2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:POLLS ONLY

Wow, that is stunning!
What are the Democrats going to do now?

Newsmax reported it, it's gotta be true!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 42% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.

Among voters who said they had heard at least something about Tuesday's debate, 53% said Harris won and 24% said Trump won, with the rest saying neither had or not answering. Some 52% of respondents said that Trump stumbled and didn't appear sharp, while 21% said that of Harris.

Reuters/Ipsos overweights Ds in its survey - 36% D, 32% R and has consistently shown Harris ahead. In its last poll in August, it was +4 for Harris.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-maintains-slight-edge-over-trump-among-voters-nationwide

Until 2 years ago, nationally, about 51% of voters were Democrat or Democratic-leaning Independents. And 46% of the population were Republican or Republican-leaning Independents. Those were the numbers during the 2020 Presidential election and the numbers were close to those in the 2022 midterms, based on nationwide turnout. In the last two years, it's closed to 49% and 48%.

Most likely they don't want to shift their models based on projections from groups like Pew Research, but want to use exit polling from actual elections to determine the weighting. So, after this year, the numbers of voters in this election will be used to adjust the weighting for the 2026 mid-term models and the 2028 presidential models.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 42% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.

Among voters who said they had heard at least something about Tuesday's debate, 53% said Harris won and 24% said Trump won, with the rest saying neither had or not answering. Some 52% of respondents said that Trump stumbled and didn't appear sharp, while 21% said that of Harris.

Reuters/Ipsos overweights Ds in its survey - 36% D, 32% R and has consistently shown Harris ahead. In its last poll in August, it was +4 for Harris.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-maintains-slight-edge-over-trump-among-voters-nationwide

Until 2 years ago, nationally, about 51% of voters were Democrat or Democratic-leaning Independents. And 46% of the population were Republican or Republican-leaning Independents. Those were the numbers during the 2020 Presidential election and the numbers were close to those in the 2022 midterms, based on nationwide turnout. In the last two years, it's closed to 49% and 48%.

Most likely they don't want to shift their models based on projections from groups like Pew Research, but want to use exit polling from actual elections to determine the weighting. So, after this year, the numbers of voters in this election will be used to adjust the weighting for the 2026 mid-term models and the 2028 presidential models.

They wait at the risk of inaccurate poll results in the interim, where they over-predict D tallies.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Why is YouGov unrated?

[Anonymous]

When a poll like this gets to +7 for one candidate or the other, it begins to get meaningful.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I know nothing about polling. But this is frankly implausible at this point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

We should just ask Jeff not to allow anymore Nate Silver posts. He runs a betting site now that is funded by Peter Thiel. It has nothing to do with actual analysis of legitimate polling.

[Anonymous]

Anything is possible at this point--the polls are so close--but early voting is starting and the ground game of the parties matters more than the polls.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I know nothing about polling. But this is frankly implausible at this point.

It’s not that Trump will get 61% of the vote. It’s that he has a 61% chance of winning.