Reply to Study shows "Reopening schools associated with a 24% increase in R (spread)"; 2nd-largest effect

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Reply to "Study shows "Reopening schools associated with a 24% increase in R (spread)"; 2nd-largest effect"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]If the study can’t account for masks/other simple precautions that work, then it’s useless. We know that large groups of people indoors with no precautions spread diseases.

[b]We also know that children spread COVID less than they do other diseases and less than adults spread it. [/b]We also know that children rarely fall seriously from COVID. We also know that failing to educate children for a year or more will irreversible harm many of them, especially the most vulnerable.

Many people are starting to think that means closing schools is more dangerous than opening them. That’s doesn’t make us dumb or crazy, even if you weigh the risks differently. [/quote]

Studies show the exact opposite. Kids in fact carry higher viral loads than adults and contribute more to community spread precisely because they are not adversely effected by the virus.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1296453662022291457[/twitter]

[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef3r1kgUYAAVtet?format=jpg&name=large[/img]

https://www.jpeds.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0022-3476%2820%2931023-4[/quote]

Viral load studies do not tell you how many transmissions are likely to occur.  It's expected to be correlated, but how strongly isn't clear, and depends on many other factors.  But the bigger issue with the viral load studies is that they were only looking at kids that showed up at hospitals or urgent cares with severe symptoms.  That would lead to a strong selection bias if, for instance, children need a higher viral load to get sick.  And that's quite possible, since it is widely believed that children are much more likely to have mild symptoms than adults.

Here's the study that looked actual transmissions, where they found that children under 10 were much less likely to transmit the virus compared to adults.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article[/quote]

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