Study shows "Reopening schools associated with a 24% increase in R (spread)"; 2nd-largest effect
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Anonymous
We're long past "nuance." Anyone who wanted nuance should have isolated for real back in the spring, for long enough actually to curb the spread. I guess it was a nuanced decision to reopen businesses etc. as early as we did. That worked out just great. |
Anonymous
I'm blaming the fact that EVERYONE, not just parents, did not take this pandemic seriously from the start, and yes, I blame parents who have continued to go on vacations, see relatives, pretend that podding is "safe" for all involved, keep shopping in person unnecessarily, etc. They are creating a world where their own kids and the kids of others have had to stay home and do DL because they spent summer choosing to do unnecessary things. Now they say their kids must go to school in person. If they'd wanted that so badly they should have used their brains in the spring and summer and advocated for real lockdowns then, to ensure schools could open safely now. |
Anonymous
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This study is not very meaningful. It makes a lot of generalizations without real data points to support the conclusion. There is a big difference between correlation and causation.
This study does not offer comparison or distinction of whether the schools that reopened used appropriate safety measures. Were the kids in cohorts that did not mix, were they masked, were they 6 feet apart, are they allowing school sports, are there testing protocols? Some schools have opened with strict safety protocols and others have opened with none or minimal. This makes a huge difference in determining whether reopening contributes to spread. Were there outbreaks associated with opening elementary schools, middle schools, or high schools? There is a difference in likelihood of transmission for older kids vs. younger kids. What was the rate of community spread that existed before the schools opened? I have relatives in Wisconsin that are attending school in-person with high rates of community spread and very little safety protocols. It would be reasonable to see how this contributes to spread. This is a different comparison to schools that reopen at times when community spread is low and safety protocols are strictly enforced. You can't look at the data across all of these countries without more specifics and then make a sweeping generalization that reopening schools contributes to spread. That is not how science works. |
Anonymous
| It's just a fascinating lack of concern for parents who work (often in person) and have young kids and can't afford to have nannies/tutors/whatever. This is true for a wide swath of parents, particularly singe mothers. |
Anonymous
Thank you PP. Mine was the post the person was responding to, and what is galling to me is dismissing the pain of parents who are watching previously happy and healthy kids slowly deteriorate into shells of their former selves. I say this as a parent of one child with diagnosed "special needs." I understand that that means. But that's not the kid I am most worried about now. We are approaching 8 months of kids being forced to give up their lives, and concern about the overall health of kids is no longer hypothetical. Some of us are doing the right thing every day, not socializing, not traveling, and watching our kids suffer because of it. It hurts like hell. |
Anonymous
And I commented on the first one (described in the title), noting the limitations *the authors themselves* describe. Crickets. I also discussed the peer reviewed studies mentioned in this thread. Also: zero substantive commentary, just name-calling. Come back when you can tell me why viral load is a robust proxy for transmission. |
Anonymous
So they didn't find any reductions due to closing schools, but did find increases from opening them? I don't understand that. |
Anonymous
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This was an interesting study, though as the study itself acknowledges, they couldn't establish any sort of causal relationship.
A challenge with looking at interventions is that their effects are cumulative. The study indicated that school closures were among the last interventions to be lifted- only public events and international travel were restarted after schools were reopened. So they weren't just measuring impact of reopening schools- they were, effectively, measuring the impact of reopening schools alongside businesses being open, gatherings of >10 people being allowed, and limitations on internal travel being removed. They study also didn't make any attempt to account for the compounding effects of multiple interventions being placed or lifted in the 28-day periods that they studied. It's interesting that they sort of tried to look at this for *placing* interventions. Table 2 looked at the impact of placing 4 different sets of interventions. But they didn't try to do anything similar for lifting them. What's also interesting is that they never attempted to control for all interventions besides school closures. For example, when they looked at groups of interventions , they groups school closures with stay-at-home orders (see Table 2). It's a good study, and certainly should be part of the discussion on reopening. But it is far from definitive on the effect of school reopenings. |
Anonymous
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There was a very large scale study in UK that found minimal transmission in schools. This study involved testing students and teachers for weeks at hundreds of schools. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/study-finds-very-low-numbers-of-covid-19-outbreaks-in-schools
German study https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-07-13/german-study-shows-low-coronavirus-infection-rate-in-schools More from Germany https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-schools-germany/2020/09/10/309648a4-eedf-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html Brown University study. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/517787-study-less-than-one-percent-of-teachers-students Studies of Spanish and uS data finding low transmission in schools. https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated Ireland. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7268273/ This is just one quick google search, there are other studies showing the same. |
Anonymous
The nuance that's lost is that this person is conflating the people doing one thing with the people that want another. The comment makes the assumption that if PARENTS want their kids to go back to in-person learning, then they should stay home, and that they aren't doing so. Now I imagine there are parents that are out doing things that you think create unnecessary risk, but there are also the "DL forever!" parents who are completely locked down. There's also the mighty band of non-parents who are doing whatever. Parents as a group hardly have control over the spread, or the government response. Actually, I don't think that's just nuance that's lost. I think it's just a logical flaw in the argument. |
Anonymous
Viral load studies do not tell you how many transmissions are likely to occur. It's expected to be correlated, but how strongly isn't clear, and depends on many other factors. But the bigger issue with the viral load studies is that they were only looking at kids that showed up at hospitals or urgent cares with severe symptoms. That would lead to a strong selection bias if, for instance, children need a higher viral load to get sick. And that's quite possible, since it is widely believed that children are much more likely to have mild symptoms than adults. Here's the study that looked actual transmissions, where they found that children under 10 were much less likely to transmit the virus compared to adults. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article |
Anonymous
| This is America where money and freedom reign. Schools could open safely if 1) the government shut down any other large gatherings in any location 2) the government propped up those families and businesses that are suffering financially. That won’t happen because the almighty dollar and people’s rights come first. |
Anonymous
Most schools are open. Just not here and even then, most private and parochial schools are open. |
Anonymous
Governor Northam told schools to open this summer. Capitalism is not the problem, nor are restaurants. Not now. |
Anonymous
Of course they are. They would lose students and money if they weren’t. Money, money, money. |