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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.[/quote]

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this. [/quote]

That's impossible to know. What is possible to know is the COVID rates that go up when schools open. What a mystery, eh?[/quote]

Rates are also going up where schools are closed.  So what's your point?[/quote]
The issue is... what else changed? What stayed the same?
Some things you can account for. 
PA example - bars, restaurants, churches, sports - all open in June. Rates doubled from August & September to October... weather was still nice so no big surge of indoor activity... So what happened?
1. School resumed.
2. Labor Day parties, soccer tournaments, etc
Rates doubled again in November. Is it
1. school spread
2. Halloween parties
3. Trump rallies
4. Less daylight = more indoor activity
OR
5. all of the above
Honestly, contact tracing with no testing does very little when it comes to people being asymptomatic but possibly spreading. Possible scenario: Amy had COVID and was in class with Bob and Charlie. Neither have symptoms, never take a test.  Bob and Charlie play baseball and soccer.  Dave and Emery from these sports get COVID... but no idea where they got it from, because they weren't in class or in contact with Amy or anyone else who was sick.  
So, my son's school... just quarantined the entire 7th grade - they were hybrid, but because the teachers were exposed, they had to move the entire grade to remote. "Maya" was notified that she was in close contact with one of the people that tested positive (3 cases in last 2 weeks). Maya is currently "not feeling well". Maya's brother, "Maurice", who is in elementary (full time) is riding around the neighborhood looking for kids to go play with him. Several do. I see them playing at the park. So... when Maurice's friends get COVID, will they realize the spread came from the middle school sibling? Probably not. 
So many cases are "no idea where it came from" when the reality is, its asymptomatic people that have no clue they are spreading it.[/quote]

I would add colleges returning, although I think that bars and restaurants play a big role. Bars and restaurants opened in most counties by the end of June. I found this article from July which showed that by July 20, the number of younger people (19-24 age group) was rising in some areas.

[url]https://www.theintell.com/story/news/2020/07/20/coronavirus-cases-rising-in-southeast-pa-among-those-19-to-24/42051915/[/url]

By July 15, the Governor phased back the reopening by instituting new restrictions, including closing bars that don't serve food, limiting indoor gatherings to 25 and reducing restaurant capacity to 25%

[url]https://www.fox43.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/pa-department-of-health-releases-information-on-covid-19-case-investigations-including-some-bars-and-restaurants-data/521-1651a052-02be-4f3b-a8d9-4a255668e556[/url]

Restrictions on bars and restaurants in Philadelphia continued through at least August.  This article from July 23 also noted a concerning increase in cases associated with younger people crowding into bars and restaurants.

[url]https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/07/23/pennsylvania-health-officials-focued-on-reversing-trend-of-rising-covid-19-cases-in-state/[/url]

Here is a resource with a timeline for reopening decisions. Note that on September 21, restaurants were permitted to reopen at 50% capacity. Restrictions on large gathering were lifted a few weeks later.

[url]https://ballotpedia.org/Documenting_Pennsylvania%27s_reopening_and_path_to_recovery_from_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020[/url]

PA's increase in cases started really accelerating after those restrictions were lifted. This is similar to what we have seen in Maryland where most schools did not reopen. You call tell me that it is schools and not bars or indoor dining, but there seems to be a pattern. Why are PA and Maryland the same, despite one state opening schools and the other keeping them closed?[/quote]
Where I am is not Philadelphia (that is not a mid-sized city... and no rural areas in Philadelphia County).  Plus a lot of Philadelphia schools have remained closed.
Where I am at, there's a few small colleges, nothing big... but I do agree, that plays a role.
The crowds in restaurants has remained the same.   When counties moved to green initially in May & June, it was 50% occupancy.  It was lowered to 25% July 16 - but I don't think it was ever enforced. I saw no change in the places I go to. The bar rule is that you have to serve food with alcohol. The ongoing joke is that you can get COVID drinking a beer... but not if you drink beer and eat a hamburger. I know places that will sell you a "food voucher" that counts as "serving food" so you can buy a beer.  :roll: 
There's also a hundred different ways to interpret the restrictions.  Everyone is interpreting it the way they want. 
The problem is, the government is trying to legislate things to influence or change behavior... and it's not working.
The "large gatherings" - it was after the fact.  Hershey Park was open ALL SUMMER. So...  large gatherings were already happening. The auto show received a "special" permit to still hold their large "gathering" over the summer.  The Governor is actually taking a lot of heat for his special treatment of certain companies or activities.[/quote]

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