Politics, not COVID rates, determined school openings
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Anonymous
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OP, you are stating the obvious. But another aspect is the "novel" aspect of this virus. Some studies show "x" while others studies show "opposite of x" and still another study is inconclusive. First kids didn't get sick or seem to spread it. Then wait, some do, and they can also get a severe reaction similar with a rash. Turns out children, particularly older children and teens, can spread it.
How can we say "let science decide" when the science is constantly evolving around this? I'm not saying ignore the studies or the science, but realize it is still "novel" with a lot of differing conclusions in thousands of studies. |
Anonymous
I reject the idea that there can be NO outbreaks in schools. That is a harmful standard, and it’s not recommended by any public health authority. |
Anonymous
So the default is to just deprive kids of their education, because we don't have 100% certainty? That's certainly not the way cultures with money (private school parents), cultures with a mission to educate (Catholics and some charters) and cultures that value education (Germany et al) are acting. This is a POLITICAL question. What you're getting at -- how to weigh decisions in a time of uncertainty -- was not done. Instead, politics ruled. That's the point. |
Anonymous
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For the record, here is what public health authorities actually say about reopening schools:
Children's Hospital of Pennsylvania: https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf Key points include that schools have reopened successfully where there is low community transmission (like DC in August) and "it appears that a higher case incidence might be tolerated for in-person learning in some settings—particularly for younger children—and with continued adherence to strong school safety plans. " In addition, CHOP states that "Most school-associated transmission has occurred outside of school or because of poor adherence to masking protocols. " Notably the poor masking was by the ADULT STAFF - not the kids. "Research Finds that the Risks of Reopening were Exaggerated" https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated Key point: "Despite widespread concerns, two new international studies show no consistent relationship between in-person K-12 schooling and the spread of the coronavirus. And a third study from the United States shows no elevated risk to childcare workers who stayed on the job." Finally, "Schools Need to be Bolder about Reopening" https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html Key points: Dr. Ahish Jha, dean of Brown School of Public Health, states "There’s no doubt in my mind that schools need to be bolder than they’re being. There is a large mental health cost to children. And we know this is going to very substantially widen the achievement gap between wealthier/white students and poorer/students of color. The effect is going to be felt for a very long time." |
Anonymous
NP. My observational data... I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy. State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside. My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks. July - averaged 19 new cases a day August - averaged 22 new cases a day September - averaged 17 new cases per day October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month. Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening. |
Anonymous
Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread. |
Anonymous
Or, I don't know. A drop in temperatures? More indoor unmasked indoor social activities? Trump rallies? I mean, you can say that, my the numbers in my county look pretty similar and no public schools are open. So if our numbers increased similarly, they maybe it isn't schools. |
Anonymous
BINGO. These decisions are not being made with careful consideration of local conditions and public health advice. |
Anonymous
Except it wasn't research. https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter. https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was: "we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)." In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time. So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't. |
Anonymous
Did your county numbers triple in 2 months? Temperatures did not drop until the last 2 weeks... and even then, not much. It was 70 degrees last weekend. Most people have been outdoors until daylight savings. Cases in November (since it is still the beginning of the month... and tests can take 2-6 days to come back) equals exposure in October. Trump rallies - eh, maybe. They were outdoors... but a lot of cheering and not a lot of masks. |
Anonymous
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Oh look, a study that shows the hybrid model helps at slowing the spread of COVID... sorry it doesn't agree with you, OP.
https://herald-review.com/news/state-and-regional/study-shows-hybrid-learning-is-effective-at-slowing-covid-spread-in-illinois-schools/article_88a21035-f93e-52dd-a682-85c57f941986.html |
Anonymous
Actually, both posters and the OP are probably right. First, the decision to reopen schools was mostly political, based on party affiliation and not on metrics. We can see this in states like Iowa, which set absolutely insanely high and dangerous metrics for reopening schools and then opened and kept them open as community spread increased. So not only did schools reopen, but due to a view of COVID risk, those areas that did reopen are likely much less conservative about reverting to virtual. On the other hand, here in the DMV, most districts did not reopen, or at least reopened only in part. We had the numbers to bring at least some students back into the classroom, but didn't. We now no longer have the numbers. The number of private schools in the DMV could not have driven the type of community spread we are seeing now. If the surge mirrors the surge where schools were open, then how can you say schools are driving the surge. In Maryland, we now have one of the higher infection rates in the country (we are 21st). That infection rate is higher that COVID hotspots like Wisconsin. In Georgia, where they reopened schools with much fanfare and what looked like not enough mask wearing, they have fewer daily cases than we do and a lower infection rate, although their positivity rate is slightly worse. Beyond the impact of reopening schools, because the decision to reopen is political, you can expert to see community behaviors that increase spread in those areas that reopened schools. In North Dakota, there is no mask mandate at all. That is going to drive cases up, with schools open or closed. And if schools are open and masks are not required, the North Dakota experience isn't going to tell us much. I don't think it safe to reopen now, and am almost convinced that we shouldn't try for the rest of this school year. However, based on what we are seeing now, it is hard to argue that schools are driving the surge. The vast majority of schools stayed closed and the surge happened anyway. |
Anonymous
| Politics are why we lifted the lock down in MD and interestingly enough they are putting more restrictions in place right after the elections. If we had strong politicians who care about everyones best interests we would have continued the restrictions and maybe had a better handle on things. |
Anonymous
There are no public schools open in my county. Very few privates open fully. Most use hybrid. The 7 day average case rate per 100,000 people on August 30 was 5.9. Today it is 22.3. So, no, the cases didn't double in a little over two months - they almost quadrupled with no public schools open. |
Anonymous
Right - you're smarter and better in formed than the dean of Public Health at Brown, the experts at CHOP, and numerous researchers world-wide. Oh, and you're also smarter than countless private school administrators and parents, as well as the leadership of the entire nation of Germany. But hey, I would welcome an actual, informed debate on this, but as you very well know, all we had was the teacher's unions screaming "IT'S NOT SAFE" in cities where all the wealthy white kids were going to private schools in person. |