Reply to Study shows "Reopening schools associated with a 24% increase in R (spread)"; 2nd-largest effect

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Reply to "Study shows "Reopening schools associated with a 24% increase in R (spread)"; 2nd-largest effect"

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[quote=Anonymous]This was an interesting study, though as the study itself acknowledges, they couldn't establish any sort of causal relationship.

A challenge with looking at interventions is that their effects are cumulative.  The study indicated that school closures were among the last interventions to be lifted- only public events and international travel were restarted after schools were reopened.  So they weren't just measuring impact of reopening schools- they were, effectively, measuring the impact of reopening schools alongside businesses being open, gatherings of >10 people being allowed, and limitations on internal travel being removed.

They study also didn't make any attempt to account for the compounding effects of multiple interventions being placed or lifted in the 28-day periods that they studied.

It's interesting that they sort of tried to look at this for *placing* interventions.  Table 2 looked at the impact of placing 4 different sets of interventions.  But they didn't try to do anything similar for lifting them.

What's also interesting is that they never attempted to control for all interventions besides school closures.  For example, when they looked at groups of interventions , they groups school closures with stay-at-home orders (see Table 2).

It's a good study, and certainly should be part of the discussion on reopening.  But it is far from definitive on the effect of school reopenings.[/quote]

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