Politics, not COVID rates, determined school openings

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Politics are why we lifted the lock down in MD and interestingly enough they are putting more restrictions in place right after the elections. If we had strong politicians who care about everyones best interests we would have continued the restrictions and maybe had a better handle on things.

Right - except the lock down was lifted on churches and businesses, not on public schools. Which goes to show whose interests were being considered.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Actually, both posters and the OP are probably right. First, the decision to reopen schools was mostly political, based on party affiliation and not on metrics. We can see this in states like Iowa, which set absolutely insanely high and dangerous metrics for reopening schools and then opened and kept them open as community spread increased. So not only did schools reopen, but due to a view of COVID risk, those areas that did reopen are likely much less conservative about reverting to virtual.

On the other hand, here in the DMV, most districts did not reopen, or at least reopened only in part. We had the numbers to bring at least some students back into the classroom, but didn't. We now no longer have the numbers. The number of private schools in the DMV could not have driven the type of community spread we are seeing now. If the surge mirrors the surge where schools were open, then how can you say schools are driving the surge.

In Maryland, we now have one of the higher infection rates in the country (we are 21st). That infection rate is higher that COVID hotspots like Wisconsin. In Georgia, where they reopened schools with much fanfare and what looked like not enough mask wearing, they have fewer daily cases than we do and a lower infection rate, although their positivity rate is slightly worse.

Beyond the impact of reopening schools, because the decision to reopen is political, you can expert to see community behaviors that increase spread in those areas that reopened schools. In North Dakota, there is no mask mandate at all. That is going to drive cases up, with schools open or closed. And if schools are open and masks are not required, the North Dakota experience isn't going to tell us much.

I don't think it safe to reopen now, and am almost convinced that we shouldn't try for the rest of this school year. However, based on what we are seeing now, it is hard to argue that schools are driving the surge. The vast majority of schools stayed closed and the surge happened anyway.

I agree that the decisions have all been politically motivated, and scientifically "informed" by cherry picking whatever study fits.
Honestly, until October I supported return to full time instruction. Then I watched the numbers as they climbed. And now - I think they should go remote until after the holidays.
My district hasn't followed its own plan. And now, it is defying the Dept of Health and PA Dept Education recommendation because "its no worse than flu for the kids." Right now, PA is letting local jurisdictions make the call. But if they continue to resist the recommendation and numbers continue to climb... it will be a mandate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Oh look, a study that shows the hybrid model helps at slowing the spread of COVID... sorry it doesn't agree with you, OP.
https://herald-review.com/news/state-and-regional/study-shows-hybrid-learning-is-effective-at-slowing-covid-spread-in-illinois-schools/article_88a21035-f93e-52dd-a682-85c57f941986.html

Ok well that article actually supports reopening schools? "In-person learning looks like it has had some negative effect in Illinois, but hybrid learning and completely remote learning were statistically very similar, suggesting that a mix of digital lessons with some in-person school attendance might be as safe as keeping students at home on their computers."

It says that hybrid learning is ok.

Also, I wonder if it breaks down in-person by age groups, and how big the risk actually is. It would be reasonable to accept some small additional risk for in-person for the kids who need it most (SN and K-2 in my opinion).

Finally, remember that CHOP pointed out that in-school spread is driven BY STAFF not wearing masks and not social distancing. So the teacher's unions need to internalize that tidbit.

[Anonymous]

It really is complicated. A friend was telling me that schools in her district have been open all fall with few cases. Then there were a half dozen unlinked cases in the high school (community acquired) and so they shut for two weeks. During that shut down the county health department found an outbreak among high school students getting together to hang out, unmasked, in peoples homes since they weren’t in school. For these high schoolers, shutting their supervised setting sent them out to engage in risky behavior.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Actually, both posters and the OP are probably right. First, the decision to reopen schools was mostly political, based on party affiliation and not on metrics. We can see this in states like Iowa, which set absolutely insanely high and dangerous metrics for reopening schools and then opened and kept them open as community spread increased. So not only did schools reopen, but due to a view of COVID risk, those areas that did reopen are likely much less conservative about reverting to virtual.

On the other hand, here in the DMV, most districts did not reopen, or at least reopened only in part. We had the numbers to bring at least some students back into the classroom, but didn't. We now no longer have the numbers. The number of private schools in the DMV could not have driven the type of community spread we are seeing now. If the surge mirrors the surge where schools were open, then how can you say schools are driving the surge.

In Maryland, we now have one of the higher infection rates in the country (we are 21st). That infection rate is higher that COVID hotspots like Wisconsin. In Georgia, where they reopened schools with much fanfare and what looked like not enough mask wearing, they have fewer daily cases than we do and a lower infection rate, although their positivity rate is slightly worse.

Beyond the impact of reopening schools, because the decision to reopen is political, you can expert to see community behaviors that increase spread in those areas that reopened schools. In North Dakota, there is no mask mandate at all. That is going to drive cases up, with schools open or closed. And if schools are open and masks are not required, the North Dakota experience isn't going to tell us much.

I don't think it safe to reopen now, and am almost convinced that we shouldn't try for the rest of this school year. However, based on what we are seeing now, it is hard to argue that schools are driving the surge. The vast majority of schools stayed closed and the surge happened anyway.

I agree that the decisions have all been politically motivated, and scientifically "informed" by cherry picking whatever study fits.
Honestly, until October I supported return to full time instruction. Then I watched the numbers as they climbed. And now - I think they should go remote until after the holidays.
My district hasn't followed its own plan. And now, it is defying the Dept of Health and PA Dept Education recommendation because "its no worse than flu for the kids." Right now, PA is letting local jurisdictions make the call. But if they continue to resist the recommendation and numbers continue to climb... it will be a mandate.

Thanks. It's helpful to have another perspective from one of the places making different decisions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Right - you're smarter and better in formed than the dean of Public Health at Brown, the experts at CHOP, and numerous researchers world-wide. Oh, and you're also smarter than countless private school administrators and parents, as well as the leadership of the entire nation of Germany.

But hey, I would welcome an actual, informed debate on this, but as you very well know, all we had was the teacher's unions screaming "IT'S NOT SAFE" in cities where all the wealthy white kids were going to private schools in person.

Actually, I am informed and used the words from the study against you. Helps if you actually read the study to see the conditions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Right - you're smarter and better in formed than the dean of Public Health at Brown, the experts at CHOP, and numerous researchers world-wide. Oh, and you're also smarter than countless private school administrators and parents, as well as the leadership of the entire nation of Germany.

But hey, I would welcome an actual, informed debate on this, but as you very well know, all we had was the teacher's unions screaming "IT'S NOT SAFE" in cities where all the wealthy white kids were going to private schools in person.

Actually, I am informed and used the words from the study against you. Helps if you actually read the study to see the conditions.

Way to miss the point. (As well as misrepresent that research, but you do you.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Right - you're smarter and better in formed than the dean of Public Health at Brown, the experts at CHOP, and numerous researchers world-wide. Oh, and you're also smarter than countless private school administrators and parents, as well as the leadership of the entire nation of Germany.

But hey, I would welcome an actual, informed debate on this, but as you very well know, all we had was the teacher's unions screaming "IT'S NOT SAFE" in cities where all the wealthy white kids were going to private schools in person.

Actually, I am informed and used the words from the study against you. Helps if you actually read the study to see the conditions.

Way to miss the point. (As well as misrepresent that research, but you do you.)

Way to miss the point... I quoted the CHOP recommendations, which specifically point to percent positivity as a criteria... but hey, you do you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Right - you're smarter and better in formed than the dean of Public Health at Brown, the experts at CHOP, and numerous researchers world-wide. Oh, and you're also smarter than countless private school administrators and parents, as well as the leadership of the entire nation of Germany.

But hey, I would welcome an actual, informed debate on this, but as you very well know, all we had was the teacher's unions screaming "IT'S NOT SAFE" in cities where all the wealthy white kids were going to private schools in person.

Actually, I am informed and used the words from the study against you. Helps if you actually read the study to see the conditions.

Way to miss the point. (As well as misrepresent that research, but you do you.)

Way to miss the point... I quoted the CHOP recommendations, which specifically point to percent positivity as a criteria... but hey, you do you.

Where did I disagree with the CHOP positivity recommendations? I didn't. What's uncontroverted is that in cities like DC and SF, we MET those criteria and still did not open. Because politics tilted towards the teachers union, and not towards children and parents.

As for you dismissing Dr. Jha's opinion -- well, that's pretty arrogant of you.

And moreover, my entire point is that these decisions should be made in consideration of the actual research and public health recommendations, which they quite clearly were not. They were decided based on local politics, not science or public health.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oh look, a study that shows the hybrid model helps at slowing the spread of COVID... sorry it doesn't agree with you, OP.
https://herald-review.com/news/state-and-regional/study-shows-hybrid-learning-is-effective-at-slowing-covid-spread-in-illinois-schools/article_88a21035-f93e-52dd-a682-85c57f941986.html

Ok well that article actually supports reopening schools? "In-person learning looks like it has had some negative effect in Illinois, but hybrid learning and completely remote learning were statistically very similar, suggesting that a mix of digital lessons with some in-person school attendance might be as safe as keeping students at home on their computers."

It says that hybrid learning is ok.

Also, I wonder if it breaks down in-person by age groups, and how big the risk actually is. It would be reasonable to accept some small additional risk for in-person for the kids who need it most (SN and K-2 in my opinion).

Finally, remember that CHOP pointed out that in-school spread is driven BY STAFF not wearing masks and not social distancing. So the teacher's unions need to internalize that tidbit.

Actually... to quote
"Most school-associated transmission has occurred outside of school or because of poor adherence to masking protocols. Limited data are available from investigations of school-associated outbreaks; however, from the data we do have, it’s evident that most school-related transmission has involved student gatherings outside of school and shared meals (either in or outside of schools) amongst staff. Although reports
of daycare outbreaks have been rare, those that have been reported occurred when there was limited implementation and/or adherence to multi-layered mitigation plans. Staff-to-staff transmission in this setting has been associated with poor masking compliance."
The staff not wearing masks applied to daycares (not a teachers union issue).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

That's impossible to know. What is possible to know is the COVID rates that go up when schools open. What a mystery, eh?

Rates are also going up where schools are closed. So what's your point?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Right - you're smarter and better in formed than the dean of Public Health at Brown, the experts at CHOP, and numerous researchers world-wide. Oh, and you're also smarter than countless private school administrators and parents, as well as the leadership of the entire nation of Germany.

But hey, I would welcome an actual, informed debate on this, but as you very well know, all we had was the teacher's unions screaming "IT'S NOT SAFE" in cities where all the wealthy white kids were going to private schools in person.

Actually, I am informed and used the words from the study against you. Helps if you actually read the study to see the conditions.

Way to miss the point. (As well as misrepresent that research, but you do you.)

Way to miss the point... I quoted the CHOP recommendations, which specifically point to percent positivity as a criteria... but hey, you do you.

Where did I disagree with the CHOP positivity recommendations? I didn't. What's uncontroverted is that in cities like DC and SF, we MET those criteria and still did not open. Because politics tilted towards the teachers union, and not towards children and parents.

As for you dismissing Dr. Jha's opinion -- well, that's pretty arrogant of you.

And moreover, my entire point is that these decisions should be made in consideration of the actual research and public health recommendations, which they quite clearly were not. They were decided based on local politics, not science or public health.

My point is there's plenty of research to support any argument/decision. Any school that reopened - or stay closed - or used hybrid - cherry picked research and professional opinions to support whatever model they decided to go with.
I'm not "dismissing" his opinion - but you called it research. Words have meaning... It's his opinion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

That's impossible to know. What is possible to know is the COVID rates that go up when schools open. What a mystery, eh?

Rates are also going up where schools are closed. So what's your point?

The issue is... what else changed? What stayed the same?
Some things you can account for.
PA example - bars, restaurants, churches, sports - all open in June. Rates doubled from August & September to October... weather was still nice so no big surge of indoor activity... So what happened?
1. School resumed.
2. Labor Day parties, soccer tournaments, etc
Rates doubled again in November. Is it
1. school spread
2. Halloween parties
3. Trump rallies
4. Less daylight = more indoor activity
OR
5. all of the above
Honestly, contact tracing with no testing does very little when it comes to people being asymptomatic but possibly spreading. Possible scenario: Amy had COVID and was in class with Bob and Charlie. Neither have symptoms, never take a test. Bob and Charlie play baseball and soccer. Dave and Emery from these sports get COVID... but no idea where they got it from, because they weren't in class or in contact with Amy or anyone else who was sick.
So, my son's school... just quarantined the entire 7th grade - they were hybrid, but because the teachers were exposed, they had to move the entire grade to remote. "Maya" was notified that she was in close contact with one of the people that tested positive (3 cases in last 2 weeks). Maya is currently "not feeling well". Maya's brother, "Maurice", who is in elementary (full time) is riding around the neighborhood looking for kids to go play with him. Several do. I see them playing at the park. So... when Maurice's friends get COVID, will they realize the spread came from the middle school sibling? Probably not.
So many cases are "no idea where it came from" when the reality is, its asymptomatic people that have no clue they are spreading it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

That's impossible to know. What is possible to know is the COVID rates that go up when schools open. What a mystery, eh?

Rates are also going up where schools are closed. So what's your point?

The issue is... what else changed? What stayed the same?
Some things you can account for.
PA example - bars, restaurants, churches, sports - all open in June. Rates doubled from August & September to October... weather was still nice so no big surge of indoor activity... So what happened?
1. School resumed.
2. Labor Day parties, soccer tournaments, etc
Rates doubled again in November. Is it
1. school spread
2. Halloween parties
3. Trump rallies
4. Less daylight = more indoor activity
OR
5. all of the above
Honestly, contact tracing with no testing does very little when it comes to people being asymptomatic but possibly spreading. Possible scenario: Amy had COVID and was in class with Bob and Charlie. Neither have symptoms, never take a test. Bob and Charlie play baseball and soccer. Dave and Emery from these sports get COVID... but no idea where they got it from, because they weren't in class or in contact with Amy or anyone else who was sick.
So, my son's school... just quarantined the entire 7th grade - they were hybrid, but because the teachers were exposed, they had to move the entire grade to remote. "Maya" was notified that she was in close contact with one of the people that tested positive (3 cases in last 2 weeks). Maya is currently "not feeling well". Maya's brother, "Maurice", who is in elementary (full time) is riding around the neighborhood looking for kids to go play with him. Several do. I see them playing at the park. So... when Maurice's friends get COVID, will they realize the spread came from the middle school sibling? Probably not.
So many cases are "no idea where it came from" when the reality is, its asymptomatic people that have no clue they are spreading it.

I would add colleges returning, although I think that bars and restaurants play a big role. Bars and restaurants opened in most counties by the end of June. I found this article from July which showed that by July 20, the number of younger people (19-24 age group) was rising in some areas.

https://www.theintell.com/story/news/2020/07/20/coronavirus-cases-rising-in-southeast-pa-among-those-19-to-24/42051915/

By July 15, the Governor phased back the reopening by instituting new restrictions, including closing bars that don't serve food, limiting indoor gatherings to 25 and reducing restaurant capacity to 25%

https://www.fox43.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/pa-department-of-health-releases-information-on-covid-19-case-investigations-including-some-bars-and-restaurants-data/521-1651a052-02be-4f3b-a8d9-4a255668e556

Restrictions on bars and restaurants in Philadelphia continued through at least August. This article from July 23 also noted a concerning increase in cases associated with younger people crowding into bars and restaurants.

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/07/23/pennsylvania-health-officials-focued-on-reversing-trend-of-rising-covid-19-cases-in-state/

Here is a resource with a timeline for reopening decisions. Note that on September 21, restaurants were permitted to reopen at 50% capacity. Restrictions on large gathering were lifted a few weeks later.

https://ballotpedia.org/Documenting_Pennsylvania%27s_reopening_and_path_to_recovery_from_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020


PA's increase in cases started really accelerating after those restrictions were lifted. This is similar to what we have seen in Maryland where most schools did not reopen. You call tell me that it is schools and not bars or indoor dining, but there seems to be a pattern. Why are PA and Maryland the same, despite one state opening schools and the other keeping them closed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

That's impossible to know. What is possible to know is the COVID rates that go up when schools open. What a mystery, eh?

Rates are also going up where schools are closed. So what's your point?

The issue is... what else changed? What stayed the same?
Some things you can account for.
PA example - bars, restaurants, churches, sports - all open in June. Rates doubled from August & September to October... weather was still nice so no big surge of indoor activity... So what happened?
1. School resumed.
2. Labor Day parties, soccer tournaments, etc
Rates doubled again in November. Is it
1. school spread
2. Halloween parties
3. Trump rallies
4. Less daylight = more indoor activity
OR
5. all of the above
Honestly, contact tracing with no testing does very little when it comes to people being asymptomatic but possibly spreading. Possible scenario: Amy had COVID and was in class with Bob and Charlie. Neither have symptoms, never take a test. Bob and Charlie play baseball and soccer. Dave and Emery from these sports get COVID... but no idea where they got it from, because they weren't in class or in contact with Amy or anyone else who was sick.
So, my son's school... just quarantined the entire 7th grade - they were hybrid, but because the teachers were exposed, they had to move the entire grade to remote. "Maya" was notified that she was in close contact with one of the people that tested positive (3 cases in last 2 weeks). Maya is currently "not feeling well". Maya's brother, "Maurice", who is in elementary (full time) is riding around the neighborhood looking for kids to go play with him. Several do. I see them playing at the park. So... when Maurice's friends get COVID, will they realize the spread came from the middle school sibling? Probably not.
So many cases are "no idea where it came from" when the reality is, its asymptomatic people that have no clue they are spreading it.

I would add colleges returning, although I think that bars and restaurants play a big role. Bars and restaurants opened in most counties by the end of June. I found this article from July which showed that by July 20, the number of younger people (19-24 age group) was rising in some areas.

https://www.theintell.com/story/news/2020/07/20/coronavirus-cases-rising-in-southeast-pa-among-those-19-to-24/42051915/

By July 15, the Governor phased back the reopening by instituting new restrictions, including closing bars that don't serve food, limiting indoor gatherings to 25 and reducing restaurant capacity to 25%

https://www.fox43.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/pa-department-of-health-releases-information-on-covid-19-case-investigations-including-some-bars-and-restaurants-data/521-1651a052-02be-4f3b-a8d9-4a255668e556

Restrictions on bars and restaurants in Philadelphia continued through at least August. This article from July 23 also noted a concerning increase in cases associated with younger people crowding into bars and restaurants.

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/07/23/pennsylvania-health-officials-focued-on-reversing-trend-of-rising-covid-19-cases-in-state/

Here is a resource with a timeline for reopening decisions. Note that on September 21, restaurants were permitted to reopen at 50% capacity. Restrictions on large gathering were lifted a few weeks later.

https://ballotpedia.org/Documenting_Pennsylvania%27s_reopening_and_path_to_recovery_from_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020


PA's increase in cases started really accelerating after those restrictions were lifted. This is similar to what we have seen in Maryland where most schools did not reopen. You call tell me that it is schools and not bars or indoor dining, but there seems to be a pattern. Why are PA and Maryland the same, despite one state opening schools and the other keeping them closed?

Where I am is not Philadelphia (that is not a mid-sized city... and no rural areas in Philadelphia County). Plus a lot of Philadelphia schools have remained closed.
Where I am at, there's a few small colleges, nothing big... but I do agree, that plays a role.
The crowds in restaurants has remained the same. When counties moved to green initially in May & June, it was 50% occupancy. It was lowered to 25% July 16 - but I don't think it was ever enforced. I saw no change in the places I go to. The bar rule is that you have to serve food with alcohol. The ongoing joke is that you can get COVID drinking a beer... but not if you drink beer and eat a hamburger. I know places that will sell you a "food voucher" that counts as "serving food" so you can buy a beer.
There's also a hundred different ways to interpret the restrictions. Everyone is interpreting it the way they want.
The problem is, the government is trying to legislate things to influence or change behavior... and it's not working.
The "large gatherings" - it was after the fact. Hershey Park was open ALL SUMMER. So... large gatherings were already happening. The auto show received a "special" permit to still hold their large "gathering" over the summer. The Governor is actually taking a lot of heat for his special treatment of certain companies or activities.