2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 42% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.

Among voters who said they had heard at least something about Tuesday's debate, 53% said Harris won and 24% said Trump won, with the rest saying neither had or not answering. Some 52% of respondents said that Trump stumbled and didn't appear sharp, while 21% said that of Harris.

[Anonymous]

(DP but is related to the Reuters article posted just above)

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

I could be wrong but the morning consult is one poll and Nate silver averages various polls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Because they are measuring different things.

Morning Consult is saying, if the election were held today, 47% of voters would vote for Harris.

Nate Silver is saying, based on the fact that most of the swing states are essentially toss ups and Trump has an advantage in the electoral college, Trump has a somewhat higher chance of winning the election than Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Because they are measuring different things.

Morning Consult is saying, if the election were held today, 47% of voters would vote for Harris.

Nate Silver is saying, based on the fact that most of the swing states are essentially toss ups and Trump has an advantage in the electoral college, Trump has a somewhat higher chance of winning the election than Harris.

Sorry, that should 50% of voters would vote for Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Because they are measuring different things.

Morning Consult is saying, if the election were held today, 47% of voters would vote for Harris.

Nate Silver is saying, based on the fact that most of the swing states are essentially toss ups and Trump has an advantage in the electoral college, Trump has a somewhat higher chance of winning the election than Harris.

Morning Consult has a post-debate update:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

It's not just quality btw, it's also time. A poll conducted in July is not useful right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why are Nate Silver’s predictions so different?

Silver averages a lot of poills, including a bunch of Junk GOP polls meant to boost Trump's ego.

He actually doesn't do straight averages. He weights them based on the how high quality the pollster is.

The fact is right now Harris and Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to win PA and right now it's a complete toss-up. I have hope that Harris can win but she definitely doesn't have this in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

But the fact that he includes them at all skews his results.

And I agree about PA and how close it is.

+1 That’s the entire point - experts were calling out Silver for weighing a poll by MAGA high schoolers higher than one by YouGov.

It's not just quality btw, it's also time. A poll conducted in July is not useful right now.

Those two polls were in the field on the same days.