2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

How does this show is anything if the numbers are not tied to states? At best it is trivia. No one should be freaking out by this poll. I’d like to see state by state polls especially in battleground states.

Trump can lose the popular vote by 3 points and win the electoral college. If he wins by 1 in the national popular vote this will be an embarrassing landslide. Biden won the national popular vote by over 4 points and the election was still a nail biter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

How does this show is anything if the numbers are not tied to states? At best it is trivia. No one should be freaking out by this poll. I’d like to see state by state polls especially in battleground states.

Trump can lose the popular vote by 3 points and win the electoral college. If he wins by 1 in the national popular vote this will be an embarrassing landslide. Biden won the national popular vote by over 4 points and the election was still a nail biter.

It wasn’t a nail biter if you actually went back to election night. Fox called AZ for Biden late election night, which would have been the ballgame, and then retracted their call under pressure from Trump. Of course, Biden ended up winning AZ. But then none of the remaining states wanted to be the one to call it even though it was looking very favorable for Biden. After PA finally declared for Biden the Saturday after the election, the other states declared quickly. But NV and AZ are much smaller and didn’t want all the attention so they let PA be the tipping point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Interestingly, it was exactly 8 years ago tomorrow that Hillary Clinton referred to Trump’s supporters as a “Basket of Deplorables” and absolutely tanked her campaign. If Kamala Harris can get through September 9th unscathed, that will be a powerful symbolic victory.

FWIW I’m not sure you can compare polling results across elections like this because pollsters adjust their methodology from cycle to cycle.

These polls are damning for Kamala. If nothing changes Trump will win. Unfortunately, expectations are lower for trump with the debate. So if he does ok and Kamala doesn’t knock the debate out of the park, this will ruin her odds of winning.

If nothing changes, it’s still a tight race. He will not necessarily win. It could go either way. Swing state polls are mostly tied.

We are waiting to hear her make very strong statements about consequences for criminals and about imnigration. Will be listening closely during the debate.

Who is “we?” What group do you speak for?

Swing voters. Independents. Republicans who don't like Trump. People fed up with criminals who are released to commit more crimes. Etc, etc

Then they for sure shouldn’t vote for the guy who got his little minions in Congress to kill the immigration bill, you know, lest it be too effective.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:She’s really in a Catch 22.


Either she has to embrace the past 3.5 years (which voters understandably will reject) or she pleads for a change in policies (which then beg the question of why hasn’t she already done).

She wasn’t the president. You understand that right?

Kamala Harris willingly become the number 2 political character in this current Administration. She owns everything it has proposed and accomplished, good and bad. Her polling should reflect that.

It doesn’t.
Her polling indicates people see her as something different and new.

The first few weeks. Now as people actually start to look at her polices (lack of them) and lack of interviews, flip flopping on immigration and fracking, they don’t like what they see.

So she has peaked and now polls showing that the emperor has no clothes.

Nah.
Polling indicates we are very polarized and this race is tight.
Polling also shows she is much more popular than Biden and the democrats were lucky he decided to step aside..
No reason for dems to get complacent, this race is going to be way too close for comfort.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:She’s really in a Catch 22.


Either she has to embrace the past 3.5 years (which voters understandably will reject) or she pleads for a change in policies (which then beg the question of why hasn’t she already done).

She wasn’t the president. You understand that right?

Kamala Harris willingly become the number 2 political character in this current Administration. She owns everything it has proposed and accomplished, good and bad. Her polling should reflect that.

It doesn’t.
Her polling indicates people see her as something different and new.

The first few weeks. Now as people actually start to look at her polices (lack of them) and lack of interviews, flip flopping on immigration and fracking, they don’t like what they see.

So she has peaked and now polls showing that the emperor has no clothes.

eh. Trump has peaked, too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:She’s really in a Catch 22.


Either she has to embrace the past 3.5 years (which voters understandably will reject) or she pleads for a change in policies (which then beg the question of why hasn’t she already done).

She wasn’t the president. You understand that right?

Kamala Harris willingly become the number 2 political character in this current Administration. She owns everything it has proposed and accomplished, good and bad. Her polling should reflect that.

It doesn’t.
Her polling indicates people see her as something different and new.

The first few weeks. Now as people actually start to look at her polices (lack of them) and lack of interviews, flip flopping on immigration and fracking, they don’t like what they see.

So she has peaked and now polls showing that the emperor has no clothes.

Nah.
Polling indicates we are very polarized and this race is tight.
Polling also shows she is much more popular than Biden and the democrats were lucky he decided to step aside..
No reason for dems to get complacent, this race is going to be way too close for comfort.

Releasing polls showing declining support was just one of the tools used to drive Biden out. He has more appeal to swing voters than Harris.

[Anonymous]

As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

[Anonymous]

Polls are pseudoscience that media reports in lieu of actually doing hard work. You can see why - they are relatively cheap stories and they have the shape of objectivity. So they can fill up the spaces between advertisements in a way that feels informative but doesn't require a lot of work and does not risk alienating too many potential customers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Polls are pseudoscience that media reports in lieu of actually doing hard work. You can see why - they are relatively cheap stories and they have the shape of objectivity. So they can fill up the spaces between advertisements in a way that feels informative but doesn't require a lot of work and does not risk alienating too many potential customers.

. Polls are not "pseudoscience" lol. They aren't crystal balls either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Polls are pseudoscience that media reports in lieu of actually doing hard work. You can see why - they are relatively cheap stories and they have the shape of objectivity. So they can fill up the spaces between advertisements in a way that feels informative but doesn't require a lot of work and does not risk alienating too many potential customers.

I agree that the media has been increasingly focusing on polls (ie the horserace) for decades now, over substance and issues, to the detriment of the voting populace.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

DP Polls and the reporting on polls are meant to shape public sentiment rather than reflect it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a pretty left wing person it's disturbing to see some major media outlets misrepresenting the polls. For example, this morning, ABC put out this piece about a two-week old poll claiming Harris's support is "rising", and it's incredibly misleading (it actually says a deep dive analysis of an old poll showed Harris has more support among likely voters than Trump) - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-support-rises-voters-poll/story?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhfacebook&utm_content=null&id=113465657

Also the Washington Post claims Harris is 2 points up in Pennsylvania based on polling averages but they actually include a lot of Biden vs Trump polls from before he dropped out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/?itid=sn_elections_3/

The New York Times does a little better but even then they try to underplay their recent poll showing Trump being ahead, suggesting the result is "surprising", even though it's not the first poll to show Trump ahead nationally and many previous national polls have shown them being pretty close anyone so Trump being up by 1 point is not really surprising to me (even though I am disappointed).

Polls are only one indicator of support.

A holistic look at the race shows Trump has peaked, he has less $$ on hand, he has no ground game, enthusiasm is down.

Harris continues to outperform in fundraising, volunteer recruitment and activities, and high enthusiasm.

Voter registration for Democrats or people most likely to vote for Harris is through the roof.

I’d rather be Harris than Trump.

That is a perfectly reasonable argument that is unrelated to my post about major news outlets blatantly misrepresenting the polls.

DP Polls and the reporting on polls are meant to shape public sentiment rather than reflect it.

We can have a very interesting argument about this but again, unrelated to the simple fact that news outlets are misrepresenting the results of polls.