Assault Caucasian Cossack Regiment (killed)
Captain Sergei Aleksandrovich Visyach (killed)
Captain Alexey Glushchak, GRU intelligence officer (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Alexei Aleshko, Military Intelligence Officer (killed Mar 10)
Senior Lieutenant Andrei Shamko, VDV, GRU/GU 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Pskov) (killed)
Senior Lieutenant Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov, company commander, 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment (killed, given Hero of Russia)
Senior Lieutenant Nikolai Shumitsky, Tank Company Commander, 81st Tank Battalion, 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (killed, given Order of Courage)
Senior Lieutenant Sergey Dorokhov, Rosgvardia SOBR team member (Vologda) (killed)
Lieutenant Georgy Alexandrovich Dudorov, Deputy Commander, Military-Political Affairs, Recon company, 137th Airborne Regiment, 106th VDV Airborne Division (Tula) (killed March 6)
Lieutenant Vitaly Olegovich Golub , Platoon Commander, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Guards Combined Arms Army (Volgograd) (killed, given Order of Courage)
Lieutenant Dmitry Chernyshev, VDV 247th Air Assault Regiment (killed, given Order of Courage)
Lieutenant Daniil Dmitreievich Kurin, Reconnaissance Platoon Commander, 34th Mountain Motorized Rifle Brigade (killed, March 3)
Lieutenant Colonel, 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment, 105th Guards Mixed Aviation Division (Pilot, Su-34, captured)
Lieutenant Colonel Krishtop Maxim Sergeevich, (Pilot , Su-30, captured)
Lieutenant Colonel Astakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich, Rosgvardia (captured)
Major Schetkin Leonid Petrovich, Commander and chief of staff, 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 41st Combined Arms Army (captured Feb 26)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.

Don't you think that starting this war is going to do much more to destabilize his regime than anything else? I don't see any of this ending well

His greatest fear will always be being Ceausescu'd.

He was not afraid of NATO. He thought that NATO was falling apart and went for a kill shot which blew up in his face.

I think you’re right and that answers the question of why he invaded now. He saw that Biden was uniting and strengthening NATO and so this was his best chance before it got stronger. Trump did a lot of damage. And he couldn’t do it a year ago because of Covid.