Study shows "Reopening schools associated with a 24% increase in R (spread)"; 2nd-largest effect

[Anonymous]

Study of effect of imposing and lifting #COVID19 measures in 131 countries. Reopening schools was associated with a 24% increase in the reproduction number (R) after 28 days. This was the second-largest increase, after lifting bans of gatherings (25%).

[Anonymous]

Let me be clear here: research on this topic is unclear and contradictory right now.

We DO NOT KNOW for sure that opening schools is either completely safe, or bad. There are mixed results.

Therefore, standard science approach is: be cautious.

[Anonymous]

This paper is from the Lancet:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext

Here's the key text

790 phases from 131 countries were included in the analysis. A decreasing trend over time in the R ratio was found following the introduction of school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the reduction in R ranged from 3% to 24% on day 28 following the introduction compared with the last day before introduction, although the reduction was significant only for public events ban (R ratio 0·76, 95% CI 0·58–1·00); for all other NPIs, the upper bound of the 95% CI was above 1. An increasing trend over time in the R ratio was found following the relaxation of school closure, bans on public events, bans on public gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the increase in R ranged from 11% to 25% on day 28 following the relaxation compared with the last day before relaxation, although the increase was significant only for school reopening (R ratio 1·24, 95% CI 1·00–1·52) and lifting bans on public gatherings of more than ten people (1·25, 1·03–1·51); for all other NPIs, the lower bound of the 95% CI was below 1.

[Anonymous]

Not at all surprised. Then you have mom groups refusing to test because they’re desperate for childcare for their packs of kids.

[Anonymous]

I have some sympathy for people who need childcare. Working parents need childcare!

The problem is that there are no good options.

Because Trump, and the Republican Party, screwed up the COVID response. At best. (At worst they sabotaged it intentionally for political advantage.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have some sympathy for people who need childcare. Working parents need childcare!

The problem is that there are no good options.

Because Trump, and the Republican Party, screwed up the COVID response. At best. (At worst they sabotaged it intentionally for political advantage.)

Except its not all working parents. The majority of Utah moms are SAHMs. Is it the community's problem that they decided they needed 4-9 kids and suddenly realized they're overwhelmed if they have to take care of them themselves M-F?

With just 53 percent of married mothers in the workforce, Utah has the highest percent of stay-at-home moms in the country.

https://www.deseret.com/2009/10/4/20344263/utah-bucks-national-trend-against-stay-at-home-moms

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Let me be clear here: research on this topic is unclear and contradictory right now.

We DO NOT KNOW for sure that opening schools is either completely safe, or bad. There are mixed results.

Therefore, standard science approach is: be cautious.

Right, so we have some clear evidence now with a study and you're still going to say it doesn't spread?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have some sympathy for people who need childcare. Working parents need childcare!

The problem is that there are no good options.

Because Trump, and the Republican Party, screwed up the COVID response. At best. (At worst they sabotaged it intentionally for political advantage.)

School is for education, not child care. Child care is a bonus. Need child care, pay for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Study of effect of imposing and lifting #COVID19 measures in 131 countries. Reopening schools was associated with a 24% increase in the reproduction number (R) after 28 days. This was the second-largest increase, after lifting bans of gatherings (25%).

Staff member at a Loudon ES tested positive last week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have some sympathy for people who need childcare. Working parents need childcare!

The problem is that there are no good options.

Because Trump, and the Republican Party, screwed up the COVID response. At best. (At worst they sabotaged it intentionally for political advantage.)

You're ignoring the threads about massive numbers of HS failing or barely passing classes. DL isn't education. DL isn't working.

The question is, do we care?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Study of effect of imposing and lifting #COVID19 measures in 131 countries. Reopening schools was associated with a 24% increase in the reproduction number (R) after 28 days. This was the second-largest increase, after lifting bans of gatherings (25%).

Any differentiation made between high schools and elementary schools in this study?

My understanding was that high schoolers are a bigger vector for spread than young children.

It might be there is less spread associated with grades preK-2, exactly the ages that need in person care the most.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Study of effect of imposing and lifting #COVID19 measures in 131 countries. Reopening schools was associated with a 24% increase in the reproduction number (R) after 28 days. This was the second-largest increase, after lifting bans of gatherings (25%).

Any differentiation made between high schools and elementary schools in this study?

My understanding was that high schoolers are a bigger vector for spread than young children.

It might be there is less spread associated with grades preK-2, exactly the ages that need in person care the most.

Nope, younger kids are carriers of higher viral loads and majority asymptomatic.

[Anonymous]

I have some sympathy for people who need childcare. Working parents need childcare!

The problem is that there are no good options.

Because Trump, and the Republican Party, screwed up the COVID response. At best. (At worst they sabotaged it intentionally for political advantage.)


School is for education, not child care. Child care is a bonus. Need child care, pay for it.

Except there is no affordable child care for people in my situation (older child with disabilities, but not enough to be in a self-contained classroom). People didn't budget for needing a full time personal nanny for a year, because they had no idea that a pandemic was coming. I could afford group care for him, similar to what is available for younger kids, but there is none.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have some sympathy for people who need childcare. Working parents need childcare!

The problem is that there are no good options.

Because Trump, and the Republican Party, screwed up the COVID response. At best. (At worst they sabotaged it intentionally for political advantage.)

You're ignoring the threads about massive numbers of HS failing or barely passing classes. DL isn't education. DL isn't working.

The question is, do we care?

NP. "Massive numbers" failing or barely passing? Please cite a source other than anecdotes on threads here. Actual numbers from actual schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Study of effect of imposing and lifting #COVID19 measures in 131 countries. Reopening schools was associated with a 24% increase in the reproduction number (R) after 28 days. This was the second-largest increase, after lifting bans of gatherings (25%).

Any differentiation made between high schools and elementary schools in this study?

My understanding was that high schoolers are a bigger vector for spread than young children.

It might be there is less spread associated with grades preK-2, exactly the ages that need in person care the most.

"My understanding"?

Again: Please post links to articles or reputable studies for this claim re: HS versus K-2. I doubt there's been enough time for any deep-dive, extensive studies in the US just yet but would be glad to read about them if you have a reputable source. Seriously.

But...Mere anecdotes on DCUM and in the neighborhood are not evidence of anything other than what people wish were true and what fits people's preferred narratives. Reposting personal "understandings" here is simply "I heard it around town"-level gossip.