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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.[/quote]

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this. [/quote]
NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania.  County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March.  Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June.  The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June.  Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy. 
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online.  One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.  
July - averaged 19 new cases a day  
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.  [/quote]

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.  [/quote]
 Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter. 
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was: 
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't. 
[/quote]

Actually, both posters and the OP are probably right. First, the decision to reopen schools was mostly political, based on party affiliation and not on metrics. We can see this in states like Iowa, which set absolutely insanely high and dangerous metrics for reopening schools and then opened and kept them open as community spread increased. So not only did schools reopen, but due to a view of COVID risk, those areas that did reopen are likely much less conservative about reverting to virtual.

On the other hand, here in the DMV, most districts did not reopen, or at least reopened only in part. We had the  numbers to bring at least some students back into the classroom, but didn't. We  now no longer have the numbers. The number of private schools in the DMV could not  have driven the type of community spread we are seeing now. If the surge mirrors the surge where schools were open, then how can you say schools are driving the surge.

In Maryland, we now have one of the higher infection rates in the country (we are 21st).  That infection rate is higher that COVID hotspots like Wisconsin. In Georgia, where they reopened schools with much fanfare and what looked like not enough mask wearing, they have fewer daily cases than we do and a lower infection rate, although their positivity rate is slightly worse.

Beyond the impact of reopening schools, because the decision to reopen is political, you can expert to see community behaviors that increase spread in those areas that reopened schools. In North Dakota, there is no mask mandate at all. That is going to drive cases up, with schools open or closed. And if schools are open and masks are not required, the North Dakota experience isn't going to tell us much.

I don't think it safe to reopen now, and am almost convinced that we shouldn't try for the rest of this school year. However, based on what we are seeing now, it is hard to argue that schools are driving the surge. The vast majority of schools stayed closed and the surge happened anyway.[/quote]
I agree that the decisions have all been politically motivated, and scientifically "informed" by cherry picking whatever study fits.  
Honestly, until October I supported return to full time instruction. Then I watched the numbers as they climbed. And now - I think they should go remote until after the holidays.  
My district hasn't followed its own plan. And now, it is defying the Dept of Health and PA Dept Education recommendation because "its no worse than flu for the kids." Right now, PA is letting local jurisdictions make the call. But if they continue to resist the recommendation and numbers continue to climb... it will be a mandate. 
[/quote]

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