Military observations on Ukraine invasion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ BTW, America has publicly rejected the Polish offer of using the German US base as a location for the exchange.

I'm sure negotiations are ongoing to get them to shut up and have them enter Ukrainian territory in an unobtrusive way...

I’m giving it a week before some European leader says “America, you have always been a good friend of Europe; but your are always late to the game. Go ahead and do your American isolationist thing and show up when you are ready.”

Literally any EU leader has the chance to be a world leader; some actor from Ukraine as their president currently has the title.

The U.S. is behind all of this. We just don’t want our fingerprints on it this publicly. Poland was not supposed to ID the US base in Germany as the exchange place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ BTW, America has publicly rejected the Polish offer of using the German US base as a location for the exchange.

I'm sure negotiations are ongoing to get them to shut up and have them enter Ukrainian territory in an unobtrusive way...

I’m giving it a week before some European leader says “America, you have always been a good friend of Europe; but your are always late to the game. Go ahead and do your American isolationist thing and show up when you are ready.”

Literally any EU leader has the chance to be a world leader; some actor from Ukraine as their president currently has the title.

The U.S. is behind all of this. We just don’t want our fingerprints on it this publicly. Poland was not supposed to ID the US base in Germany as the exchange place.

I think we have made our position mighty clear. How is a plane different than all the other military equipment we have sent? Or the billions of dollars package on military aid we are about to send? Send them the planes!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ BTW, America has publicly rejected the Polish offer of using the German US base as a location for the exchange.

I'm sure negotiations are ongoing to get them to shut up and have them enter Ukrainian territory in an unobtrusive way...

I’m giving it a week before some European leader says “America, you have always been a good friend of Europe; but your are always late to the game. Go ahead and do your American isolationist thing and show up when you are ready.”

Literally any EU leader has the chance to be a world leader; some actor from Ukraine as their president currently has the title.

I think Churchill famously once said something like, "Americans always do the right thing, after exhausting every other option."

I don't think he really said it, but it sure is appropriate

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

I left Lockheed Martin a few years ago but f16s would roll off multiple daily from the line. They are easy planes to build after 30 years of doing it.
The JSF was nearing one a day when I left so I am sure there are plenty of f16s.
It is more a matter of the customization of block Poland wants.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ BTW, America has publicly rejected the Polish offer of using the German US base as a location for the exchange.

I'm sure negotiations are ongoing to get them to shut up and have them enter Ukrainian territory in an unobtrusive way...

I’m giving it a week before some European leader says “America, you have always been a good friend of Europe; but your are always late to the game. Go ahead and do your American isolationist thing and show up when you are ready.”

Literally any EU leader has the chance to be a world leader; some actor from Ukraine as their president currently has the title.

The U.S. is behind all of this. We just don’t want our fingerprints on it this publicly. Poland was not supposed to ID the US base in Germany as the exchange place.

Correct. But all the communication blunders waste so much time and are so frustrating for everyone involved.

Obviously Russia knows we're all behind Ukraine armaments. But in our weird human world, as long as there isn't a red line moment such as enforcement of a no-fly zone with our pilots, and it can't point to one instance of our armies physically setting foot in Ukraine to deliver arms, we're cool, no WWIII.

So our leaders have to be extremely careful at what they declare publicly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

I left Lockheed Martin a few years ago but f16s would roll off multiple daily from the line. They are easy planes to build after 30 years of doing it.
The JSF was nearing one a day when I left so I am sure there are plenty of f16s.
It is more a matter of the customization of block Poland wants.

Is that something they could work on themselves, post delivery?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

I left Lockheed Martin a few years ago but f16s would roll off multiple daily from the line. They are easy planes to build after 30 years of doing it.
The JSF was nearing one a day when I left so I am sure there are plenty of f16s.
It is more a matter of the customization of block Poland wants.

Is that something they could work on themselves, post delivery?

DP the polish pilots have to train up on the new planes and systems. It is not like driving a new car. I really would not want to reduce my forces at this time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

It’s a PR stunt. If they were serious there would not be a press release. The planes would just magically show up in the Ukraine. Poland would fuel and arm the planes fly them to an abandoned airfield close to the border where the Ukraine pilots would take them. The Russians would never know.

[Anonymous]

I hope that tank column will freeze now that the temperatures will drop to -10C.

And then I hope it melts and they get stuck in mud.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ BTW, America has publicly rejected the Polish offer of using the German US base as a location for the exchange.

I'm sure negotiations are ongoing to get them to shut up and have them enter Ukrainian territory in an unobtrusive way...

I’m giving it a week before some European leader says “America, you have always been a good friend of Europe; but your are always late to the game. Go ahead and do your American isolationist thing and show up when you are ready.”

Literally any EU leader has the chance to be a world leader; some actor from Ukraine as their president currently has the title.

The U.S. is behind all of this. We just don’t want our fingerprints on it this publicly. Poland was not supposed to ID the US base in Germany as the exchange place.

I think we have made our position mighty clear. How is a plane different than all the other military equipment we have sent? Or the billions of dollars package on military aid we are about to send? Send them the planes!

It is different. Now that base would be a target. Yes even in Germany. They would even have some world opinion with them. We are in a different world. Let the cold warriors run the new cold war.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Ukraine has about 45, so 98 is a huge addition.

Wow, that's a huge infusion at the same time Russia is transporting in plumbing repair vans for reinforcement.

It’s about two squadrons worth of MiGs (9.12 and a couple of UBs) that were due to be replaced anyway with F-16V. It’s a great gesture for sure and I love how the Poles are leading NATOs response but let’s keep things in perspective.

Poland put Biden in a tough spot. Poland basically is saying step up America and do the deal out of Germany so we are all in this together.

OK. So conduct the transfer in Moldova.

But get this done extremely quickly. The Migs are desperately needed today!

The Poles are scared to do this and they have NATO backing. Moldova would be nuts to agree to this.

I really don't understand the reluctance for NATO countries though. They are opening providing billions in weapons to Ukraine. I don't see how fighter jets crosses some line that they haven't already crossed. I suspect the issue is more about whether the US can really replace the Polish MiGs in any timely fashion. I doubt the US has a couple dozen F-16s just sitting around ready to send to Poland.

The planes are diffwerent. they can attack Russia. Other weapons are really for use in the Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hope that tank column will freeze now that the temperatures will drop to -10C.

And then I hope it melts and they get stuck in mud.

Problem is that Ukrainians don’t have heat and will also die.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At what point does China look at the mess Russia is mired in, with fully half their army ground forces committed and suffering 8-10% casualties, and decide that right NOW is the best time to take Siberia?

They’ve had plans of doing this for decades. They even call Siberia the “northern resource area” in internal discussions.

If I were Xi Jinping, I’d go for it right now. Start with a decapitating nuclear strike, accept some losses to a Russian retaliatory strike, and send my entire army into Siberia.

Seems unlikely. I think it's more likely they leverage Russia's economic mess to get lots of favorable terms on buying oil, gas and other commodities from Russia. Russia has little choice. China is the only major buyer left for them. Unfortunately, I think that's the weak part of the western strategy. We're likely to drive Russia into China's arms and make them a vassal state of China.

If this were to keep up, we would sanction anyone dealing in Russian oil which would mean China would have to give up its international trade with the US. If forced to choose they would choose the US.

We are not going to sanction China. It would be way too disruptive. The sanctions against Russia are going to be massively disruptive. Adding China to that mix would multiply that times 100.

We would not sanction China directly but we would put sanctions on anyone buying Russian oil. This will come after Russia destroyes the capital city.