Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Since NATO countries can’t support Ukraine, is it possible to temporarily assign our military and planes to be under Ukraine command? We can call them volunteers to avoid escalating with Russia so the war doesn’t expand but at the same time secure victory for Ukraine.

Do you really think Russia is so stupid as to think, “oh these are just volunteers. That’s fine.”

Come on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If we get more involved per Zelensky's request this morning -- do we really think Putin will use the nuclear option? Is he really that crazy?

Not a chance.

We don’t just watch US media in our house. We monitor international news from Europe (in German).

While sensationalist US news sources reported Putin recently put Russian nuclear forces on alert, the US sources failed to explain the meaning of that alert.

European news explained the relevant alert system goes from 0 to 5. Putin elevated it from 0 to 1. Moreover, that move cost Putin virtually nothing in Rubles/dollars, but it certainly had value as a threat against Western intervention. It was essentially a cost-free bluff. It is meaningless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.


Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

No. The Rs might not like the "green deal", but parts of it are going to be coming more quickly now. Warp speed on it. Just like the vaccine. It's a matter of national security and defense.

What is needed is what will not happen: a grand compromise. Let's do much of the green deal in terms of wind, solar, etc. The let's get Keystone back on line, encourage drilling, sell new leases. We need alternative sources of energy and oil and gas and we need both now. There is a deal here a Reagan could have done in the name of national security. But I see no prospects for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.


Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

No. The Rs might not like the "green deal", but parts of it are going to be coming more quickly now. Warp speed on it. Just like the vaccine. It's a matter of national security and defense.

What is needed is what will not happen: a grand compromise. Let's do much of the green deal in terms of wind, solar, etc. The let's get Keystone back on line, encourage drilling, sell new leases. We need alternative sources of energy and oil and gas and we need both now. There is a deal here a Reagan could have done in the name of national security. But I see no prospects for it.

DP. For years, I thought this way. I'm a moderate, a pragmatist, a former R. But I've come to realize that the only way a green deal will happen is when it must. Necessity is not the mother of invention, it's the only reason for invention. If we encourage more drilling, we will discourage more green energy. We only innovate when we have to. And we need to stop using fossil fuels.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If we get more involved per Zelensky's request this morning -- do we really think Putin will use the nuclear option? Is he really that crazy?

Not a chance.

We don’t just watch US media in our house. We monitor international news from Europe (in German).

While sensationalist US news sources reported Putin recently put Russian nuclear forces on alert, the US sources failed to explain the meaning of that alert.

European news explained the relevant alert system goes from 0 to 5. Putin elevated it from 0 to 1. Moreover, that move cost Putin virtually nothing in Rubles/dollars, but it certainly had value as a threat against Western intervention. It was essentially a cost-free bluff. It is meaningless.

Sure. Everyone who has seen the movie war games understands this. But the move has meaning. Sure it is free but it increases the pressure. The US did not move our at all in response as we would have in the Cold War. Not because we are peaceful people but because it is somewhat meaningless. But it does mean that Putin is putting them on the table. That is a step that no leader ever did in the Cold War absent a fear that the other side was about to shoot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Granted, I’m a little behind but just listened to a Frontline podcast with Julia Ioffe. She feels that Putin’s inner circle circle has shrunk to only a few advisors who may be crazier than Putin is. She feels he will not stop until he has ground Ukraine “to a fine dust”.

His inner circle has been shrinking for several years, and he has always had advisors who are crazier than him.

I think it's long past time that we stopped calling them crazy. They're just stupid. Crazy gives them too much credit. They're actually thinking this through and planning these fiascos. It's all been intentional. They're just stupid.

I don't think Putin is crazy. Just watch some of his interviews, such as this one a few years ago with Charlie Rose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l69tRETnlo&t=2388s

He is alert, focused, and logical, and seems more on-the-ball than many of our own leaders.

I think his reasoning approach with respect to Ukraine is as follows:

1. He doesn't believe that NATO is purely a defensive organization. He thinks that NATO -- or the United States -- would like to topple his regime. He has seen the United States topple regimes in several countries, he believes that we may have played a hand in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.

2. He recognizes that Ukraine is rapidly coming under the influence of the West, both economically and militarily. On Nov 10, 2021, the US and Ukraine signed a strategic partnership that will increase the flow of military support to Ukraine.

3. On the current trajectory, Putin believes that Ukraine will indeed become part of NATO, perhaps 5 to 10 years down the road.

4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, Putin feels backed into a corner. Unless he does something, Russia will soon be encircled by NATO countries.

5. Given that Ukraine has been improving its military with help from the West, Putin feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing for Russia to push back against NATO, and ensure that Ukraine remains outside of NATO.

6. Based on all of the facts/assumptions above, he decided that an invasion was necessary for his regime's long-term survival. He views this invasion as a form of pro-active defense, as opposed to a purely offensive move designed solely to expand Russia's territory. I doubt he wants to absorb Ukraine into Russia; rather, he simply wants to make sure it remains outside of NATO's grasp.

Of course, I'm speculating. None of us can read Putin's mind. But in his interviews he is always quite lucid and calm -- never emotion -- always under control. And time and time again he has stressed that the Russian government views Ukraine's potential accession into NATO as a red line. Russia cannot accept NATO membership for Ukraine. They view this accession as a security risk, recognizing that many "defensive" weapon systems can also be used for offense.

I don't think we are dealing with a mad-man. I think we are dealing with somebody who truly believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia's long-term survival is at stake, and is willing to do whatever is necessary to keep NATO's paws off of Ukraine.

Yes, this is a spot-on summary of Putin’s mentality. Kudos!

Listen to "The Daily" podcast the morning after the attack. It basically identified P's reasons what the PP says, which is a good summary.

[Anonymous]

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.




No, it is imaginary.

Putin fears Russia will be invaded and occupied by a NATO country.

Please explain which NATO country would seriously want to occupy Russia?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a great article about Putin’s mentality: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-10/putin-gambler?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Putin%20the%20Gambler&utm_content=20220310&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017

It argues that Putin is not insane, but rather that he has taken increased risks since 2014 and that he has undoubtedly overestimated his chances of success in this invasion.

Putin is a totalitarian dictator surrounded by an increasingly shrinking circle of sycophants who tell him what he wants to hear. Two years of Covid isolation have made this worse.

PBS recently aired this expert interview which backs up your first point:

- Putin is a totalitarian dictator.

Those around him, however, are terrified of him, and also terrified of being the bearers of bad news; they are the definition of “yes men.” They only tell him what he wants to hear out of fear of arrest or “disappearance.”

This is an excellent interview.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Since NATO countries can’t support Ukraine, is it possible to temporarily assign our military and planes to be under Ukraine command? We can call them volunteers to avoid escalating with Russia so the war doesn’t expand but at the same time secure victory for Ukraine.

No. We would never do that…like ever. Now you can volunteer to go fight in the Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.

No, it is imaginary.

Putin fears Russia will be invaded and occupied by a NATO country.

Please explain which NATO country would seriously want to occupy Russia?

We can only speculate about Putin's thinking on this, but I don't think he fears an invasion. Rather, he fears the security risk posed by sharing a 1500 mile border with Ukraine, assuming Ukraine should enter NATO. Many "defensive" weapons can serve double-duty, also playing an offensive role. In addition, he fears the internal political instability that could occur in the event that Ukraine's economy begins to accelerate, and Ukraine's government continues to evolve as a liberal democracy.

Russia is aging rapidly. The birth rate is low. It would be devastating to Russia's future if young Russia people began to leave the country, motivated, in part, by an economic and democratic transformation of Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

This quote suggests that Putin has created a fake reality to stay in power.

I'd argue that Putin's reality is only partly fake.

His greatest fear is that the West will seek to de-stabilize his regime. He has seen the US topple governments in other countries. He has watched NATO gradually encircle his country. While his paranoia may exaggerate the risks he is facing, I think the risks are real, as opposed to imagined.

No, it is imaginary.

Putin fears Russia will be invaded and occupied by a NATO country.

Please explain which NATO country would seriously want to occupy Russia?

We can only speculate about Putin's thinking on this, but I don't think he fears an invasion. Rather, he fears the security risk posed by sharing a 1500 mile border with Ukraine, assuming Ukraine should enter NATO. Many "defensive" weapons can serve double-duty, also playing an offensive role. In addition, he fears the internal political instability that could occur in the event that Ukraine's economy begins to accelerate, and Ukraine's government continues to evolve as a liberal democracy.

Russia is aging rapidly. The birth rate is low. It would be devastating to Russia's future if young Russia people began to leave the country, motivated, in part, by an economic and democratic transformation of Ukraine.

If Ukraine became a NATO member Putin could not invade them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

If Joe wasn’t holding up the deal this long, those planes could’ve been bombing Russian trucks and BMP’s last week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Sadly their medieval siege tactics will kill thousands of Ukrainian civilians.

It's sad they have such little manpower yet can still do so much damage.

Israeli satellite images show Russia has moved numerous heavy bombers to airfields near the Ukrainian border.

Looks like they plan to reduce Kyiv to rubble and ashes.

Can you imagine the case of blue-balls USAF F-15 and F-22 pilots must have knowing all those bombers are over there, ready to fly missions?

LMAO!!!!!

Seriously. How many Backfires and Fullbacks could you splash in one CAP mission with a Raptor? I’ll bet you could dump all your AARAMS’s on an entire bomber cell before they even knew you were there. Then finish up any stragglers with a few passes with the Vulcan blazing. Radio your crew chief to have stencils and spray paint ready at the ramp.

[Anonymous]

Looks like anti ship systems are coming.