2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

Link please.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

Link please.

Not PP but that’s just a fact at this point. Link goes into it in detail:
https://www.realclearpennsylvania.com/articles/2024/09/12/pennsylvania_a_single_grain_of_rice_could_win_the_presidency_1057898.html
Numbers here:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This doesn’t mean what you think it means. It’s not hundreds of thousands of new registrants. First of all, it only includes reports from like half of the states. And according to Michael Pruser of Decision Desk, “States perform maintenance on their voter rolls, which removes people from the rolls for reasons such as inactivity, death, moving, etc.

Each state has its schedule, but over a few years, every state has a month or two with big red numbers; it's pretty standard. The only rule is that a state cannot do this within 90 days of a Federal election, so August 9th was their last chance.

To answer your second question, the primary reason for an increase in "Other" registrations is that many states have adopted automatic voter registration through the DMV, which starts you off as "unaffiliated."

Most don't care, won't vote, and simply ghost register as unaffiliated.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

It's not just quality btw, it's also time. A poll conducted in July is not useful right now.

Speaking of July, that's probably when he started weighting his conservative leaning polls higher than other like polls. In June 2024 was when he was cut by ABC and when he started working for PolyMarket, which is a Peter Thiel owned company. He sold himself to Peter Thiel and then suddenly these right-leaning polls started getting weighted more and his polls started skewing much more towards Trump. Connection?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

It's not just quality btw, it's also time. A poll conducted in July is not useful right now.

Speaking of July, that's probably when he started weighting his conservative leaning polls higher than other like polls. In June 2024 was when he was cut by ABC and when he started working for PolyMarket, which is a Peter Thiel owned company. He sold himself to Peter Thiel and then suddenly these right-leaning polls started getting weighted more and his polls started skewing much more towards Trump. Connection?

Many people are saying there’s a connection.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 42% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.

Among voters who said they had heard at least something about Tuesday's debate, 53% said Harris won and 24% said Trump won, with the rest saying neither had or not answering. Some 52% of respondents said that Trump stumbled and didn't appear sharp, while 21% said that of Harris.

Reuters/Ipsos overweights Ds in its survey - 36% D, 32% R and has consistently shown Harris ahead. In its last poll in August, it was +4 for Harris.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-maintains-slight-edge-over-trump-among-voters-nationwide

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

Already debunked. YouGov is weighted 2x Patriot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

Oldie but goodie:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

It's not just quality btw, it's also time. A poll conducted in July is not useful right now.

And a poll conducted right now isn't useful to figure out what's going to happen in November. This is all basically a very unsatisfying form of masturbation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

It's not just quality btw, it's also time. A poll conducted in July is not useful right now.

Speaking of July, that's probably when he started weighting his conservative leaning polls higher than other like polls. In June 2024 was when he was cut by ABC and when he started working for PolyMarket, which is a Peter Thiel owned company. He sold himself to Peter Thiel and then suddenly these right-leaning polls started getting weighted more and his polls started skewing much more towards Trump. Connection?

I’ve followed Silver since 2008 and noticed the rightward shift this year, but hadn’t caught that connection. Thanks!

[Anonymous]

POLLS ONLY

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

It's not just quality btw, it's also time. A poll conducted in July is not useful right now.

And a poll conducted right now isn't useful to figure out what's going to happen in November. This is all basically a very unsatisfying form of masturbation.

That's quite the analogy.