2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

DP Polls and the reporting on polls are meant to shape public sentiment rather than reflect it.

We can have a very interesting argument about this but again, unrelated to the simple fact that news outlets are misrepresenting the results of polls.

The misrepresenting is intentional. That was, I think, the PP's point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

DP Polls and the reporting on polls are meant to shape public sentiment rather than reflect it.

We can have a very interesting argument about this but again, unrelated to the simple fact that news outlets are misrepresenting the results of polls.

The misrepresenting is intentional. That was, I think, the PP's point.

It sounds like the PP is saying this is just how it is and that they don't care because polls aren't intended to measure public sentiment anyway. I don't think media outlets should be lying. I agree that it's intentional.

[Anonymous]

https://x.com/mtracey/status/1832834307913646469/photo/1



Polling seems off... 18-27 is not 50-50%.......

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://x.com/mtracey/status/1832834307913646469/photo/1



Polling seems off... 18-27 is not 50-50%.......

and the end of the day you can believe this poll, saying 18-27 are 50-50%. You can also believe Washington will win the Super Bowl....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Polls are pseudoscience that media reports in lieu of actually doing hard work. You can see why - they are relatively cheap stories and they have the shape of objectivity. So they can fill up the spaces between advertisements in a way that feels informative but doesn't require a lot of work and does not risk alienating too many potential customers.

. Polls are not "pseudoscience" lol. They aren't crystal balls either.

High quality polls can be useful for specific purposes. But that's not what is going on here. Two months out, the media can report on any junk poll and use it to further whatever narrative they want to. Come election day, if the September polls are way off, they can just pretend like voter sentiment changed. They don't have to acknowledge that their reporting didn't track with reality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

DP Polls and the reporting on polls are meant to shape public sentiment rather than reflect it.

We can have a very interesting argument about this but again, unrelated to the simple fact that news outlets are misrepresenting the results of polls.

The misrepresenting is intentional. That was, I think, the PP's point.

It sounds like the PP is saying this is just how it is and that they don't care because polls aren't intended to measure public sentiment anyway. I don't think media outlets should be lying. I agree that it's intentional.

PP here. It is a problem. Polls are supposed to measure public sentiment but they are now being used as a way to shape public views instead.

[Anonymous]

Are these polls as accurate as in 2022?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Are these polls as accurate as in 2022?

Didn’t the 2022 polls overstate R support? That was the supposed “red wave” that never materialized.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are these polls as accurate as in 2022?

Didn’t the 2022 polls overstate R support? That was the supposed “red wave” that never materialized.

People will quibble with “what the polls showed” but whatever the polls showed, the media had a field day for the six months leading up the election telling us how a sitting president’s party always loses at the midterms and how it would be the Red Wedding for the Democratic Party. When in fact Biden had a historic win during the midterms the media did not do a mea culpa, they never apologized, nothing. They doubled down on the Democratic hate.

I feel as if they’re going to massage every possible aspect of this including polls.

[Anonymous]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania


OZ WAS Up by 3 to 4 points in most polls

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona
was a TOSS up
Kelly won by 51-47...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia
Walker +1.4
he also lost.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are these polls as accurate as in 2022?

Didn’t the 2022 polls overstate R support? That was the supposed “red wave” that never materialized.

Why would it materialize? This thing is over. Trump lost last time and that was before he crushed roe and before he tried his coup and before he tried to kill his VP and had to get a new repellent one, and before he tanked the immigration bill and before a number of other failures. So many are going to get out there and crawl over broken glass to get rid of him. More then last time. And they have already decided this and don't need to see polls or answer polls or pay any attention to polls to do it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

DP Polls and the reporting on polls are meant to shape public sentiment rather than reflect it.

We can have a very interesting argument about this but again, unrelated to the simple fact that news outlets are misrepresenting the results of polls.

The misrepresenting is intentional. That was, I think, the PP's point.

It sounds like the PP is saying this is just how it is and that they don't care because polls aren't intended to measure public sentiment anyway. I don't think media outlets should be lying. I agree that it's intentional.

PP here. It is a problem. Polls are supposed to measure public sentiment but they are now being used as a way to shape public views instead.

That is the illusion. The claim is that polls are supposed to measure public sentiment, but the pollsters frequently tip the scales by how they phrase the question. There are people whose job it is to frame questions for polls to help tilt the results in the direction they want to show. For example, there will be different results from:

Who do you think should be president?
Who do you prefer to be president?
Who do you think will win the election for president?
Who do you think will be better as president?

There are many ways to bias the results in the questionaires. There are also ways to bias by who you choose to poll. You can call lists of any resident, any registered voter, voters who are likely to vote, voters who have voted in the past, and so on. So, when you look at the various polls, you have to analyze each pollsters to find out how they select their pollees, make sure that the balance of responders is close to representative of the voters who will vote, and also watch how they phrase their questions and if they are willing to be open about these things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Polls are pseudoscience that media reports in lieu of actually doing hard work. You can see why - they are relatively cheap stories and they have the shape of objectivity. So they can fill up the spaces between advertisements in a way that feels informative but doesn't require a lot of work and does not risk alienating too many potential customers.

This.
So-called journalists are lazy. They just want the most clicks for the least amount of effort.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are these polls as accurate as in 2022?

Didn’t the 2022 polls overstate R support? That was the supposed “red wave” that never materialized.

Why would it materialize? This thing is over. Trump lost last time and that was before he crushed roe and before he tried his coup and before he tried to kill his VP and had to get a new repellent one, and before he tanked the immigration bill and before a number of other failures. So many are going to get out there and crawl over broken glass to get rid of him. More then last time. And they have already decided this and don't need to see polls or answer polls or pay any attention to polls to do it.

I hope you are correct.

The ugliness of MAGA is difficult to ignore though. As is Trump’s cognitive decline, racism and misogyny. And it’s hard to believe people truly believe he will do anything to make anything better for anyone other than himself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

DP Polls and the reporting on polls are meant to shape public sentiment rather than reflect it.

We can have a very interesting argument about this but again, unrelated to the simple fact that news outlets are misrepresenting the results of polls.

The misrepresenting is intentional. That was, I think, the PP's point.

It sounds like the PP is saying this is just how it is and that they don't care because polls aren't intended to measure public sentiment anyway. I don't think media outlets should be lying. I agree that it's intentional.

PP here. It is a problem. Polls are supposed to measure public sentiment but they are now being used as a way to shape public views instead.

That is the illusion. The claim is that polls are supposed to measure public sentiment, but the pollsters frequently tip the scales by how they phrase the question. There are people whose job it is to frame questions for polls to help tilt the results in the direction they want to show. For example, there will be different results from:

Who do you think should be president?
Who do you prefer to be president?
Who do you think will win the election for president?
Who do you think will be better as president?

There are many ways to bias the results in the questionaires. There are also ways to bias by who you choose to poll. You can call lists of any resident, any registered voter, voters who are likely to vote, voters who have voted in the past, and so on. So, when you look at the various polls, you have to analyze each pollsters to find out how they select their pollees, make sure that the balance of responders is close to representative of the voters who will vote, and also watch how they phrase their questions and if they are willing to be open about these things.

Exactly this.