The future of Russia. Any foreign policy experts want to weigh in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As mentioned above the Russia-Ukraine conflict will grind forward to a stalemate next year with Russia annexing a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine. Western support for Ukraine will wane, leaving the situation pretty much as is.

Russia will then declare "victory" and retreat inward, occasionally rattling sabers with provocative language but otherwise relying on existing infrastructure and Chinese investment to lick their wounds for the next 10 years. At that point they will have rebuilt their military , and will either renew the war with Ukraine, or invade another non-NATO country.

Stalemate and Russia annexing a significant portion of eastern Ukraine aren’t the same thing.

I’ve analyzed Russian politics and foreign policy on a professional level for 10 years and studied Russia on an undergraduate and graduate level. So in one capacity or another, I’ve analyzed this country since 2005.

The reality is that NO ONE knows what will happen with Russia in 6 months, much less 10 years.

The only thing I think is relatively safe to say is that we will not see a Russian leader who is willing to accept a weakened Russia, vis a vis the US and China. How any given Russian leader chooses to strengthen Russia will dictate how Russia impacts the rest of the world.

Outside of that, it’s anyone’s guess.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.

I know people like to throw around these scenarios, but they’re kinda ridiculous. You all have watched too many movies and clearly don’t know anything about Kadyrov or Prigozhin beyond what you read in a couple news articles.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.

I know people like to throw around these scenarios, but they’re kinda ridiculous. You all have watched too many movies and clearly don’t know anything about Kadyrov or Prigozhin beyond what you read in a couple news articles.

Actually, no. I actually have written articles about Prigozhin and his involvement with PMCs and the Internet Research Agency. And I also am quite familiar with Kadyrov, Chechnya, Chechen politics from 1991 to present, and Russian Federation internal politics in general. The scenarios talked about in this thread are no more ridiculous than the current situation Russia is in, which is pretty ridiculous. If you actually think the points made are ridiculous, then what do you see as realistic? There is no "normalcy" in Russia, never has been. At least look at the last 30 years and notice how many extremely "ridiculous" events have happened. Some points made may be facetious, but not entirely out of the realm of possibility. It would be more ridiculous if you asserted with 100% confidence what will happen in Russia in 10 years. That's why everyone in this thread is just speculating and we should all realize that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.

I know people like to throw around these scenarios, but they’re kinda ridiculous. You all have watched too many movies and clearly don’t know anything about Kadyrov or Prigozhin beyond what you read in a couple news articles.

Actually, no. I actually have written articles about Prigozhin and his involvement with PMCs and the Internet Research Agency. And I also am quite familiar with Kadyrov, Chechnya, Chechen politics from 1991 to present, and Russian Federation internal politics in general. The scenarios talked about in this thread are no more ridiculous than the current situation Russia is in, which is pretty ridiculous. If you actually think the points made are ridiculous, then what do you see as realistic? There is no "normalcy" in Russia, never has been. At least look at the last 30 years and notice how many extremely "ridiculous" events have happened. Some points made may be facetious, but not entirely out of the realm of possibility. It would be more ridiculous if you asserted with 100% confidence what will happen in Russia in 10 years. That's why everyone in this thread is just speculating and we should all realize that.

I’m the person who said no one knows what will happen in 6 months, much less 10 years.

I also have a feeling I know where you work. Be careful posting on here.

[Anonymous]

One thing we do know is Russia is undergoing demographic decline. This is even more significant for a country with both a large land mass and a large military industrial complex that needs to be maintained. These factors alone guarantee at minimum a gradual decline in both economic and military strength.

The effect of the war and emigration will also factor in negatively long term. Good chance the war is leading to a decline in fertility. Also depends how sticky emigrants will be, but all will not return.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One thing we do know is Russia is undergoing demographic decline. This is even more significant for a country with both a large land mass and a large military industrial complex that needs to be maintained. These factors alone guarantee at minimum a gradual decline in both economic and military strength.

The effect of the war and emigration will also factor in negatively long term. Good chance the war is leading to a decline in fertility. Also depends how sticky emigrants will be, but all will not return.

So why do they need more land? Makes no sense.

[Anonymous]

And who are they going to get to fight with them in the future? The Ukrainians they just went to war with? How many people are they losing with this war? For what purpose? Is Ukrainian land so valuable to them?

[Anonymous]

I am Russian but have lived in the US for over a decade
I still have family there so I visit regularly and have been going even after the invasion (it’s become much more expensive and cumbersome fyi)
My guess is that Russia will be Iran on steroids. A geriatric regime, extremely conservative and on the brink of dictatorship (but not to the extent of North Korea). The economy will be militarized (the so called mobilization economy), people won’t starve and will be able to move freely (finances permitting). However there will be no innovation and not much vibrancy if you know what I mean. However there is a rich legacy of kitchen cultural life from the soviet times, as well as post soviet cultural renaissance, so it not going to be all doom and gloom.
Yes there will be brain drain but also there will be a sufficient number of technically talented people who are believers and can keep the austere military economy afloat. And there is a certain taste for overcoming difficulties in the “genes” of the population.
As for the war, it will be a slow churn, one step forward and two steps back. I feel bad for the annexed regions and their population. They will suffer no matter the outcome.
Some parts of Russia might be under shelling too (some already are but I mean cities and not just Belgorod).
Basically, there will be life but no one without ties to Russia will want to live a life like that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And who are they going to get to fight with them in the future? The Ukrainians they just went to war with? How many people are they losing with this war? For what purpose? Is Ukrainian land so valuable to them?

Even their own CSTO "allies" want nothing to do with the Ukraine shitshow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As mentioned above the Russia-Ukraine conflict will grind forward to a stalemate next year with Russia annexing a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine. Western support for Ukraine will wane, leaving the situation pretty much as is.

Russia will then declare "victory" and retreat inward, occasionally rattling sabers with provocative language but otherwise relying on existing infrastructure and Chinese investment to lick their wounds for the next 10 years. At that point they will have rebuilt their military , and will either renew the war with Ukraine, or invade another non-NATO country.

Stalemate and Russia annexing a significant portion of eastern Ukraine aren’t the same thing.

I’ve analyzed Russian politics and foreign policy on a professional level for 10 years and studied Russia on an undergraduate and graduate level. So in one capacity or another, I’ve analyzed this country since 2005.

The reality is that NO ONE knows what will happen with Russia in 6 months, much less 10 years.

The only thing I think is relatively safe to say is that we will not see a Russian leader who is willing to accept a weakened Russia, vis a vis the US and China. How any given Russian leader chooses to strengthen Russia will dictate how Russia impacts the rest of the world.

Outside of that, it’s anyone’s guess.

Whether they like it or not, whether they acknowledge it or not, their current leader is doing exactly that - significantly weakening Russia vis-a-vis US and China. Russia's military capabilities have been significantly degraded and Russia is putting itself in hock to China. And the Russian nationalist hawks who think Putin isn't doing enough with regard to Ukraine would only accelerate it even more.

Russia needs to change course, because it is headed toward complete implosion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Given their demographics and economy, they will be a quiet, irrelevant, but well-off backwater once Putin kicks it.

With 15,600 nuclear warheads.


Sure.

These things are incredibly cost and labor expensive to maintain, and the last year has shown us that Russian grift has really gutted their military. I wonder how many warheads are in any state of operational readiness.

Yes, this is one of the most interesting questions of late. I wish there were some way know, but I doubt we ever will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.

I know people like to throw around these scenarios, but they’re kinda ridiculous. You all have watched too many movies and clearly don’t know anything about Kadyrov or Prigozhin beyond what you read in a couple news articles.

I am not that poster, but you are being a bit dismissive. Russia is an authoritarian state. As such, Putin holds power by either befriending or intimidating a select number of powerful people. He successfully booted out the first generation of oligarchs, installing loyalists, and jailing dissidents. He put key assets in the hands of people he trusted to be loyal. But there are limits to that. They have their own interests. At the end of the day, if enough of them get together and decide that Putin is bad for business, for their lifestyle, etc. then he could be forced out. If he didn't need to threaten these people, there wouldn't be so many of them falling out of windows right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.

I know people like to throw around these scenarios, but they’re kinda ridiculous. You all have watched too many movies and clearly don’t know anything about Kadyrov or Prigozhin beyond what you read in a couple news articles.

I am not that poster, but you are being a bit dismissive. Russia is an authoritarian state. As such, Putin holds power by either befriending or intimidating a select number of powerful people. He successfully booted out the first generation of oligarchs, installing loyalists, and jailing dissidents. He put key assets in the hands of people he trusted to be loyal. But there are limits to that. They have their own interests. At the end of the day, if enough of them get together and decide that Putin is bad for business, for their lifestyle, etc. then he could be forced out. If he didn't need to threaten these people, there wouldn't be so many of them falling out of windows right now.

I get all of that. I just would not put my money on Kadyrov making a national power play. Prigozhin is slightly more likely, but I’d still put my money on other people above those two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Given their demographics and economy, they will be a quiet, irrelevant, but well-off backwater once Putin kicks it.

With 15,600 nuclear warheads.


Sure.

These things are incredibly cost and labor expensive to maintain, and the last year has shown us that Russian grift has really gutted their military. I wonder how many warheads are in any state of operational readiness.

This! They also don’t train younger generations to maintain. Additionally, there is no one tapped to follow Putin. He’s been killing off bureaucrats/technocrats/oligarchs. They’ve been drafting old men to fight. Russia is horribly equipped. It’s like during the World Wars when a group of Russian soldiers were sent into battle without guns and expected to steal the opponent’s guns when they die.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.