2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).

Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%

Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.

Those voters are notorious for poor turnout. The old voters who support Trump are way more likely to turn out.

This isn’t 1982 anymore. With early voting and social media and targeted GOTV, there’s a lot more motivation and opportunity for young people to vote.

dp... I still don't think under 30 will vote in large numbers.

It's the Independent and female voters that Harris needs to win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).

Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%

Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.

Those voters are notorious for poor turnout. The old voters who support Trump are way more likely to turn out.

This isn’t 1982 anymore. With early voting and social media and targeted GOTV, there’s a lot more motivation and opportunity for young people to vote.

dp... I still don't think under 30 will vote in large numbers.

It's the Independent and female voters that Harris needs to win.

Why do you think people under 30 won't be voting? You think these folks want to sleepwalk into another Trump presidency?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If there were no Electoral College, the Dems would have a firm control on the White House. Instead of mitigating a Tyranny of the Majority, the EC and Senate are promoting a Tyranny of the Minority. That isn't how it was supposed to work.

That's EXACTLY how it was supposed to work. The electoral college exists because it was the only way Slaveowner States would agree to join the Union.

"Tyranny of the Majority" is an an argument for the Constitution and Bill of Rights, not Electoral College.

Take this to another thread. This is for polls and brief commentary about polling.

[Anonymous]

RealClearPolitics

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RealClearPolitics

Harris is such a good candidate lol!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RealClearPolitics

It means they are doing a better job with polling now, and Trump supporters are way more loud now than they were in 2016 and even 2020. A lot of people voting for Harris will not respond to the polls. In 2022 they thought the red wave was coming and it never came. This means be all about turn out. For people that think Trump already won, just stay home and relax on Election Day. No need to go vote since he already won

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RealClearPolitics

Harris is such a good candidate lol!!!

? they were wrong about 2016, and some of 2020 (Biden won GA). What makes them right about 2024?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RealClearPolitics

It means they are doing a better job with polling now, and Trump supporters are way more loud now than they were in 2016 and even 2020. A lot of people voting for Harris will not respond to the polls. In 2022 they thought the red wave was coming and it never came. This means be all about turn out. For people that think Trump already won, just stay home and relax on Election Day. No need to go vote since he already won

I'd also add the electorate demographics have changed a bunch, especially in places like Florida. Lots of the silent generation and boomers have died off.

[Anonymous]

biggest worry if in the case Harris wins the blue wall.
and losses Arizona and Nevada and ends up with 270-268. if an elector votes again Harris, she will have 269 not enough to be President.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:biggest worry if in the case Harris wins the blue wall.
and losses Arizona and Nevada and ends up with 270-268. if an elector votes again Harris, she will have 269 not enough to be President.

Electors aren’t allowed to do that anymore.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-electoral-college-faithless-electors/2020/07/06/cf88f706-bf8f-11ea-b178-bb7b05b94af1_story.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:biggest worry if in the case Harris wins the blue wall.
and losses Arizona and Nevada and ends up with 270-268. if an elector votes again Harris, she will have 269 not enough to be President.

what the heck does Arizona or Nevada want with Trump? He is terrible and will do nothing for Arizona or Nevada other than continue to con them.

+1 Polling for the abortion referenda in AZ and NV are running at 75-25 for (posted in the Roe thread.) Trump’s not winning in that environment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If there were no Electoral College, the Dems would have a firm control on the White House. Instead of mitigating a Tyranny of the Majority, the EC and Senate are promoting a Tyranny of the Minority. That isn't how it was supposed to work.

That's EXACTLY how it was supposed to work. The electoral college exists because it was the only way Slaveowner States would agree to join the Union.

"Tyranny of the Majority" is an an argument for the Constitution and Bill of Rights, not Electoral College.

So, basically we are at the mercy of racist white people from over 200 years ago?

Basically

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RealClearPolitics

It means they are doing a better job with polling now, and Trump supporters are way more loud now than they were in 2016 and even 2020. A lot of people voting for Harris will not respond to the polls. In 2022 they thought the red wave was coming and it never came. This means be all about turn out. For people that think Trump already won, just stay home and relax on Election Day. No need to go vote since he already won

I see you have it all figured out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If she gets independent votes she will win..

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-
election-in-swing-states/

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).


Independent voters
AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters under 30
AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
Women voters
AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%

Yes. And the under 30 group is overwhelmingly favoring her. If they all turn out to vote, that would put her on top as well.

Those voters are notorious for poor turnout. The old voters who support Trump are way more likely to turn out.

This has all changed in the last four years. Traditionally, the under 30 demographic voted at under 35%. In 2020, they came out at 50% to vote against Trump. And then RvW was overturned.

In 2022 and 2023, in states where reproductive rights were on the ballot, the under 30 demographic registered new voters and showed up at record numbers. The 2018 mid-term elections were the highest percentage of youth voters ever. 2022 was the second highest and was bigger than in 2020. And 2023 was the highest turnout for an off-year election ever.

2024 has one of the highest registration rates of new voters ever.

Voters 18-29 are coming out in force to vote on elections that matter to them. Especially in those states where reproductive rights are on the ballot (including swing states AZ and NV), the youth vote will be significant. Voters 18-29 are the most impacted by the abortion restrictions and even in red states, there are young women, but also young men that are coming out in record numbers to register and vote. Nationwide, youth voters are 75=90% likely to vote for abortion rights. And when the come out to vote for the most important issue for them, they also cast votes in races, and they definitely lean over 2/3 in favor of Democrats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RealClearPolitics

Harris is such a good candidate lol!!!

She wins with this results. Let’s face it there is no movement to Trump. Trump has no momentum, no energy and undecided are not voting for him. Trump voters are not showing up for his rallies and will not show up to vote.