Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Also, plenty of people cared about what was happening in Syria and Chechnya. We deployed troops to Syria — did you forget?

And we worked with the Russians to make sure that we kept our distance from each other. Aside from us massacring some of their little green men, they were content to let us kill ISIS and we were content to let them bomb cities.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

because gutlessness and spinelessness of the Sheeple are the definers of History just as much as it is shaped by megalomaniac dictators ( Hitler, Stalin )

The 21st Century has many modern advances, but in many ways it is a " wash and repeat " of the 20th century or the 18th century or the .... just pick.

Sickening to watch, isn't it.

PP is dead on: the time is ripe for ANY European country leader to step into this vacuum and become a world leader. Maybe the UK ... maybe Zelensky was invited to Parliament to prime the British public for what an ambitious Boris would like to do: seize all capital assets in the UK for UK treasury and restore the British Empire....AND keep practicing his Churhill hand gestures ...

Reluctance... it's the possibility of this war going nuclear. At this point I'm not sure we can trust Putin to have the judgement to keep his finger off the button.

The western countries don’t want nuclear war with Russia. Sadly, if Ukraine is obliterated, it would still be a small percentage of the life lost and world devastation that a nuclear war would bring. Hopefully neither happens and Ukraine can negotiate something with Russia. They aren’t going to win a ground war, so they have to do something besides beg other countries to step in. No one is going to, in any meaningful way.

Analysts have said it would take 500k Russian troops to actually occupy Ukraine.

No it is closer to 880k and that is combat or police units.

Russia will never successfully occupy the whole country of Ukraine.

Not even clear they can control any of the major cities for a prolonged period of time.

They can probably encircle and lay siege to a city long enough to kill people by starvation but not sure that is allowed by modern international law?

I doubt Putin wanted to occupy Ukraine. He was expecting surrender followed by a puppet government. Control and corruption without the responsibility of governing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Moreover, the primary LNG pipeline from Russia to China—Power of Siberia—wasn’t even completed until 2019.

What would it take for motivated dissidents/saboteurs to, say, blow up a critical compressor station?

Huh? What fantasy world do you live in? Are you interested in in actual discussion, or do you want to write a Tom Clancy novel?

Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but there have already been a few mysterious explosions at some key Russian facilities over the last year.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of “saboteurs.” Might want to take your discussion to the entertainment/pop culture forum.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of "Let us not hear about dissidents! Russia is righteous! Ukrainians are Nazis with biological weapons plotting with NATO to attack Russia! Russia is not targeting civilians! Anything to the contrary is WESTERN FAKE NEWS!"

Huh? I never said anything even close to that. I’m responding fully to the fact that it’s sort of ridiculous to think that dissidents could blow up a power compressor of a major LNG pipeline.

Russia's security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

It's starting to get ugly for Putin.

Yup. The world has spoken. If you want to be an aggressive invader in 2022 you will be a pariah.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moreover, the primary LNG pipeline from Russia to China—Power of Siberia—wasn’t even completed until 2019.

What would it take for motivated dissidents/saboteurs to, say, blow up a critical compressor station?

Huh? What fantasy world do you live in? Are you interested in in actual discussion, or do you want to write a Tom Clancy novel?

Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but there have already been a few mysterious explosions at some key Russian facilities over the last year.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of “saboteurs.” Might want to take your discussion to the entertainment/pop culture forum.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of "Let us not hear about dissidents! Russia is righteous! Ukrainians are Nazis with biological weapons plotting with NATO to attack Russia! Russia is not targeting civilians! Anything to the contrary is WESTERN FAKE NEWS!"

Huh? I never said anything even close to that. I’m responding fully to the fact that it’s sort of ridiculous to think that dissidents could blow up a power compressor of a major LNG pipeline.

Russia's security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

It's starting to get ugly for Putin.

Yup. The world has spoken. If you want to be an aggressive invader in 2022 you will be a pariah.

The headline is so inaccurate. State propagandists did not disavow Putin at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moreover, the primary LNG pipeline from Russia to China—Power of Siberia—wasn’t even completed until 2019.

What would it take for motivated dissidents/saboteurs to, say, blow up a critical compressor station?

Huh? What fantasy world do you live in? Are you interested in in actual discussion, or do you want to write a Tom Clancy novel?

Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but there have already been a few mysterious explosions at some key Russian facilities over the last year.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of “saboteurs.” Might want to take your discussion to the entertainment/pop culture forum.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of "Let us not hear about dissidents! Russia is righteous! Ukrainians are Nazis with biological weapons plotting with NATO to attack Russia! Russia is not targeting civilians! Anything to the contrary is WESTERN FAKE NEWS!"

Huh? I never said anything even close to that. I’m responding fully to the fact that it’s sort of ridiculous to think that dissidents could blow up a power compressor of a major LNG pipeline.

Russia's security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

It's starting to get ugly for Putin.

Yup. The world has spoken. If you want to be an aggressive invader in 2022 you will be a pariah.

The headline is so inaccurate. State propagandists did not disavow Putin at all.

DP. They disavowed the strategy and the idea of taking or denazifying Ukraine. They openly espoused packing up and immediately going home

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

because gutlessness and spinelessness of the Sheeple are the definers of History just as much as it is shaped by megalomaniac dictators ( Hitler, Stalin )

The 21st Century has many modern advances, but in many ways it is a " wash and repeat " of the 20th century or the 18th century or the .... just pick.

Sickening to watch, isn't it.

PP is dead on: the time is ripe for ANY European country leader to step into this vacuum and become a world leader. Maybe the UK ... maybe Zelensky was invited to Parliament to prime the British public for what an ambitious Boris would like to do: seize all capital assets in the UK for UK treasury and restore the British Empire....AND keep practicing his Churhill hand gestures ...

Reluctance... it's the possibility of this war going nuclear. At this point I'm not sure we can trust Putin to have the judgement to keep his finger off the button.

The western countries don’t want nuclear war with Russia. Sadly, if Ukraine is obliterated, it would still be a small percentage of the life lost and world devastation that a nuclear war would bring. Hopefully neither happens and Ukraine can negotiate something with Russia. They aren’t going to win a ground war, so they have to do something besides beg other countries to step in. No one is going to, in any meaningful way.

Analysts have said it would take 500k Russian troops to actually occupy Ukraine.

No it is closer to 880k and that is combat or police units.

Russia will never successfully occupy the whole country of Ukraine.

Not even clear they can control any of the major cities for a prolonged period of time.

They can probably encircle and lay siege to a city long enough to kill people by starvation but not sure that is allowed by modern international law?

Nobody's worried about Putin invading Ukraine. He can't, unless he uses nuclear weapons, which we think he's not prepared to do. But we are all gravely concerned about the tens of thousands of civilians he is perfectly prepared to murder, with medieval tactics like sieges, simply because he cannot bear to lose face.

And what's that about "modern international law"? Are you stupid or 5 years old? In your wildest dreams, did Putin ever care about that? Hello?!?!?! He has perpetrated the same horrors in Chechnya and Syria, except that because it was on Muslims further away from Europe, nobody cared.

Umm … Putin already invaded Ukraine.

You know what I meant. Controlling the entire country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moreover, the primary LNG pipeline from Russia to China—Power of Siberia—wasn’t even completed until 2019.

What would it take for motivated dissidents/saboteurs to, say, blow up a critical compressor station?

Huh? What fantasy world do you live in? Are you interested in in actual discussion, or do you want to write a Tom Clancy novel?

Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but there have already been a few mysterious explosions at some key Russian facilities over the last year.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of “saboteurs.” Might want to take your discussion to the entertainment/pop culture forum.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of "Let us not hear about dissidents! Russia is righteous! Ukrainians are Nazis with biological weapons plotting with NATO to attack Russia! Russia is not targeting civilians! Anything to the contrary is WESTERN FAKE NEWS!"

Huh? I never said anything even close to that. I’m responding fully to the fact that it’s sort of ridiculous to think that dissidents could blow up a power compressor of a major LNG pipeline.

Russia's security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

It's starting to get ugly for Putin.

Yup. The world has spoken. If you want to be an aggressive invader in 2022 you will be a pariah.

The headline is so inaccurate. State propagandists did not disavow Putin at all.

DP. They disavowed the strategy and the idea of taking or denazifying Ukraine. They openly espoused packing up and immediately going home

And apparently the news host was rather unhappy that his learned guests didn't toe the party line!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moreover, the primary LNG pipeline from Russia to China—Power of Siberia—wasn’t even completed until 2019.

What would it take for motivated dissidents/saboteurs to, say, blow up a critical compressor station?

Huh? What fantasy world do you live in? Are you interested in in actual discussion, or do you want to write a Tom Clancy novel?

Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but there have already been a few mysterious explosions at some key Russian facilities over the last year.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of “saboteurs.” Might want to take your discussion to the entertainment/pop culture forum.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of "Let us not hear about dissidents! Russia is righteous! Ukrainians are Nazis with biological weapons plotting with NATO to attack Russia! Russia is not targeting civilians! Anything to the contrary is WESTERN FAKE NEWS!"

Huh? I never said anything even close to that. I’m responding fully to the fact that it’s sort of ridiculous to think that dissidents could blow up a power compressor of a major LNG pipeline.

Russia's security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

It's starting to get ugly for Putin.

Yup. The world has spoken. If you want to be an aggressive invader in 2022 you will be a pariah.

The headline is so inaccurate. State propagandists did not disavow Putin at all.

I don't care what the headline says. I don't care if Russian TV says. I know how many companies have pulled out of Russia, which means job loss, inability to get supplies, and it also toys with Russia's message. If Ukraine is in the wrong, why is everything shuttered in Russia? The cracks are what lead to civil war.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moreover, the primary LNG pipeline from Russia to China—Power of Siberia—wasn’t even completed until 2019.

What would it take for motivated dissidents/saboteurs to, say, blow up a critical compressor station?

Huh? What fantasy world do you live in? Are you interested in in actual discussion, or do you want to write a Tom Clancy novel?

Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but there have already been a few mysterious explosions at some key Russian facilities over the last year.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of “saboteurs.” Might want to take your discussion to the entertainment/pop culture forum.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of "Let us not hear about dissidents! Russia is righteous! Ukrainians are Nazis with biological weapons plotting with NATO to attack Russia! Russia is not targeting civilians! Anything to the contrary is WESTERN FAKE NEWS!"

Huh? I never said anything even close to that. I’m responding fully to the fact that it’s sort of ridiculous to think that dissidents could blow up a power compressor of a major LNG pipeline.

Russia's security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

It's starting to get ugly for Putin.

Yup. The world has spoken. If you want to be an aggressive invader in 2022 you will be a pariah.

The headline is so inaccurate. State propagandists did not disavow Putin at all.

I don't care what the headline says. I don't care if Russian TV says. I know how many companies have pulled out of Russia, which means job loss, inability to get supplies, and it also toys with Russia's message. If Ukraine is in the wrong, why is everything shuttered in Russia? The cracks are what lead to civil war.

Then you DO care. These are the first cracks, my friend. Part of the population is putting two and two together.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moreover, the primary LNG pipeline from Russia to China—Power of Siberia—wasn’t even completed until 2019.

What would it take for motivated dissidents/saboteurs to, say, blow up a critical compressor station?

Huh? What fantasy world do you live in? Are you interested in in actual discussion, or do you want to write a Tom Clancy novel?

Maybe you haven't been paying attention, but there have already been a few mysterious explosions at some key Russian facilities over the last year.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of “saboteurs.” Might want to take your discussion to the entertainment/pop culture forum.

And you seem obsessed with conspiracy theories of "Let us not hear about dissidents! Russia is righteous! Ukrainians are Nazis with biological weapons plotting with NATO to attack Russia! Russia is not targeting civilians! Anything to the contrary is WESTERN FAKE NEWS!"

Huh? I never said anything even close to that. I’m responding fully to the fact that it’s sort of ridiculous to think that dissidents could blow up a power compressor of a major LNG pipeline.

Russia's security situation is rapidly deteriorating.

It's starting to get ugly for Putin.

Yup. The world has spoken. If you want to be an aggressive invader in 2022 you will be a pariah.

The headline is so inaccurate. State propagandists did not disavow Putin at all.

I don't care what the headline says. I don't care if Russian TV says. I know how many companies have pulled out of Russia, which means job loss, inability to get supplies, and it also toys with Russia's message. If Ukraine is in the wrong, why is everything shuttered in Russia? The cracks are what lead to civil war.

The article is about Russian state TV rhetoric. If you actually care about following this situation, understanding the state TV rhetoric is very important.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.

What the f are you smoking? You think this is a tv show? You think they are just playing games? They are dying. If nato gets involved the Russians are done. These long columns of vehicles, Russian ships in the Black Sea, etc are all gone. Russians would not be able to move or resupply. Google The Highway of Death and that was 30 years ago.

I don’t think it is a tv show. What I do think is that it is suspicious that what was supposed to be one of the greatest armies in the world is turning out to be the Keystone cops. It seems just a bit too easy that they are being so well battered by a bunch the army, some former dentists and farmers in a small country. Putin is many things but he’s not stupid and it just doesn’t sit right with me. Hey I could be totally wrong but could they REALLY be this inept?

[Anonymous]

What are Russians supposed to think when this kind of nonsense is going on? Putin promised that conscripts would not be sent into battle - but now the bodies of Russian conscripts (at least those whose bodies the Russians bothered to recover) are coming home dead piled unceremoniously in trucks and trains, and the truth is out. Putin's lame answer: "Uh I did not know we sent conscripts!" Yeah right. Who's calling the shots in Russia? "We will find and prosecute the bad officers who did this." - throwing his own people under the bus for following orders from above. What a disgrace. It's mind boggling that some of the posters here are still trying to defend Putin and Russia. Get in touch with reality, folks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.

What the f are you smoking? You think this is a tv show? You think they are just playing games? They are dying. If nato gets involved the Russians are done. These long columns of vehicles, Russian ships in the Black Sea, etc are all gone. Russians would not be able to move or resupply. Google The Highway of Death and that was 30 years ago.

I don’t think it is a tv show. What I do think is that it is suspicious that what was supposed to be one of the greatest armies in the world is turning out to be the Keystone cops. It seems just a bit too easy that they are being so well battered by a bunch the army, some former dentists and farmers in a small country. Putin is many things but he’s not stupid and it just doesn’t sit right with me. Hey I could be totally wrong but could they REALLY be this inept?

Yes he could be. He believed his own propaganda.

1. Ukraine is not a small country. It's basically the size of California or Texas with slightly more people.
2. Since Crimea they have completely revamped their military and professionalized it.
3. Things like dry rotted tires, expired rations, and mud are not elaborate plots. They are the direct result of kleptocracy and top down planning. All of those problems are very common among extractive authoritarian regimes.

[Anonymous]

PP, no one is trying to defend Putin. There are one or two anti-NATO trolls that Jeff is keeping an eye on. Other posters are asking questions out of ignorance, and yet others are expressing concern.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is such a $hit show that so can’t help but wonder if it is all some kind of elaborate trap to make the West think they are incompetent and do the most horrible things to draw us into it thinking we could easily wipe it up and then bring out the big guns. Then they could claim that WE attacked them. However I have no experience in military things at all.

What the f are you smoking? You think this is a tv show? You think they are just playing games? They are dying. If nato gets involved the Russians are done. These long columns of vehicles, Russian ships in the Black Sea, etc are all gone. Russians would not be able to move or resupply. Google The Highway of Death and that was 30 years ago.

I don’t think it is a tv show. What I do think is that it is suspicious that what was supposed to be one of the greatest armies in the world is turning out to be the Keystone cops. It seems just a bit too easy that they are being so well battered by a bunch the army, some former dentists and farmers in a small country. Putin is many things but he’s not stupid and it just doesn’t sit right with me. Hey I could be totally wrong but could they REALLY be this inept?

The Ukraine has a standing military of 200k and reserves of 500k. These are not dentists and farmers. When you send 130k in to fight you are not playing mind games or trying to be cute. The Russians have sent their best in. Their spetsnaz and paratroopers(elite troops) have suffered very high casualties and have been forced off their objectives. Some of those units are no longer functioning. The Russians military has alway been horrible. In WW2 they went through basically 3 full armies before they started to figure out how to fight. They lost 6.8 million soldiers. In some battles they would lose 600k and all the equipment. Watch this documentary on Amazon -the soviet storm world war 2 in the east. It will give you a feel for how the Russians fight.